Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the relation between features of past events and future events. It is applied to newly observed events to predict corresponding future events that are evaluated with respect to the user's desired future state. If the predicted future events do not comply with this state, actions are taken towards achieving desirable future states. Evidently, event prediction is valuable in many application domains such as business and natural disasters. The diversity of application domains results in a diverse range of methods that are scattered across various research areas which, in turn, use different terminology for event prediction methods. Consequently, sharing methods and knowledge for developing future event prediction methods is restricted. To facilitate knowledge sharing on account of a comprehensive classification, integration, and assessment of event prediction methods, we combine taxonomies and take a systems perspective to integrate event prediction methods into a single system, elicit requirements and assess existing work with respect to the requirements. Based on the assessment, we identify open challenges and discuss future research directions.

Model evaluation is a critical component in supervised machine learning classification analyses. Traditional metrics do not currently incorporate case difficulty. This renders the classification results unbenchmarked for generalization. Item Response Theory (IRT) and Computer Adaptive Testing (CAT) with machine learning can benchmark datasets independent of the end-classification results. This provides high levels of case-level information regarding evaluation utility. To showcase, two datasets were used: 1) health-related and 2) physical science. For the health dataset a two-parameter IRT model, and for the physical science dataset a polytonomous IRT model, was used to analyze predictive features and place each case on a difficulty continuum. A CAT approach was used to ascertain the algorithms' performance and applicability to new data. This method provides an efficient way to benchmark data, using only a fraction of the dataset (less than 1%) and 22-60x more computationally efficient than traditional metrics. This novel metric, termed Machine Learning Capability (MLC) has additional benefits as it is unbiased to outcome classification and a standardized way to make model comparisons within and across datasets. MLC provides a metric on the limitation of supervised machine learning algorithms. In situations where the algorithm falls short, other input(s) are required for decision-making.

We introduce a new paradigm for generative modeling built on Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), allowing us to train CNFs at unprecedented scale. Specifically, we present the notion of Flow Matching (FM), a simulation-free approach for training CNFs based on regressing vector fields of fixed conditional probability paths. Flow Matching is compatible with a general family of Gaussian probability paths for transforming between noise and data samples -- which subsumes existing diffusion paths as specific instances. Interestingly, we find that employing FM with diffusion paths results in a more robust and stable alternative for training diffusion models. Furthermore, Flow Matching opens the door to training CNFs with other, non-diffusion probability paths. An instance of particular interest is using Optimal Transport (OT) displacement interpolation to define the conditional probability paths. These paths are more efficient than diffusion paths, provide faster training and sampling, and result in better generalization. Training CNFs using Flow Matching on ImageNet leads to consistently better performance than alternative diffusion-based methods in terms of both likelihood and sample quality, and allows fast and reliable sample generation using off-the-shelf numerical ODE solvers.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to find an optimal policy for sequential decision-making using a pre-collected dataset, without further interaction with the environment. Recent theoretical progress has focused on developing sample-efficient offline RL algorithms with various relaxed assumptions on data coverage and function approximators, especially to handle the case with excessively large state-action spaces. Among them, the framework based on the linear-programming (LP) reformulation of Markov decision processes has shown promise: it enables sample-efficient offline RL with function approximation, under only partial data coverage and realizability assumptions on the function classes, with favorable computational tractability. In this work, we revisit the LP framework for offline RL, and provide a new reformulation that advances the existing results in several aspects, relaxing certain assumptions and achieving optimal statistical rates in terms of sample size. Our key enabler is to introduce proper constraints in the reformulation, instead of using any regularization as in the literature, also with careful choices of the function classes and initial state distributions. We hope our insights bring into light the use of LP formulations and the induced primal-dual minimax optimization, in offline RL.

This dissertation highlights the growing interest in and adoption of machine learning (ML) approaches for fault detection in modern power grids. Once a fault has occurred, it must be identified quickly and preventative steps must be taken to remove or insulate it. As a result, detecting, locating, and classifying faults early and accurately can improve safety and dependability while reducing downtime and hardware damage. ML-based solutions and tools to carry out effective data processing and analysis to aid power system operations and decision-making are becoming preeminent with better system condition awareness and data availability. Power transformers, Phase Shift Transformers or Phase Angle Regulators, and transmission lines are critical components in power systems, and ensuring their safety is a primary issue. Differential relays are commonly employed to protect transformers, whereas distance relays are utilized to protect transmission lines. Magnetizing inrush, overexcitation, and current transformer saturation make transformer protection a challenge. Furthermore, non-standard phase shift, series core saturation, low turn-to-turn, and turn-to-ground fault currents are non-traditional problems associated with Phase Angle Regulators. Faults during symmetrical power swings and unstable power swings may cause mal-operation of distance relays and unintentional and uncontrolled islanding. The distance relays also mal-operate for transmission lines connected to type-3 wind farms. The conventional protection techniques would no longer be adequate to address the above challenges due to limitations in handling and analyzing massive amounts of data, limited generalizability, incapability to model non-linear systems, etc. These limitations of differential and distance protection methods bring forward the motivation of using ML in addressing various protection challenges.

Objective: Until now, traditional invasive approaches have been the only means being leveraged to diagnose spinal disorders. Traditional manual diagnostics require a high workload, and diagnostic errors are likely to occur due to the prolonged work of physicians. In this research, we develop an expert system based on a hybrid inference algorithm and comprehensive integrated knowledge for assisting the experts in the fast and high-quality diagnosis of spinal disorders. Methods: First, for each spinal anomaly, the accurate and integrated knowledge was acquired from related experts and resources. Second, based on probability distributions and dependencies between symptoms of each anomaly, a unique numerical value known as certainty effect value was assigned to each symptom. Third, a new hybrid inference algorithm was designed to obtain excellent performance, which was an incorporation of the Backward Chaining Inference and Theory of Uncertainty. Results: The proposed expert system was evaluated in two different phases, real-world samples, and medical records evaluation. Evaluations show that in terms of real-world samples analysis, the system achieved excellent accuracy. Application of the system on the sample with anomalies revealed the degree of severity of disorders and the risk of development of abnormalities in unhealthy and healthy patients. In the case of medical records analysis, our expert system proved to have promising performance, which was very close to those of experts. Conclusion: Evaluations suggest that the proposed expert system provides promising performance, helping specialists to validate the accuracy and integrity of their diagnosis. It can also serve as an intelligent educational software for medical students to gain familiarity with spinal disorder diagnosis process, and related symptoms.

The classic Bayesian persuasion model assumes a Bayesian and best-responding receiver. We study a relaxation of the Bayesian persuasion model where the receiver can approximately best respond to the sender's signaling scheme. We show that, under natural assumptions, (1) the sender can find a signaling scheme that guarantees itself an expected utility almost as good as its optimal utility in the classic model, no matter what approximately best-responding strategy the receiver uses; (2) on the other hand, there is no signaling scheme that gives the sender much more utility than its optimal utility in the classic model, even if the receiver uses the approximately best-responding strategy that is best for the sender. Together, (1) and (2) imply that the approximately best-responding behavior of the receiver does not affect the sender's maximal achievable utility a lot in the Bayesian persuasion problem. The proofs of both results rely on the idea of robustification of a Bayesian persuasion scheme: given a pair of the sender's signaling scheme and the receiver's strategy, we can construct another signaling scheme such that the receiver prefers to use that strategy in the new scheme more than in the original scheme, and the two schemes give the sender similar utilities. As an application of our main result (1), we show that, in a repeated Bayesian persuasion model where the receiver learns to respond to the sender by some algorithms, the sender can do almost as well as in the classic model. Interestingly, unlike (2), with a learning receiver the sender can sometimes do much better than in the classic model.

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of the dynamics of $n^{th}$-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable $m$-step stochastic numerical integrators. We introduce different formulations and training methods for learning models of stochastic dynamics based on observation of trajectory samples. We develop approaches using discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. The adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

Online damage quantification suffers from insufficient labeled data that weakens its accuracy. In this context, adopting the domain adaptation on historical labeled data from similar structures/damages or simulated digital twin data to assist the current diagnosis task would be beneficial. However, most domain adaptation methods are designed for classification and cannot efficiently address damage quantification, a regression problem with continuous real-valued labels. This study first proposes a novel domain adaptation method, the Online Fuzzy-set-based Joint Distribution Adaptation for Regression, to address this challenge. By converting the continuous real-valued labels to fuzzy class labels via fuzzy sets, the marginal and conditional distribution discrepancy are simultaneously measured to achieve the domain adaptation for the damage quantification task. Thanks to the superiority of the proposed method, a state-of-the-art online damage quantification framework based on domain adaptation is presented. Finally, the framework has been comprehensively demonstrated with a damaged helicopter panel, in which three types of damage domain adaptations (across different damage locations, across different damage types, and from simulation to experiment) are all conducted, proving the accuracy of damage quantification can be significantly improved in a realistic environment. It is expected that the proposed approach to be applied to the fleet-level digital twin considering the individual differences.

A key component of cognitive radar is the ability to generalize, or achieve consistent performance across a range of sensing environments, since aspects of the physical scene may vary over time. This presents a challenge for learning-based waveform selection approaches, since transmission policies which are effective in one scene may be highly suboptimal in another. We address this problem by strategically biasing a learning algorithm by exploiting high-level structure across tracking instances, referred to as meta-learning. In this work, we develop an online meta-learning approach for waveform-agile tracking. This approach uses information gained from previous target tracks to speed up and enhance learning in new tracking instances. This results in sample-efficient learning across a class of finite state target channels by exploiting inherent similarity across tracking scenes, attributed to common physical elements such as target type or clutter statistics. We formulate the online waveform selection problem within the framework of Bayesian learning, and provide prior-dependent performance bounds for the meta-learning problem using Probability Approximately Correct (PAC)-Bayes theory. We present a computationally feasible meta-posterior sampling algorithm and study the performance in a simulation study consisting of diverse scenes. Finally, we examine the potential performance benefits and practical challenges associated with online meta-learning for waveform-agile tracking.