For policymakers wishing to make evidence-based decisions, one of the challenges is how to combine the relevant information and evidence in a coherent and defensible manner in order to formulate and evaluate candidate policies. Policymakers often need to rely on experts with disparate fields of expertise when making policy choices in complex, multi-faceted, dynamic environments such as those dealing with ecosystem services. The pressures affecting the survival and pollination capabilities of honey bees (Apis mellifera), wild bees and other pollinators is well-documented, but incomplete. In order to estimate the potential effectiveness of various candidate policies to support pollination services, there is an urgent need to quantify the effect of various combinations of variables on the pollination ecosystem service, utilising available information, models and expert judgement. In this paper, we present a new application of the integrating decision support system methodology for combining inputs from multiple panels of experts to evaluate policies to support an abundant pollinator population.

Strategic test allocation plays a major role in the control of both emerging and existing pandemics (e.g., COVID-19, HIV). Widespread testing supports effective epidemic control by (1) reducing transmission via identifying cases, and (2) tracking outbreak dynamics to inform targeted interventions. However, infectious disease surveillance presents unique statistical challenges. For instance, the true outcome of interest - one's positive infectious status, is often a latent variable. In addition, presence of both network and temporal dependence reduces the data to a single observation. As testing entire populations regularly is neither efficient nor feasible, standard approaches to testing recommend simple rule-based testing strategies (e.g., symptom based, contact tracing), without taking into account individual risk. In this work, we study an adaptive sequential design involving n individuals over a period of {\tau} time-steps, which allows for unspecified dependence among individuals and across time. Our causal target parameter is the mean latent outcome we would have obtained after one time-step, if, starting at time t given the observed past, we had carried out a stochastic intervention that maximizes the outcome under a resource constraint. We propose an Online Super Learner for adaptive sequential surveillance that learns the optimal choice of tests strategies over time while adapting to the current state of the outbreak. Relying on a series of working models, the proposed method learns across samples, through time, or both: based on the underlying (unknown) structure in the data. We present an identification result for the latent outcome in terms of the observed data, and demonstrate the superior performance of the proposed strategy in a simulation modeling a residential university environment during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Two of the main principles underlying the life cycle of an artificial intelligence (AI) module in communication networks are adaptation and monitoring. Adaptation refers to the need to adjust the operation of an AI module depending on the current conditions; while monitoring requires measures of the reliability of an AI module's decisions. Classical frequentist learning methods for the design of AI modules fall short on both counts of adaptation and monitoring, catering to one-off training and providing overconfident decisions. This paper proposes a solution to address both challenges by integrating meta-learning with Bayesian learning. As a specific use case, the problems of demodulation and equalization over a fading channel based on the availability of few pilots are studied. Meta-learning processes pilot information from multiple frames in order to extract useful shared properties of effective demodulators across frames. The resulting trained demodulators are demonstrated, via experiments, to offer better calibrated soft decisions, at the computational cost of running an ensemble of networks at run time. The capacity to quantify uncertainty in the model parameter space is further leveraged by extending Bayesian meta-learning to an active setting. In it, the designer can select in a sequential fashion channel conditions under which to generate data for meta-learning from a channel simulator. Bayesian active meta-learning is seen in experiments to significantly reduce the number of frames required to obtain efficient adaptation procedure for new frames.

With the increased use of machine learning systems for decision making, questions about the fairness properties of such systems start to take center stage. Most existing work on algorithmic fairness assume complete observation of features at prediction time, as is the case for popular notions like statistical parity and equal opportunity. However, this is not sufficient for models that can make predictions with partial observation as we could miss patterns of bias and incorrectly certify a model to be fair. To address this, a recently introduced notion of fairness asks whether the model exhibits any discrimination pattern, in which an individual characterized by (partial) feature observations, receives vastly different decisions merely by disclosing one or more sensitive attributes such as gender and race. By explicitly accounting for partial observations, this provides a much more fine-grained notion of fairness. In this paper, we propose an algorithm to search for discrimination patterns in a general class of probabilistic models, namely probabilistic circuits. Previously, such algorithms were limited to naive Bayes classifiers which make strong independence assumptions; by contrast, probabilistic circuits provide a unifying framework for a wide range of tractable probabilistic models and can even be compiled from certain classes of Bayesian networks and probabilistic programs, making our method much more broadly applicable. Furthermore, for an unfair model, it may be useful to quickly find discrimination patterns and distill them for better interpretability. As such, we also propose a sampling-based approach to more efficiently mine discrimination patterns, and introduce new classes of patterns such as minimal, maximal, and Pareto optimal patterns that can effectively summarize exponentially many discrimination patterns

This work studies networked agents cooperating to track a dynamical state of nature under partial information. The proposed algorithm is a distributed Bayesian filtering algorithm for finite-state hidden Markov models (HMMs). It can be used for sequential state estimation tasks, as well as for modeling opinion formation over social networks under dynamic environments. We show that the disagreement with the optimal centralized solution is asymptotically bounded for the class of geometrically ergodic state transition models, which includes rapidly changing models. We also derive recursions for calculating the probability of error and establish convergence under Gaussian observation models. Simulations are provided to illustrate the theory and to compare against alternative approaches.

Machine learning algorithms have revolutionized different fields, including natural language processing, computer vision, signal processing, and medical data processing. Despite the excellent capabilities of machine learning algorithms in various tasks and areas, the performance of these models mainly deteriorates when there is a shift in the test and training data distributions. This gap occurs due to the violation of the fundamental assumption that the training and test data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d). In real-world scenarios where collecting data from all possible domains for training is costly and even impossible, the i.i.d assumption can hardly be satisfied. The problem is even more severe in the case of medical images and signals because it requires either expensive equipment or a meticulous experimentation setup to collect data, even for a single domain. Additionally, the decrease in performance may have severe consequences in the analysis of medical records. As a result of such problems, the ability to generalize and adapt under distribution shifts (domain generalization (DG) and domain adaptation (DA)) is essential for the analysis of medical data. This paper provides the first systematic review of DG and DA on functional brain signals to fill the gap of the absence of a comprehensive study in this era. We provide detailed explanations and categorizations of datasets, approaches, and architectures used in DG and DA on functional brain images. We further address the attention-worthy future tracks in this field.

Our aim of writing this manuscript is to found novel rough-approximation operators inspired by an abstract structure called "supra-topology". This approach is more relaxed than topological ones and extends the scope of applications because an intersection condition of topology is dispensed. Firstly, we generate eight types of supra-topologies using \(N_k\)-neighborhood systems induced from any arbitrary relation. We elucidate the relationships between them and investigate the conditions under which some of them are identical. Then, we create new rough sets models from these supra-topologies and present the main characterizations of their lower and upper approximations.

The task of topical segmentation is well studied, but previous work has mostly addressed it in the context of structured, well-defined segments, such as segmentation into paragraphs, chapters, or segmenting text that originated from multiple sources. We tackle the task of segmenting running (spoken) narratives, which poses hitherto unaddressed challenges. As a test case, we address Holocaust survivor testimonies, given in English. Other than the importance of studying these testimonies for Holocaust research, we argue that they provide an interesting test case for topical segmentation, due to their unstructured surface level, relative abundance (tens of thousands of such testimonies were collected), and the relatively confined domain that they cover. We hypothesize that boundary points between segments correspond to low mutual information between the sentences proceeding and following the boundary. Based on this hypothesis, we explore a range of algorithmic approaches to the task, building on previous work on segmentation that uses generative Bayesian modeling and state-of-the-art neural machinery. Compared to manually annotated references, we find that the developed approaches show considerable improvements over previous work.

We propose Multivariate Quantile Function Forecaster (MQF$^2$), a global probabilistic forecasting method constructed using a multivariate quantile function and investigate its application to multi-horizon forecasting. Prior approaches are either autoregressive, implicitly capturing the dependency structure across time but exhibiting error accumulation with increasing forecast horizons, or multi-horizon sequence-to-sequence models, which do not exhibit error accumulation, but also do typically not model the dependency structure across time steps. MQF$^2$ combines the benefits of both approaches, by directly making predictions in the form of a multivariate quantile function, defined as the gradient of a convex function which we parametrize using input-convex neural networks. By design, the quantile function is monotone with respect to the input quantile levels and hence avoids quantile crossing. We provide two options to train MQF$^2$: with energy score or with maximum likelihood. Experimental results on real-world and synthetic datasets show that our model has comparable performance with state-of-the-art methods in terms of single time step metrics while capturing the time dependency structure.

We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems commonly model the nonlinear effects of an unknown environment on a nominal system. We optimize over a class of nonlinear feedback policies inspired by certainty equivalent "estimate-and-cancel" control laws pioneered in classical adaptive control to achieve significant performance improvements in the presence of uncertainties of large magnitude, a setting in which existing learning-based predictive control algorithms often struggle to guarantee safety. In contrast to previous work in robust adaptive MPC, our approach allows us to take advantage of structure (i.e., the numerical predictions) in the a priori unknown dynamics learned online through function approximation. Our approach also extends typical nonlinear adaptive control methods to systems with state and input constraints even when we cannot directly cancel the additive uncertain function from the dynamics. We apply contemporary statistical estimation techniques to certify the system's safety through persistent constraint satisfaction with high probability. Moreover, we propose using Bayesian meta-learning algorithms that learn calibrated model priors to help satisfy the assumptions of the control design in challenging settings. Finally, we show in simulation that our method can accommodate more significant unknown dynamics terms than existing methods and that the use of Bayesian meta-learning allows us to adapt to the test environments more rapidly.