Predictive monitoring is a subfield of process mining that aims to predict how a running case will unfold in the future. One of its main challenges is forecasting the sequence of activities that will occur from a given point in time -- suffix prediction -- . Most approaches to the suffix prediction problem learn to predict the suffix by learning how to predict the next activity only, not learning from the whole suffix during the training phase. This paper proposes a novel architecture based on an encoder-decoder model with an attention mechanism that decouples the representation learning of the prefixes from the inference phase, predicting only the activities of the suffix. During the inference phase, this architecture is extended with a heuristic search algorithm that improves the selection of the activity for each index of the suffix. Our approach has been tested using 12 public event logs against 6 different state-of-the-art proposals, showing that it significantly outperforms these proposals.

Temporal exponential random graph models (TERGM) are powerful statistical models that can be used to infer the temporal pattern of edge formation and elimination in complex networks (e.g., social networks). TERGMs can also be used in a generative capacity to predict longitudinal time series data in these evolving graphs. However, parameter estimation within this framework fails to capture many real-world properties of social networks, including: triadic relationships, small world characteristics, and social learning theories which could be used to constrain the probabilistic estimation of dyadic covariates. Here, we propose triadic temporal exponential random graph models (TTERGM) to fill this void, which includes these hierarchical network relationships within the graph model. We represent social network learning theory as an additional probability distribution that optimizes Markov chains in the graph vector space. The new parameters are then approximated via Monte Carlo maximum likelihood estimation. We show that our TTERGM model achieves improved fidelity and more accurate predictions compared to several benchmark methods on GitHub network data.

Analyzing the behavior of complex interdependent networks requires complete information about the network topology and the interdependent links across networks. For many applications such as critical infrastructure systems, understanding network interdependencies is crucial to anticipate cascading failures and plan for disruptions. However, data on the topology of individual networks are often publicly unavailable due to privacy and security concerns. Additionally, interdependent links are often only revealed in the aftermath of a disruption as a result of cascading failures. We propose a scalable nonparametric Bayesian approach to reconstruct the topology of interdependent infrastructure networks from observations of cascading failures. Metropolis-Hastings algorithm coupled with the infrastructure-dependent proposal are employed to increase the efficiency of sampling possible graphs. Results of reconstructing a synthetic system of interdependent infrastructure networks demonstrate that the proposed approach outperforms existing methods in both accuracy and computational time. We further apply this approach to reconstruct the topology of one synthetic and two real-world systems of interdependent infrastructure networks, including gas-power-water networks in Shelby County, TN, USA, and an interdependent system of power-water networks in Italy, to demonstrate the general applicability of the approach.

Bayesian adaptive experimental design is a form of active learning, which chooses samples to maximize the information they give about uncertain parameters. Prior work has shown that other forms of active learning can suffer from active learning bias, where unrepresentative sampling leads to inconsistent parameter estimates. We show that active learning bias can also afflict Bayesian adaptive experimental design, depending on model misspecification. We analyze the case of estimating a linear model, and show that worse misspecification implies more severe active learning bias. At the same time, model classes incorporating more "noise" -- i.e., specifying higher inherent variance in observations -- suffer less from active learning bias. Finally, we demonstrate empirically that insights from the linear model can predict the presence and degree of active learning bias in nonlinear contexts, namely in a (simulated) preference learning experiment. Statistical theory often assumes learners' access to large amounts of representative training data, drawn from the distribution which is the target of inference or prediction. Nonetheless, such access is not feasible for many applications. Training data may be scarce (e.g., learning to identify a rare medical condition; Henry, Hager, Pronovost, and Saria (2015)), difficult or expensive to obtain (e.g., requiring human coders for text; Chen, Lasko, Mei, Denny, and Xu (2015)), or time-consuming to collect (e.g., obtaining user preferences online; Cavagnaro, Gonzalez, Myung, and Pitt (2013); Golovin, Krause, and Ray (2010)). One response is to abandon random sampling for adaptive sampling methods, choosing data points in sequence to be as informative as possible.

This report summarises the outcomes of a systematic literature search to identify Bayesian network models used to support decision making in healthcare. After describing the search methodology, the selected research papers are briefly reviewed, with the view to identify publicly available models and datasets that are well suited to analysis using the causal interventional analysis software tool developed in Wang B, Lyle C, Kwiatkowska M (2021). Finally, an experimental evaluation of applying the software on a selection of models is carried out and preliminary results are reported.

Workloads in modern cloud data centers are becoming increasingly complex. The number of workloads running in cloud data centers has been growing exponentially for the last few years, and cloud service providers (CSP) have been supporting on-demand services in real-time. Realizing the growing complexity of cloud environment and cloud workloads, hardware vendors such as Intel and AMD are increasingly introducing cloud-specific workload acceleration features in their CPU platforms. These features are typically targeted towards popular and commonly-used cloud workloads. Nonetheless, uncommon, customer-specific workloads (unknown workloads), if their characteristics are different from common workloads (known workloads), may not realize the potential of the underlying platform. To address this problem of realizing the full potential of the underlying platform, we develop a machine learning based technique to characterize, profile and predict workloads running in the cloud environment. Experimental evaluation of our technique demonstrates good prediction performance. We also develop techniques to analyze the performance of the model in a standalone manner.

Likelihood-based, or explicit, deep generative models use neural networks to construct flexible high-dimensional densities. This formulation directly contradicts the manifold hypothesis, which states that observed data lies on a low-dimensional manifold embedded in high-dimensional ambient space. In this paper we investigate the pathologies of maximum-likelihood training in the presence of this dimensionality mismatch. We formally prove that degenerate optima are achieved wherein the manifold itself is learned but not the distribution on it, a phenomenon we call manifold overfitting. We propose a class of two-step procedures consisting of a dimensionality reduction step followed by maximum-likelihood density estimation, and prove that they recover the data-generating distribution in the nonparametric regime, thus avoiding manifold overfitting. We also show that these procedures enable density estimation on the manifolds learned by implicit models, such as generative adversarial networks, hence addressing a major shortcoming of these models. Several recently proposed methods are instances of our two-step procedures; we thus unify, extend, and theoretically justify a large class of models.

Hierarchical Bayesian Poisson regression models (HBPRMs) provide a flexible modeling approach of the relationship between predictors and count response variables. The applications of HBPRMs to large-scale datasets require efficient inference algorithms due to the high computational cost of inferring many model parameters based on random sampling. Although Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms have been widely used for Bayesian inference, sampling using this class of algorithms is time-consuming for applications with large-scale data and time-sensitive decision-making, partially due to the non-conjugacy of many models. To overcome this limitation, this research develops an approximate Gibbs sampler (AGS) to efficiently learn the HBPRMs while maintaining the inference accuracy. In the proposed sampler, the data likelihood is approximated with Gaussian distribution such that the conditional posterior of the coefficients has a closed-form solution. Numerical experiments using real and synthetic datasets with small and large counts demonstrate the superior performance of AGS in comparison to the state-of-the-art sampling algorithm, especially for large datasets.

This study concerns the formulation and application of Bayesian optimal experimental design to symbolic discovery, which is the inference from observational data of predictive models taking general functional forms. We apply constrained first-order methods to optimize an appropriate selection criterion, using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo to sample from the prior. A step for computing the predictive distribution, involving convolution, is computed via either numerical integration, or via fast transform methods.

Machine Learning algorithms have had a profound impact on the field of computer science over the past few decades. These algorithms performance is greatly influenced by the representations that are derived from the data in the learning process. The representations learned in a successful learning process should be concise, discrete, meaningful, and able to be applied across a variety of tasks. A recent effort has been directed toward developing Deep Learning models, which have proven to be particularly effective at capturing high-dimensional, non-linear, and multi-modal characteristics. In this work, we discuss the principles and developments that have been made in the process of learning representations, and converting them into desirable applications. In addition, for each framework or model, the key issues and open challenges, as well as the advantages, are examined.