Fuzzy logic has been proposed in previous studies for machine diagnosis, to overcome different drawbacks of the traditional diagnostic approaches used. Among these approaches Failure Mode and Effect Critical Analysis method(FMECA) attempts to identify potential modes and treat failures before they occur based on subjective expert judgments. Although several versions of fuzzy logic are used to improve FMECA or to replace it, since it is an extremely cost-intensive approach in terms of failure modes because it evaluates each one of them separately, these propositions have not explicitly focused on the combinatorial complexity nor justified the choice of membership functions in Fuzzy logic modeling. Within this context, we develop an optimization-based approach referred to Integrated Truth Table and Fuzzy Logic Model (ITTFLM) that smartly generates fuzzy logic rules using Truth Tables. The ITTFLM was tested on fan data collected in real-time from a plant machine. In the experiment, three types of membership functions (Triangular, Trapezoidal, and Gaussian) were used. The ITTFLM can generate outputs in 5ms, the results demonstrate that this model based on the Trapezoidal membership functions identifies the failure states with high accuracy, and its capability of dealing with large numbers of rules and thus meets the real-time constraints that usually impact user experience.

Among various soft computing approaches for time series forecasting, fuzzy cognitive maps (FCMs) have shown remarkable results as a tool to model and analyze the dynamics of complex systems. FCMs have similarities to recurrent neural networks and can be classified as a neuro-fuzzy method. In other words, FCMs are a mixture of fuzzy logic, neural network, and expert system aspects, which act as a powerful tool for simulating and studying the dynamic behavior of complex systems. The most interesting features are knowledge interpretability, dynamic characteristics and learning capability. The goal of this survey paper is mainly to present an overview on the most relevant and recent FCM-based time series forecasting models proposed in the literature.

Over the years, sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and, equivalently, particle filter (PF) theory has gained substantial attention from researchers. However, the performance of the resampling methodology, also known as offspring selection, has not advanced recently. We propose two deterministic offspring selection methods, which strive to minimize the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and the total variation (TV) distance, respectively, between the particle distribution prior and subsequent to the offspring selection. By reducing the statistical distance between the selected offspring and the joint distribution, we obtain a heuristic search procedure that performs superior to a maximum likelihood search in precisely those contexts where the latter performs better than an SMC. For SMC and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (pMCMC), our proposed offspring selection methods always outperform or compare favorably with the two state-of-the-art resampling schemes on two models commonly used as benchmarks from the literature.

This invited review discusses causal learning in the context of robotic intelligence. The paper introduced the psychological findings on causal learning in human cognition, then it introduced the traditional statistical solutions on causal discovery and causal inference. The paper reviewed recent deep causal learning algorithms with a focus on their architectures and the benefits of using deep nets and discussed the gap between deep causal learning and the needs of robotic intelligence.

Conversational recommender systems (CRSs) often utilize external knowledge graphs (KGs) to introduce rich semantic information and recommend relevant items through natural language dialogues. However, original KGs employed in existing CRSs are often incomplete and sparse, which limits the reasoning capability in recommendation. Moreover, only few of existing studies exploit the dialogue context to dynamically refine knowledge from KGs for better recommendation. To address the above issues, we propose the Variational Reasoning over Incomplete KGs Conversational Recommender (VRICR). Our key idea is to incorporate the large dialogue corpus naturally accompanied with CRSs to enhance the incomplete KGs; and perform dynamic knowledge reasoning conditioned on the dialogue context. Specifically, we denote the dialogue-specific subgraphs of KGs as latent variables with categorical priors for adaptive knowledge graphs refactor. We propose a variational Bayesian method to approximate posterior distributions over dialogue-specific subgraphs, which not only leverages the dialogue corpus for restructuring missing entity relations but also dynamically selects knowledge based on the dialogue context. Finally, we infuse the dialogue-specific subgraphs to decode the recommendation and responses. We conduct experiments on two benchmark CRSs datasets. Experimental results confirm the effectiveness of our proposed method.

Dataset scaling, also known as normalization, is an essential preprocessing step in a machine learning pipeline. It is aimed at adjusting attributes scales in a way that they all vary within the same range. This transformation is known to improve the performance of classification models, but there are several scaling techniques to choose from, and this choice is not generally done carefully. In this paper, we execute a broad experiment comparing the impact of 5 scaling techniques on the performances of 20 classification algorithms among monolithic and ensemble models, applying them to 82 publicly available datasets with varying imbalance ratios. Results show that the choice of scaling technique matters for classification performance, and the performance difference between the best and the worst scaling technique is relevant and statistically significant in most cases. They also indicate that choosing an inadequate technique can be more detrimental to classification performance than not scaling the data at all. We also show how the performance variation of an ensemble model, considering different scaling techniques, tends to be dictated by that of its base model. Finally, we discuss the relationship between a model's sensitivity to the choice of scaling technique and its performance and provide insights into its applicability on different model deployment scenarios. Full results and source code for the experiments in this paper are available in a GitHub repository.\footnote{https://github.com/amorimlb/scaling\_matters}

A classy diffusion model dancing in a ballroom こんにちは！AMBL株式会社　R＆D部のエイドリアンです。 こちらの記事はADVENT CALENDARの記事です。 今回は最近話題にな...

Metanomic, a game economics and player analytics company, announced in September the launch of its player analytics platform Thunderstruck, using AI based on Bayesian inference and aiming to revolutionize game developers' use of behavioral data to improve retention and monetization. Metanomic is a software company founded in November 2021 by Theo Priestley, Bronwyn Williams and Evan Pappas. A comprehensive real-time economy-as-a-service platform for developers, it uses patented algorithms to easily deploy plug-and-play, interoperable and scalable game and creator economies ready for web3, metavers and play-and-earn games. The company has secured $2.9 million in pre-seed funding. On May 18, it announced the acquisition of Intoolab AI, a company specializing in Bayesian network-based artificial intelligence, to develop and improve data analysis in video games and on the Web3.

Conditional independence (CI) tests underlie many approaches to model testing and structure learning in causal inference. Most existing CI tests for categorical and ordinal data stratify the sample by the conditioning variables, perform simple independence tests in each stratum, and combine the results. Unfortunately, the statistical power of this approach degrades rapidly as the number of conditioning variables increases. Here we propose a simple unified CI test for ordinal and categorical data that maintains reasonable calibration and power in high dimensions. We show that our test outperforms existing baselines in model testing and structure learning for dense directed graphical models while being comparable for sparse models. Our approach could be attractive for causal model testing because it is easy to implement, can be used with non-parametric or parametric probability models, has the symmetry property, and has reasonable computational requirements.

We consider the problem of recovering the causal structure underlying observations from different experimental conditions when the targets of the interventions in each experiment are unknown. We assume a linear structural causal model with additive Gaussian noise and consider interventions that perturb their targets while maintaining the causal relationships in the system. Different models may entail the same distributions, offering competing causal explanations for the given observations. We fully characterize this equivalence class and offer identifiability results, which we use to derive a greedy algorithm called GnIES to recover the equivalence class of the data-generating model without knowledge of the intervention targets. In addition, we develop a novel procedure to generate semi-synthetic data sets with known causal ground truth but distributions closely resembling those of a real data set of choice. We leverage this procedure and evaluate the performance of GnIES on synthetic, real, and semi-synthetic data sets. Despite the strong Gaussian distributional assumption, GnIES is robust to an array of model violations and competitive in recovering the causal structure in small- to large-sample settings. We provide, in the Python packages "gnies" and "sempler", implementations of GnIES and our semi-synthetic data generation procedure.