Creating autonomous robots that can actively explore the environment, acquire knowledge and learn skills continuously is the ultimate achievement envisioned in cognitive and developmental robotics. Their learning processes should be based on interactions with their physical and social world in the manner of human learning and cognitive development. Based on this context, in this paper, we focus on the two concepts of world models and predictive coding. Recently, world models have attracted renewed attention as a topic of considerable interest in artificial intelligence. Cognitive systems learn world models to better predict future sensory observations and optimize their policies, i.e., controllers. Alternatively, in neuroscience, predictive coding proposes that the brain continuously predicts its inputs and adapts to model its own dynamics and control behavior in its environment. Both ideas may be considered as underpinning the cognitive development of robots and humans capable of continual or lifelong learning. Although many studies have been conducted on predictive coding in cognitive robotics and neurorobotics, the relationship between world model-based approaches in AI and predictive coding in robotics has rarely been discussed. Therefore, in this paper, we clarify the definitions, relationships, and status of current research on these topics, as well as missing pieces of world models and predictive coding in conjunction with crucially related concepts such as the free-energy principle and active inference in the context of cognitive and developmental robotics. Furthermore, we outline the frontiers and challenges involved in world models and predictive coding toward the further integration of AI and robotics, as well as the creation of robots with real cognitive and developmental capabilities in the future.

In many scientific research and engineering applications where repeated simulations of complex systems are conducted, a surrogate is commonly adopted to quickly estimate the whole system. To reduce the expensive cost of generating training examples, it has become a promising approach to combine the results of low-fidelity (fast but inaccurate) and high-fidelity (slow but accurate) simulations. Despite the fast developments of multi-fidelity fusion techniques, most existing methods require particular data structures and do not scale well to high-dimensional output. To resolve these issues, we generalize the classic autoregression (AR), which is wildly used due to its simplicity, robustness, accuracy, and tractability, and propose generalized autoregression (GAR) using tensor formulation and latent features. GAR can deal with arbitrary dimensional outputs and arbitrary multifidelity data structure to satisfy the demand of multi-fidelity fusion for complex problems; it admits a fully tractable likelihood and posterior requiring no approximate inference and scales well to high-dimensional problems. Furthermore, we prove the autokrigeability theorem based on GAR in the multi-fidelity case and develop CIGAR, a simplified GAR with the exact predictive mean accuracy with computation reduction by a factor of d 3, where d is the dimensionality of the output. The empirical assessment includes many canonical PDEs and real scientific examples and demonstrates that the proposed method consistently outperforms the SOTA methods with a large margin (up to 6x improvement in RMSE) with only a couple high-fidelity training samples.

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a versatile tool widely used in uncertainty quantification and machine learning, but its successful application depends strongly on the accuracy and reliability of the resulting PCE-based response surface. High accuracy typically requires high polynomial degrees, demanding many training points especially in high-dimensional problems through the curse of dimensionality. So-called sparse PCE concepts work with a much smaller selection of basis polynomials compared to conventional PCE approaches and can overcome the curse of dimensionality very efficiently, but have to pay specific attention to their strategies of choosing training points. Furthermore, the approximation error resembles an uncertainty that most existing PCE-based methods do not estimate. In this study, we develop and evaluate a fully Bayesian approach to establish the PCE representation via joint shrinkage priors and Markov chain Monte Carlo. The suggested Bayesian PCE model directly aims to solve the two challenges named above: achieving a sparse PCE representation and estimating uncertainty of the PCE itself. The embedded Bayesian regularizing via the joint shrinkage prior allows using higher polynomial degrees for given training points due to its ability to handle underdetermined situations, where the number of considered PCE coefficients could be much larger than the number of available training points. We also explore multiple variable selection methods to construct sparse PCE expansions based on the established Bayesian representations, while globally selecting the most meaningful orthonormal polynomials given the available training data. We demonstrate the advantages of our Bayesian PCE and the corresponding sparsity-inducing methods on several benchmarks.

Recently, fitting probabilistic models have gained importance in many areas but estimation of such distributional models with very large data sets is a difficult task. In particular, the use of rather complex models can easily lead to memory-related efficiency problems that can make estimation infeasible even on high-performance computers. We therefore propose a novel backfitting algorithm, which is based on the ideas of stochastic gradient descent and can deal virtually with any amount of data on a conventional laptop. The algorithm performs automatic selection of variables and smoothing parameters, and its performance is in most cases superior or at least equivalent to other implementations for structured additive distributional regression, e.g., gradient boosting, while maintaining low computation time. Performance is evaluated using an extensive simulation study and an exceptionally challenging and unique example of lightning count prediction over Austria. A very large dataset with over 9 million observations and 80 covariates is used, so that a prediction model cannot be estimated with standard distributional regression methods but with our new approach.

An important feature of pervasive, intelligent assistance systems is the ability to dynamically adapt to the current needs of their users. Hence, it is critical for such systems to be able to recognize those goals and needs based on observations of the user's actions and state of the environment. In this work, we investigate the application of two state-of-the-art, planning-based plan recognition approaches in a real-world setting. So far, these approaches were only evaluated in artificial settings in combination with agents that act perfectly rational. We show that such approaches have difficulties when used to recognize the goals of human subjects, because human behaviour is typically not perfectly rational. To overcome this issue, we propose an extension to the existing approaches through a classification-based method trained on observed behaviour data. We empirically show that the proposed extension not only outperforms the purely planning-based- and purely data-driven goal recognition methods but is also able to recognize the correct goal more reliably, especially when only a small number of observations were seen. This substantially improves the usefulness of hybrid goal recognition approaches for intelligent assistance systems, as recognizing a goal early opens much more possibilities for supportive reactions of the system.

Most state-of-the-art machine learning techniques revolve around the optimisation of loss functions. Defining appropriate loss functions is therefore critical to successfully solving problems in this field. We present a survey of the most commonly used loss functions for a wide range of different applications, divided into classification, regression, ranking, sample generation and energy based modelling. Overall, we introduce 33 different loss functions and we organise them into an intuitive taxonomy. Each loss function is given a theoretical backing and we describe where it is best used. This survey aims to provide a reference of the most essential loss functions for both beginner and advanced machine learning practitioners.

Accurate estimation of output quantiles is crucial in many use cases, where it is desired to model the range of possibility. Modeling target distribution at arbitrary quantile levels and at arbitrary input attribute levels are important to offer a comprehensive picture of the data, and requires the quantile function to be expressive enough. The quantile function describing the target distribution using quantile levels is critical for quantile regression. Although various parametric forms for the distributions (that the quantile function specifies) can be adopted, an everlasting problem is selecting the most appropriate one that can properly approximate the data distributions. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric and data-driven approach, Neural Spline Search (NSS), to represent the observed data distribution without parametric assumptions. NSS is flexible and expressive for modeling data distributions by transforming the inputs with a series of monotonic spline regressions guided by symbolic operators. We demonstrate that NSS outperforms previous methods on synthetic, real-world regression and time-series forecasting tasks.

In this work, we study how to build socially intelligent robots to assist people in their homes. In particular, we focus on assistance with online goal inference, where robots must simultaneously infer humans' goals and how to help them achieve those goals. Prior assistance methods either lack the adaptivity to adjust helping strategies (i.e., when and how to help) in response to uncertainty about goals or the scalability to conduct fast inference in a large goal space. Our NOPA (Neurally-guided Online Probabilistic Assistance) method addresses both of these challenges. NOPA consists of (1) an online goal inference module combining neural goal proposals with inverse planning and particle filtering for robust inference under uncertainty, and (2) a helping planner that discovers valuable subgoals to help with and is aware of the uncertainty in goal inference. We compare NOPA against multiple baselines in a new embodied AI assistance challenge: Online Watch-And-Help, in which a helper agent needs to simultaneously watch a main agent's action, infer its goal, and help perform a common household task faster in realistic virtual home environments. Experiments show that our helper agent robustly updates its goal inference and adapts its helping plans to the changing level of uncertainty.

This work proposes a method for using any generator network as the foundation of an Energy-Based Model (EBM). Our formulation posits that observed images are the sum of unobserved latent variables passed through the generator network and a residual random variable that spans the gap between the generator output and the image manifold. One can then define an EBM that includes the generator as part of its forward pass, which we call the Hat EBM. The model can be trained without inferring the latent variables of the observed data or calculating the generator Jacobian determinant. This enables explicit probabilistic modeling of the output distribution of any type of generator network. Experiments show strong performance of the proposed method on (1) unconditional ImageNet synthesis at 128x128 resolution, (2) refining the output of existing generators, and (3) learning EBMs that incorporate non-probabilistic generators. Code and pretrained models to reproduce our results are available at https://github.com/point0bar1/hat-ebm.

A Bayesian coreset is a small, weighted subset of data that replaces the full dataset during Bayesian inference, with the goal of reducing computational cost. Although past work has shown empirically that there often exists a coreset with low inferential error, efficiently constructing such a coreset remains a challenge. Current methods tend to be slow, require a secondary inference step after coreset construction, and do not provide bounds on the data marginal evidence. In this work, we introduce a new method -- sparse Hamiltonian flows -- that addresses all three of these challenges. The method involves first subsampling the data uniformly, and then optimizing a Hamiltonian flow parametrized by coreset weights and including periodic momentum quasi-refreshment steps. Theoretical results show that the method enables an exponential compression of the dataset in a representative model, and that the quasi-refreshment steps reduce the KL divergence to the target. Real and synthetic experiments demonstrate that sparse Hamiltonian flows provide accurate posterior approximations with significantly reduced runtime compared with competing dynamical-system-based inference methods.