In this paper, we propose a robust data-driven process model whose hyperparameters are robustly estimated using the Schweppe-type generalized maximum likelihood estimator. The proposed model is trained on recorded time-series data of voltage phasors and power injections to perform a time-series stochastic power flow calculation. Power system data are often corrupted with outliers caused by large errors, fault conditions, power outages, and extreme weather, to name a few. The proposed model downweights vertical outliers and bad leverage points in the measurements of the training dataset. The weights used to bound the influence of the outliers are calculated using projection statistics, which are a robust version of Mahalanobis distances of the time series data points. The proposed method is demonstrated on the IEEE 33-Bus power distribution system and a real-world unbalanced 240-bus power distribution system heavily integrated with renewable energy sources. Our simulation results show that the proposed robust model can handle up to 25% of outliers in the training data set.

Identifying functional connectivity biomarkers of major depressive disorder (MDD) patients is essential to advance understanding of the disorder mechanisms and early intervention. However, due to the small sample size and the high dimension of available neuroimaging data, the performance of existing methods is often limited. Multi-site data could enhance the statistical power and sample size, while they are often subject to inter-site heterogeneity and data-sharing policies. In this paper, we propose a federated joint estimator, NOTEARS-PFL, for simultaneous learning of multiple Bayesian networks (BNs) with continuous optimization, to identify disease-induced alterations in MDD patients. We incorporate information shared between sites and site-specific information into the proposed federated learning framework to learn personalized BN structures by introducing the group fused lasso penalty. We develop the alternating direction method of multipliers, where in the local update step, the neuroimaging data is processed at each local site. Then the learned network structures are transmitted to the center for the global update. In particular, we derive a closed-form expression for the local update step and use the iterative proximal projection method to deal with the group fused lasso penalty in the global update step. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method on both synthetic and real-world multi-site rs-fMRI datasets. The results suggest that the proposed NOTEARS-PFL yields superior effectiveness and accuracy than the comparable methods.

In this paper we focus on the evaluation of contextual autonomy for robots. More specifically, we propose a fuzzy framework for calculating the autonomy score for a small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) for performing a task while considering task complexity and environmental factors. Our framework is a cascaded Fuzzy Inference System (cFIS) composed of combination of three FIS which represent different contextual autonomy capabilities. We performed several experiments to test our framework in various contexts, such as endurance time, navigation, take off/land, and room clearing, with seven different sUAS. We introduce a predictive measure which improves upon previous predictive measures, allowing for previous real-world task performance to be used in predicting future mission performance.

We study the constrained reinforcement learning problem, in which an agent aims to maximize the expected cumulative reward subject to a constraint on the expected total value of a utility function. In contrast to existing model-based approaches or model-free methods accompanied with a `simulator', we aim to develop the first model-free, simulator-free algorithm that achieves a sublinear regret and a sublinear constraint violation even in large-scale systems. To this end, we consider the episodic constrained Markov decision processes with linear function approximation, where the transition dynamics and the reward function can be represented as a linear function of some known feature mapping. We show that $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d^3H^3T})$ regret and $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(\sqrt{d^3H^3T})$ constraint violation bounds can be achieved, where $d$ is the dimension of the feature mapping, $H$ is the length of the episode, and $T$ is the total number of steps. Our bounds are attained without explicitly estimating the unknown transition model or requiring a simulator, and they depend on the state space only through the dimension of the feature mapping. Hence our bounds hold even when the number of states goes to infinity. Our main results are achieved via novel adaptations of the standard LSVI-UCB algorithms. In particular, we first introduce primal-dual optimization into the LSVI-UCB algorithm to balance between regret and constraint violation. More importantly, we replace the standard greedy selection with respect to the state-action function in LSVI-UCB with a soft-max policy. This turns out to be key in establishing uniform concentration for the constrained case via its approximation-smoothness trade-off. We also show that one can achieve an even zero constraint violation while still maintaining the same order with respect to $T$.

This article belongs to the series "Probabilistic Deep Learning". This weekly series covers probabilistic approaches to deep learning. The main goal is to extend deep learning models to quantify uncertainty, i.e. know what they do not know. The frequentist approach to statistics is based on the idea of repeated sampling and long-run relative frequency. It involves constructing hypotheses about a population and testing them using sample data.

This paper considers ranking inference of $n$ items based on the observed data on the top choice among $M$ randomly selected items at each trial. This is a useful modification of the Plackett-Luce model for $M$-way ranking with only the top choice observed and is an extension of the celebrated Bradley-Terry-Luce model that corresponds to $M=2$. Under a uniform sampling scheme in which any $M$ distinguished items are selected for comparisons with probability $p$ and the selected $M$ items are compared $L$ times with multinomial outcomes, we establish the statistical rates of convergence for underlying $n$ preference scores using both $\ell_2$-norm and $\ell_\infty$-norm, with the minimum sampling complexity. In addition, we establish the asymptotic normality of the maximum likelihood estimator that allows us to construct confidence intervals for the underlying scores. Furthermore, we propose a novel inference framework for ranking items through a sophisticated maximum pairwise difference statistic whose distribution is estimated via a valid Gaussian multiplier bootstrap. The estimated distribution is then used to construct simultaneous confidence intervals for the differences in the preference scores and the ranks of individual items. They also enable us to address various inference questions on the ranks of these items. Extensive simulation studies lend further support to our theoretical results. A real data application illustrates the usefulness of the proposed methods convincingly.

Combinatorics math problems are often used as a benchmark to test human cognitive and logical problem-solving skills. These problems are concerned with counting the number of solutions that exist in a specific scenario that is sketched in natural language. Humans are adept at solving such problems as they can identify commonly occurring structures in the questions for which a closed-form formula exists for computing the answer. These formulas exploit the exchangeability of objects and symmetries to avoid a brute-force enumeration of all possible solutions. Unfortunately, current AI approaches are still unable to solve combinatorial problems in this way. This paper aims to fill this gap by developing novel AI techniques for representing and solving such problems. It makes the following five contributions. First, we identify a class of combinatorics math problems which traditional lifted counting techniques fail to model or solve efficiently. Second, we propose a novel declarative language for this class of problems. Third, we propose novel lifted solving algorithms bridging probabilistic inference techniques and constraint programming. Fourth, we implement them in a lifted solver that solves efficiently the class of problems under investigation. Finally, we evaluate our contributions on a real-world combinatorics math problems dataset and synthetic benchmarks.

We develop an approach for fully Bayesian learning and calibration for spatiotemporal dynamical mechanistic models based on noisy observations. Calibration is achieved by melding information from observed data with simulated computer experiments from the mechanistic system. The joint melding makes use of both Gaussian and non-Gaussian state-space methods as well as Gaussian process regression. Assuming the dynamical system is controlled by a finite collection of inputs, Gaussian process regression learns the effect of these parameters through a number of training runs, driving the stochastic innovations of the spatiotemporal state-space component. This enables efficient modeling of the dynamics over space and time. Through reduced-rank Gaussian processes and a conjugate model specification, our methodology is applicable to large-scale calibration and inverse problems. Our method is general, extensible, and capable of learning a wide range of dynamical systems with potential model misspecification. We demonstrate this flexibility through solving inverse problems arising in the analysis of ordinary and partial nonlinear differential equations and, in addition, to a black-box computer model generating spatiotemporal dynamics across a network.

Controllers for dynamical systems that operate in safety-critical settings must account for stochastic disturbances. Such disturbances are often modeled as process noise in a dynamical system, and common assumptions are that the underlying distributions are known and/or Gaussian. In practice, however, these assumptions may be unrealistic and can lead to poor approximations of the true noise distribution. We present a novel controller synthesis method that does not rely on any explicit representation of the noise distributions. In particular, we address the problem of computing a controller that provides probabilistic guarantees on safely reaching a target, while also avoiding unsafe regions of the state space. First, we abstract the continuous control system into a finite-state model that captures noise by probabilistic transitions between discrete states. As a key contribution, we adapt tools from the scenario approach to compute probably approximately correct (PAC) bounds on these transition probabilities, based on a finite number of samples of the noise. We capture these bounds in the transition probability intervals of a so-called interval Markov decision process (iMDP). This iMDP is, with a user-specified confidence probability, robust against uncertainty in the transition probabilities, and the tightness of the probability intervals can be controlled through the number of samples. We use state-of-the-art verification techniques to provide guarantees on the iMDP and compute a controller for which these guarantees carry over to the original control system. In addition, we develop a tailored computational scheme that reduces the complexity of the synthesis of these guarantees on the iMDP. Benchmarks on realistic control systems show the practical applicability of our method, even when the iMDP has hundreds of millions of transitions.

Riemannian manifold Hamiltonian (RMHMC) and Lagrangian Monte Carlo (LMC) have emerged as powerful methods of Bayesian inference. Unlike Euclidean Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (EHMC) and the Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MALA), the geometric ergodicity of these Riemannian algorithms has not been extensively studied. On the other hand, the manifold Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm (MMALA) has recently been shown to exhibit geometric ergodicity under certain conditions. This work investigates the mixture of the LMC and RMHMC transition kernels with MMALA in order to equip the resulting method with an "inherited" geometric ergodicity theory. We motivate this mixture kernel based on an analogy between single-step HMC and MALA. We then proceed to evaluate the original and modified transition kernels on several benchmark Bayesian inference tasks.