Identifying statistical regularities in solutions to some tasks in multi-task reinforcement learning can accelerate the learning of new tasks. Skill learning offers one way of identifying these regularities by decomposing pre-collected experiences into a sequence of skills. A popular approach to skill learning is maximizing the likelihood of the pre-collected experience with latent variable models, where the latent variables represent the skills. However, there are often many solutions that maximize the likelihood equally well, including degenerate solutions. To address this underspecification, we propose a new objective that combines the maximum likelihood objective with a penalty on the description length of the skills. This penalty incentivizes the skills to maximally extract common structures from the experiences. Empirically, our objective learns skills that solve downstream tasks in fewer samples compared to skills learned from only maximizing likelihood. Further, while most prior works in the offline multi-task setting focus on tasks with low-dimensional observations, our objective can scale to challenging tasks with high-dimensional image observations.

Controlling the generative model to adapt a new domain with limited samples is a difficult challenge and it is receiving increasing attention. Recently, methods based on meta-learning have shown promising results for few-shot domain adaptation. However, meta-learning-based methods usually suffer from the problem of overfitting, which results in a lack of diversity in the generated texts. To avoid this problem, in this study, a novel framework based on reinforcement learning (RL) is proposed. In this framework, to increase the sample utilization of RL and decrease its sample requirement, maximum likelihood estimation learning is incorporated into the RL process. When there are only a few in-domain samples available, experimental results on five target domains in two few-shot configurations show that this framework performs better than baselines.

Denoising diffusion probabilistic models are a promising new class of generative models that mark a milestone in high-quality image generation. This paper showcases their ability to sequentially generate video, surpassing prior methods in perceptual and probabilistic forecasting metrics. We propose an autoregressive, end-to-end optimized video diffusion model inspired by recent advances in neural video compression. The model successively generates future frames by correcting a deterministic next-frame prediction using a stochastic residual generated by an inverse diffusion process. We compare this approach against five baselines on four datasets involving natural and simulation-based videos. We find significant improvements in terms of perceptual quality for all datasets. Furthermore, by introducing a scalable version of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) applicable to video, we show that our model also outperforms existing approaches in their probabilistic frame forecasting ability.

Classifying forecasting methods as being either of a "machine learning" or "statistical" nature has become commonplace in parts of the forecasting literature and community, as exemplified by the M4 competition and the conclusion drawn by the organizers. We argue that this distinction does not stem from fundamental differences in the methods assigned to either class. Instead, this distinction is probably of a tribal nature, which limits the insights into the appropriateness and effectiveness of different forecasting methods. We provide alternative characteristics of forecasting methods which, in our view, allow to draw meaningful conclusions. Further, we discuss areas of forecasting which could benefit most from cross-pollination between the ML and the statistics communities.

Capturing uncertainty in models of complex dynamical systems is crucial to designing safe controllers. Stochastic noise causes aleatoric uncertainty, whereas imprecise knowledge of model parameters leads to epistemic uncertainty. Several approaches use formal abstractions to synthesize policies that satisfy temporal specifications related to safety and reachability. However, the underlying models exclusively capture aleatoric but not epistemic uncertainty, and thus require that model parameters are known precisely. Our contribution to overcoming this restriction is a novel abstraction-based controller synthesis method for continuous-state models with stochastic noise and uncertain parameters. By sampling techniques and robust analysis, we capture both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty, with a user-specified confidence level, in the transition probability intervals of a so-called interval Markov decision process (iMDP). We synthesize an optimal policy on this iMDP, which translates (with the specified confidence level) to a feedback controller for the continuous model with the same performance guarantees. Our experimental benchmarks confirm that accounting for epistemic uncertainty leads to controllers that are more robust against variations in parameter values.

In this paper, a hyperparameter tuning based Bayesian optimization of digital twins is carried out to diagnose various faults in grid connected inverters. As fault detection and diagnosis require very high precision, we channelize our efforts towards an online optimization of the digital twins, which, in turn, allows a flexible implementation with limited amount of data. As a result, the proposed framework not only becomes a practical solution for model versioning and deployment of digital twins design with limited data, but also allows integration of deep learning tools to improve the hyperparameter tuning capabilities. For classification performance assessment, we consider different fault cases in virtual synchronous generator (VSG) controlled grid-forming converters and demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. Our research outcomes reveal the increased accuracy and fidelity levels achieved by our digital twin design, overcoming the shortcomings of traditional hyperparameter tuning methods.

Time management under uncertainty is essential to large scale projects. From space exploration to industrial production, there is a need to schedule and perform activities. given complex specifications on timing. In order to generate schedules that are robust to uncertainty in the duration of activities, prior work has focused on a problem framing that uses an interval-bounded uncertainty representation. However, such approaches are unable to take advantage of known probability distributions over duration. In this paper we concentrate on a probabilistic formulation of temporal problems with uncertain duration, called the probabilistic simple temporal problem. As distributions often have an unbounded range of outcomes, we consider chance-constrained solutions, with guarantees on the probability of meeting temporal constraints. By considering distributions over uncertain duration, we are able to use risk as a resource, reason over the relative likelihood of outcomes, and derive higher utility solutions. We first demonstrate our approach by encoding the problem as a convex program. We then develop a more efficient hybrid algorithm whose parent solver generates risk allocations and whose child solver generates schedules for a particular risk allocation. The child is made efficient by leveraging existing interval-bounded scheduling algorithms, while the parent is made efficient by extracting conflicts over risk allocations. We perform numerical experiments to show the advantages of reasoning over probabilistic uncertainty, by comparing the utility of schedules generated with risk allocation against those generated from reasoning over bounded uncertainty. We also empirically show that solution time is greatly reduced by incorporating conflict-directed risk allocation.

From the perspective of machine learning and data science, probabilities and likelihoods are used to quantify uncertainty, or perhaps how probable it is that an observation belongs to one class or another. They crop up when looking at confusion matrices; and indeed, algorithms like Naive Bayes classification are pretty much probabilistic models. The reality is that data scientists cannot escape these concepts. In everyday language, though, we tend to use the terms probability and likelihood almost interchangeably. Indeed, it's not uncommon to hear things like'how likely is it to rain today?' or'what are the chances of this or that happening?'

One of the weaknesses of classical (fuzzy) rough sets is their sensitivity to noise, which is particularly undesirable for machine learning applications. One approach to solve this issue is by making use of fuzzy quantifiers, as done by the vaguely quantified fuzzy rough set (VQFRS) model. While this idea is intuitive, the VQFRS model suffers from both theoretical flaws as well as from suboptimal performance in applications. In this paper, we improve on VQFRS by introducing fuzzy quantifier-based fuzzy rough sets (FQFRS), an intuitive generalization of fuzzy rough sets that makes use of general unary and binary quantification models. We show how several existing models fit in this generalization as well as how it inspires novel ones. Several binary quantification models are proposed to be used with FQFRS. We conduct a theoretical study of their properties, and investigate their potential by applying them to classification problems. In particular, we highlight Yager's Weighted Implication-based (YWI) binary quantification model, which induces a fuzzy rough set model that is both a significant improvement on VQFRS, as well as a worthy competitor to the popular ordered weighted averaging based fuzzy rough set (OWAFRS) model.

Universal Approximation Theorems establish the density of various classes of neural network function approximators in $C(K, \mathbb{R}^m)$, where $K \subset \mathbb{R}^n$ is compact. In this paper, we aim to extend these guarantees by establishing conditions on learning tasks that guarantee their continuity. We consider learning tasks given by conditional expectations $x \mapsto \mathrm{E}\left[Y \mid X = x\right]$, where the learning target $Y = f \circ L$ is a potentially pathological transformation of some underlying data-generating process $L$. Under a factorization $L = T \circ W$ for the data-generating process where $T$ is thought of as a deterministic map acting on some random input $W$, we establish conditions (that might be easily verified using knowledge of $T$ alone) that guarantee the continuity of practically \textit{any} derived learning task $x \mapsto \mathrm{E}\left[f \circ L \mid X = x\right]$. We motivate the realism of our conditions using the example of randomized stable matching, thus providing a theoretical justification for the continuity of real-world learning tasks.