Taking advice from others requires confidence in their competence. This is important for interaction with peers, but also for collaboration with social robots and artificial agents. Nonetheless, we do not always have access to information about others' competence or performance. In these uncertain environments, do our prior beliefs about the nature and the competence of our interacting partners modulate our willingness to rely on their judgments? In a joint perceptual decision making task, participants made perceptual judgments and observed the simulated estimates of either a human participant, a social humanoid robot or a computer. Then they could modify their estimates based on this feedback. Results show participants' belief about the nature of their partner biased their compliance with its judgments: participants were more influenced by the social robot than human and computer partners. This difference emerged strongly at the very beginning of the task and decreased with repeated exposure to empirical feedback on the partner's responses, disclosing the role of prior beliefs in social influence under uncertainty. Furthermore, the results of our functional task suggest an important difference between human-human and human-robot interaction in the absence of overt socially relevant signal from the partner: the former is modulated by social normative mechanisms, whereas the latter is guided by purely informational mechanisms linked to the perceived competence of the partner.

Generative networks are opening new avenues in fast event generation for the LHC. We show how generative flow networks can reach percent-level precision for kinematic distributions, how they can be trained jointly with a discriminator, and how this discriminator improves the generation. Our joint training relies on a novel coupling of the two networks which does not require a Nash equilibrium. We then estimate the generation uncertainties through a Bayesian network setup and through conditional data augmentation, while the discriminator ensures that there are no systematic inconsistencies compared to the training data.

With advanced imaging, sequencing, and profiling technologies, multiple omics data become increasingly available and hold promises for many healthcare applications such as cancer diagnosis and treatment. Multimodal learning for integrative multi-omics analysis can help researchers and practitioners gain deep insights into human diseases and improve clinical decisions. However, several challenges are hindering the development in this area, including the availability of easily accessible open-source tools. This survey aims to provide an up-to-date overview of the data challenges, fusion approaches, datasets, and software tools from several new perspectives. We identify and investigate various omics data challenges that can help us understand the field better. We categorize fusion approaches comprehensively to cover existing methods in this area. We collect existing open-source tools to facilitate their broader utilization and development. We explore a broad range of omics data modalities and a list of accessible datasets. Finally, we summarize future directions that can potentially address existing gaps and answer the pressing need to advance multimodal learning for multi-omics data analysis.

Model counting is a fundamental problem which has been influential in many applications, from artificial intelligence to formal verification. Due to the intrinsic hardness of model counting, approximate techniques have been developed to solve real-world instances of model counting. This paper designs a new anytime approach called PartialKC for approximate model counting. The idea is a form of partial knowledge compilation to provide an unbiased estimate of the model count which can converge to the exact count. Our empirical analysis demonstrates that PartialKC achieves significant scalability and accuracy over prior state-of-the-art approximate counters, including satss and STS. Interestingly, the empirical results show that PartialKC reaches convergence for many instances and therefore provides exact model counting performance comparable to state-of-the-art exact counters.

This paper concerns with statistical estimation and inference for the ranking problems based on pairwise comparisons with additional covariate information such as the attributes of the compared items. Despite extensive studies, few prior literatures investigate this problem under the more realistic setting where covariate information exists. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel model, Covariate-Assisted Ranking Estimation (CARE) model, that extends the well-known Bradley-Terry-Luce (BTL) model, by incorporating the covariate information. Specifically, instead of assuming every compared item has a fixed latent score $\{\theta_i^*\}_{i=1}^n$, we assume the underlying scores are given by $\{\alpha_i^*+{x}_i^\top\beta^*\}_{i=1}^n$, where $\alpha_i^*$ and ${x}_i^\top\beta^*$ represent latent baseline and covariate score of the $i$-th item, respectively. We impose natural identifiability conditions and derive the $\ell_{\infty}$- and $\ell_2$-optimal rates for the maximum likelihood estimator of $\{\alpha_i^*\}_{i=1}^{n}$ and $\beta^*$ under a sparse comparison graph, using a novel `leave-one-out' technique (Chen et al., 2019) . To conduct statistical inferences, we further derive asymptotic distributions for the MLE of $\{\alpha_i^*\}_{i=1}^n$ and $\beta^*$ with minimal sample complexity. This allows us to answer the question whether some covariates have any explanation power for latent scores and to threshold some sparse parameters to improve the ranking performance. We improve the approximation method used in (Gao et al., 2021) for the BLT model and generalize it to the CARE model. Moreover, we validate our theoretical results through large-scale numerical studies and an application to the mutual fund stock holding dataset.

We consider the problem of dynamic pricing of a product in the presence of feature-dependent price sensitivity. Developing practical algorithms that can estimate price elasticities robustly, especially when information about no purchases (losses) is not available, to drive such automated pricing systems is a challenge faced by many industries. Based on the Poisson semi-parametric approach, we construct a flexible yet interpretable demand model where the price related part is parametric while the remaining (nuisance) part of the model is non-parametric and can be modeled via sophisticated machine learning (ML) techniques. The estimation of price-sensitivity parameters of this model via direct one-stage regression techniques may lead to biased estimates due to regularization. To address this concern, we propose a two-stage estimation methodology which makes the estimation of the price-sensitivity parameters robust to biases in the estimators of the nuisance parameters of the model. In the first-stage we construct estimators of observed purchases and prices given the feature vector using sophisticated ML estimators such as deep neural networks. Utilizing the estimators from the first-stage, in the second-stage we leverage a Bayesian dynamic generalized linear model to estimate the price-sensitivity parameters. We test the performance of the proposed estimation schemes on simulated and real sales transaction data from the Airline industry. Our numerical studies demonstrate that our proposed two-stage approach reduces the estimation error in price-sensitivity parameters from 25\% to 4\% in realistic simulation settings. The two-stage estimation techniques proposed in this work allows practitioners to leverage modern ML techniques to robustly estimate price-sensitivities while still maintaining interpretability and allowing ease of validation of its various constituent parts.

In this review, we discuss approaches for learning causal structure from data, also called causal discovery. In particular, we focus on approaches for learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) and various generalizations which allow for some variables to be unobserved in the available data. We devote special attention to two fundamental combinatorial aspects of causal structure learning. First, we discuss the structure of the search space over causal graphs. Second, we discuss the structure of equivalence classes over causal graphs, i.e., sets of graphs which represent what can be learned from observational data alone, and how these equivalence classes can be refined by adding interventional data.

A framework for creating and updating digital twins for dynamical systems from a library of physics-based functions is proposed. The sparse Bayesian machine learning is used to update and derive an interpretable expression for the digital twin. Two approaches for updating the digital twin are proposed. The first approach makes use of both the input and output information from a dynamical system, whereas the second approach utilizes output-only observations to update the digital twin. Both methods use a library of candidate functions representing certain physics to infer new perturbation terms in the existing digital twin model. In both cases, the resulting expressions of updated digital twins are identical, and in addition, the epistemic uncertainties are quantified. In the first approach, the regression problem is derived from a state-space model, whereas in the latter case, the output-only information is treated as a stochastic process. The concepts of It\^o calculus and Kramers-Moyal expansion are being utilized to derive the regression equation. The performance of the proposed approaches is demonstrated using highly nonlinear dynamical systems such as the crack-degradation problem. Numerical results demonstrated in this paper almost exactly identify the correct perturbation terms along with their associated parameters in the dynamical system. The probabilistic nature of the proposed approach also helps in quantifying the uncertainties associated with updated models. The proposed approaches provide an exact and explainable description of the perturbations in digital twin models, which can be directly used for better cyber-physical integration, long-term future predictions, degradation monitoring, and model-agnostic control.

Variance parameter estimation in linear mixed models is a challenge for many classical nonlinear optimization algorithms due to the positive-definiteness constraint of the random effects covariance matrix. We take a completely novel view on parameter estimation in linear mixed models by exploiting the intrinsic geometry of the parameter space. We formulate the problem of residual maximum likelihood estimation as an optimization problem on a Riemannian manifold. Based on the introduced formulation, we give geometric higher-order information on the problem via the Riemannian gradient and the Riemannian Hessian. Based on that, we test our approach with Riemannian optimization algorithms numerically. Our approach yields a higher quality of the variance parameter estimates compared to existing approaches.

Variational inference (VI) is a specific type of approximate Bayesian inference that approximates an intractable posterior distribution with a tractable one. VI casts the inference problem as an optimization problem, more specifically, the goal is to maximize a lower bound of the logarithm of the marginal likelihood with respect to the parameters of the approximate posterior. Reinforcement learning (RL) on the other hand deals with autonomous agents and how to make them act optimally such as to maximize some notion of expected future cumulative reward. In the non-sequential setting where agents' actions do not have an impact on future states of the environment, RL is covered by contextual bandits and Bayesian optimization. In a proper sequential scenario, however, where agents' actions affect future states, instantaneous rewards need to be carefully traded off against potential long-term rewards. This manuscript shows how the apparently different subjects of VI and RL are linked in two fundamental ways. First, the optimization objective of RL to maximize future cumulative rewards can be recovered via a VI objective under a soft policy constraint in both the non-sequential and the sequential setting. This policy constraint is not just merely artificial but has proven as a useful regularizer in many RL tasks yielding significant improvements in agent performance. And second, in model-based RL where agents aim to learn about the environment they are operating in, the model-learning part can be naturally phrased as an inference problem over the process that governs environment dynamics. We are going to distinguish between two scenarios for the latter: VI when environment states are fully observable by the agent and VI when they are only partially observable through an observation distribution.