Uncertainty
Categorical Tools for Natural Language Processing
This thesis develops the translation between category theory and computational linguistics as a foundation for natural language processing. The three chapters deal with syntax, semantics and pragmatics. First, string diagrams provide a unified model of syntactic structures in formal grammars. Second, functors compute semantics by turning diagrams into logical, tensor, neural or quantum computation. Third, the resulting functorial models can be composed to form games where equilibria are the solutions of language processing tasks. This framework is implemented as part of DisCoPy, the Python library for computing with string diagrams. We describe the correspondence between categorical, linguistic and computational structures, and demonstrate their applications in compositional natural language processing.
VO$Q$L: Towards Optimal Regret in Model-free RL with Nonlinear Function Approximation
Agarwal, Alekh, Jin, Yujia, Zhang, Tong
We study time-inhomogeneous episodic reinforcement learning (RL) under general function approximation and sparse rewards. We design a new algorithm, Variance-weighted Optimistic $Q$-Learning (VO$Q$L), based on $Q$-learning and bound its regret assuming completeness and bounded Eluder dimension for the regression function class. As a special case, VO$Q$L achieves $\tilde{O}(d\sqrt{HT}+d^6H^{5})$ regret over $T$ episodes for a horizon $H$ MDP under ($d$-dimensional) linear function approximation, which is asymptotically optimal. Our algorithm incorporates weighted regression-based upper and lower bounds on the optimal value function to obtain this improved regret. The algorithm is computationally efficient given a regression oracle over the function class, making this the first computationally tractable and statistically optimal approach for linear MDPs.
Improving Self-Supervised Learning by Characterizing Idealized Representations
Dubois, Yann, Hashimoto, Tatsunori, Ermon, Stefano, Liang, Percy
Despite the empirical successes of self-supervised learning (SSL) methods, it is unclear what characteristics of their representations lead to high downstream accuracies. In this work, we characterize properties that SSL representations should ideally satisfy. Specifically, we prove necessary and sufficient conditions such that for any task invariant to given data augmentations, desired probes (e.g., linear or MLP) trained on that representation attain perfect accuracy. These requirements lead to a unifying conceptual framework for improving existing SSL methods and deriving new ones. For contrastive learning, our framework prescribes simple but significant improvements to previous methods such as using asymmetric projection heads. For non-contrastive learning, we use our framework to derive a simple and novel objective. Our resulting SSL algorithms outperform baselines on standard benchmarks, including SwAV+multicrops on linear probing of ImageNet.
Minimax Optimal Estimation of Stability Under Distribution Shift
Namkoong, Hongseok, Ma, Yuanzhe, Glynn, Peter W.
The performance of decision policies and prediction models often deteriorates when applied to environments different from the ones seen during training. To ensure reliable operation, we propose and analyze the stability of a system under distribution shift, which is defined as the smallest change in the underlying environment that causes the system's performance to deteriorate beyond a permissible threshold. In contrast to standard tail risk measures and distributionally robust losses that require the specification of a plausible magnitude of distribution shift, the stability measure is defined in terms of a more intuitive quantity: the level of acceptable performance degradation. We develop a minimax optimal estimator of stability and analyze its convergence rate, which exhibits a fundamental phase shift behavior. Our characterization of the minimax convergence rate shows that evaluating stability against large performance degradation incurs a statistical cost. Empirically, we demonstrate the practical utility of our stability framework by using it to compare system designs on problems where robustness to distribution shift is critical.
MAntRA: A framework for model agnostic reliability analysis
Mathpati, Yogesh Chandrakant, More, Kalpesh Sanjay, Tripura, Tapas, Nayek, Rajdip, Chakraborty, Souvik
We propose a novel model agnostic data-driven reliability analysis framework for time-dependent reliability analysis. The proposed approach -- referred to as MAntRA -- combines interpretable machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and identifying stochastic dynamic equation to evaluate reliability of stochastically-excited dynamical systems for which the governing physics is \textit{apriori} unknown. A two-stage approach is adopted: in the first stage, an efficient variational Bayesian equation discovery algorithm is developed to determine the governing physics of an underlying stochastic differential equation (SDE) from measured output data. The developed algorithm is efficient and accounts for epistemic uncertainty due to limited and noisy data, and aleatoric uncertainty because of environmental effect and external excitation. In the second stage, the discovered SDE is solved using a stochastic integration scheme and the probability failure is computed. The efficacy of the proposed approach is illustrated on three numerical examples. The results obtained indicate the possible application of the proposed approach for reliability analysis of in-situ and heritage structures from on-site measurements.
Graph algorithms for predicting subcellular localization at the pathway level
Magnano, Chris S., Gitter, Anthony
Protein subcellular localization is an important factor in normal cellular processes and disease. While many protein localization resources treat it as static, protein localization is dynamic and heavily influenced by biological context. Biological pathways are graphs that represent a specific biological context and can be inferred from large-scale data. We develop graph algorithms to predict the localization of all interactions in a biological pathway as an edge-labeling task. We compare a variety of models including graph neural networks, probabilistic graphical models, and discriminative classifiers for predicting localization annotations from curated pathway databases. We also perform a case study where we construct biological pathways and predict localizations of human fibroblasts undergoing viral infection. Pathway localization prediction is a promising approach for integrating publicly available localization data into the analysis of large-scale biological data.
Estimators of Entropy and Information via Inference in Probabilistic Models
Saad, Feras A., Cusumano-Towner, Marco, Mansinghka, Vikash K.
Estimating information-theoretic quantities such as entropy and mutual information is central to many problems in statistics and machine learning, but challenging in high dimensions. This paper presents estimators of entropy via inference (EEVI), which deliver upper and lower bounds on many information quantities for arbitrary variables in a probabilistic generative model. These estimators use importance sampling with proposal distribution families that include amortized variational inference and sequential Monte Carlo, which can be tailored to the target model and used to squeeze true information values with high accuracy. We present several theoretical properties of EEVI and demonstrate scalability and efficacy on two problems from the medical domain: (i) in an expert system for diagnosing liver disorders, we rank medical tests according to how informative they are about latent diseases, given a pattern of observed symptoms and patient attributes; and (ii) in a differential equation model of carbohydrate metabolism, we find optimal times to take blood glucose measurements that maximize information about a diabetic patient's insulin sensitivity, given their meal and medication schedule.
Quasi Black-Box Variational Inference with Natural Gradients for Bayesian Learning
Magris, Martin, Shabani, Mostafa, Iosifidis, Alexandros
We develop an optimization algorithm suitable for Bayesian learning in complex models. Our approach relies on natural gradient updates within a general black-box framework for efficient training with limited model-specific derivations. It applies within the class of exponential-family variational posterior distributions, for which we extensively discuss the Gaussian case for which the updates have a rather simple form. Our Quasi Black-box Variational Inference (QBVI) framework is readily applicable to a wide class of Bayesian inference problems and is of simple implementation as the updates of the variational posterior do not involve gradients with respect to the model parameters, nor the prescription of the Fisher information matrix. We develop QBVI under different hypotheses for the posterior covariance matrix, discuss details about its robust and feasible implementation, and provide a number of real-world applications to demonstrate its effectiveness.
Decentralized cooperative perception for autonomous vehicles: Learning to value the unknown
Chaveroche, Maxime, Davoine, Franck, Cherfaoui, Véronique
Recently, we have been witnesses of accidents involving autonomous vehicles and their lack of sufficient information. One way to tackle this issue is to benefit from the perception of different view points, namely cooperative perception. We propose here a decentralized collaboration, i.e. peer-to-peer, in which the agents are active in their quest for full perception by asking for specific areas in their surroundings on which they would like to know more. Ultimately, we want to optimize a trade-off between the maximization of knowledge about moving objects and the minimization of the total volume of information received from others, to limit communication costs and message processing time. For this, we propose a way to learn a communication policy that reverses the usual communication paradigm by only requesting from other vehicles what is unknown to the ego-vehicle, instead of filtering on the sender side. We tested three different generative models to be taken as base for a Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) algorithm, and compared them to a broadcasting policy and a policy randomly selecting areas. In particular, we propose Locally Predictable VAE (LP-VAE), which appears to be producing better belief states for predictions than state-of-the-art models, both as a standalone model and in the context of DRL. Experiments were conducted in the driving simulator CARLA. Our best models reached on average a gain of 25% of the total complementary information, while only requesting about 5% of the ego-vehicle's perceptual field. This trade-off is adjustable through the interpretable hyperparameters of our reward function.
Negative Shannon Information Hides Networks
Shannon information was defined for characterizing the uncertainty information of classical probabilistic distributions. As an uncertainty measure it is generally believed to be positive. This holds for any information quantity from two random variables because of the polymatroidal axioms. However, it is unknown why there is negative information for more than two random variables on finite dimensional spaces. We first show the negative tripartite Shannon mutual information implies specific Bayesian network representations of its joint distribution. We then show that the negative Shannon information is obtained from general tripartite Bayesian networks with quantum realizations. This provides a device-independent witness of negative Shannon information. We finally extend the result for general networks. The present result shows new insights in the network compatibility from non-Shannon information inequalities.