How is it that humans can solve complex planning tasks so efficiently despite limited cognitive resources? One reason is its ability to know how to use its limited computational resources to make clever choices. We postulate that people learn this ability from trial and error (metacognitive reinforcement learning). Here, we systematize models of the underlying learning mechanisms and enhance them with more sophisticated additional mechanisms. We fit the resulting 86 models to human data collected in previous experiments where different phenomena of metacognitive learning were demonstrated and performed Bayesian model selection. Our results suggest that a gradient ascent through the space of cognitive strategies can explain most of the observed qualitative phenomena, and is therefore a promising candidate for explaining the mechanism underlying metacognitive learning.

Temporal domain generalization is a promising yet extremely challenging area where the goal is to learn models under temporally changing data distributions and generalize to unseen data distributions following the trends of the change. The advancement of this area is challenged by: 1) characterizing data distribution drift and its impacts on models, 2) expressiveness in tracking the model dynamics, and 3) theoretical guarantee on the performance. To address them, we propose a Temporal Domain Generalization with Drift-Aware Dynamic Neural Network (DRAIN) framework. Specifically, we formulate the problem into a Bayesian framework that jointly models the relation between data and model dynamics. We then build a recurrent graph generation scenario to characterize the dynamic graph-structured neural networks learned across different time points. It captures the temporal drift of model parameters and data distributions and can predict models in the future without the presence of future data. In addition, we explore theoretical guarantees of the model performance under the challenging temporal DG setting and provide theoretical analysis, including uncertainty and generalization error. Finally, extensive experiments on several real-world benchmarks with temporal drift demonstrate the proposed method's effectiveness and efficiency. In machine learning, researchers often assume that training and test data follow the same distribution for the trained model to work on test data with some generalizability.

Why should moral philosophers, moral psychologists, and machine ethicists care about computational complexity? Debates on whether artificial intelligence (AI) can or should be used to solve problems in ethical domains have mainly been driven by what AI can or cannot do in terms of human capacities. In this paper, we tackle the problem from the other end by exploring what kind of moral machines are possible based on what computational systems can or cannot do. To do so, we analyze normative ethics through the lens of computational complexity. First, we introduce computational complexity for the uninitiated reader and discuss how the complexity of ethical problems can be framed within Marr's three levels of analysis. We then study a range of ethical problems based on consequentialism, deontology, and virtue ethics, with the aim of elucidating the complexity associated with the problems themselves (e.g., due to combinatorics, uncertainty, strategic dynamics), the computational methods employed (e.g., probability, logic, learning), and the available resources (e.g., time, knowledge, learning). The results indicate that most problems the normative frameworks pose lead to tractability issues in every category analyzed. Our investigation also provides several insights about the computational nature of normative ethics, including the differences between rule- and outcome-based moral strategies, and the implementation-variance with regard to moral resources. We then discuss the consequences complexity results have for the prospect of moral machines in virtue of the trade-off between optimality and efficiency. Finally, we elucidate how computational complexity can be used to inform both philosophical and cognitive-psychological research on human morality by advancing the Moral Tractability Thesis (MTT).

Disentangled learning representations have promising utility in many applications, but they currently suffer from serious reliability issues. We present Gaussian Channel Autoencoder (GCAE), a method which achieves reliable disentanglement via flexible density estimation of the latent space. GCAE avoids the curse of dimensionality of density estimation by disentangling subsets of its latent space with the Dual Total Correlation (DTC) metric, thereby representing its high-dimensional latent joint distribution as a collection of many low-dimensional conditional distributions. In our experiments, GCAE achieves highly competitive and reliable disentanglement scores compared with state-of-the-art baselines.

The canonical formulation of federated learning treats it as a distributed optimization problem where the model parameters are optimized against a global loss function that decomposes across client loss functions. A recent alternative formulation instead treats federated learning as a distributed inference problem, where the goal is to infer a global posterior from partitioned client data (Al-Shedivat et al., 2021). This paper extends the inference view and describes a variational inference formulation of federated learning where the goal is to find a global variational posterior that well-approximates the true posterior. This naturally motivates an expectation propagation approach to federated learning (FedEP), where approximations to the global posterior are iteratively refined through probabilistic message-passing between the central server and the clients. We conduct an extensive empirical study across various algorithmic considerations and describe practical strategies for scaling up expectation propagation to the modern federated setting. We apply FedEP on standard federated learning benchmarks and find that it outperforms strong baselines in terms of both convergence speed and accuracy. Many applications of machine learning require training a centralized model over decentralized, heterogeneous, and potentially private datasets.

Event prediction is the ability of anticipating future events, i.e., future real-world occurrences, and aims to support the user in deciding on actions that change future events towards a desired state. An event prediction method learns the relation between features of past events and future events. It is applied to newly observed events to predict corresponding future events that are evaluated with respect to the user's desired future state. If the predicted future events do not comply with this state, actions are taken towards achieving desirable future states. Evidently, event prediction is valuable in many application domains such as business and natural disasters. The diversity of application domains results in a diverse range of methods that are scattered across various research areas which, in turn, use different terminology for event prediction methods. Consequently, sharing methods and knowledge for developing future event prediction methods is restricted. To facilitate knowledge sharing on account of a comprehensive classification, integration, and assessment of event prediction methods, we combine taxonomies and take a systems perspective to integrate event prediction methods into a single system, elicit requirements and assess existing work with respect to the requirements. Based on the assessment, we identify open challenges and discuss future research directions.

Model evaluation is a critical component in supervised machine learning classification analyses. Traditional metrics do not currently incorporate case difficulty. This renders the classification results unbenchmarked for generalization. Item Response Theory (IRT) and Computer Adaptive Testing (CAT) with machine learning can benchmark datasets independent of the end-classification results. This provides high levels of case-level information regarding evaluation utility. To showcase, two datasets were used: 1) health-related and 2) physical science. For the health dataset a two-parameter IRT model, and for the physical science dataset a polytonomous IRT model, was used to analyze predictive features and place each case on a difficulty continuum. A CAT approach was used to ascertain the algorithms' performance and applicability to new data. This method provides an efficient way to benchmark data, using only a fraction of the dataset (less than 1%) and 22-60x more computationally efficient than traditional metrics. This novel metric, termed Machine Learning Capability (MLC) has additional benefits as it is unbiased to outcome classification and a standardized way to make model comparisons within and across datasets. MLC provides a metric on the limitation of supervised machine learning algorithms. In situations where the algorithm falls short, other input(s) are required for decision-making.

We introduce a new paradigm for generative modeling built on Continuous Normalizing Flows (CNFs), allowing us to train CNFs at unprecedented scale. Specifically, we present the notion of Flow Matching (FM), a simulation-free approach for training CNFs based on regressing vector fields of fixed conditional probability paths. Flow Matching is compatible with a general family of Gaussian probability paths for transforming between noise and data samples -- which subsumes existing diffusion paths as specific instances. Interestingly, we find that employing FM with diffusion paths results in a more robust and stable alternative for training diffusion models. Furthermore, Flow Matching opens the door to training CNFs with other, non-diffusion probability paths. An instance of particular interest is using Optimal Transport (OT) displacement interpolation to define the conditional probability paths. These paths are more efficient than diffusion paths, provide faster training and sampling, and result in better generalization. Training CNFs using Flow Matching on ImageNet leads to consistently better performance than alternative diffusion-based methods in terms of both likelihood and sample quality, and allows fast and reliable sample generation using off-the-shelf numerical ODE solvers.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) aims to find an optimal policy for sequential decision-making using a pre-collected dataset, without further interaction with the environment. Recent theoretical progress has focused on developing sample-efficient offline RL algorithms with various relaxed assumptions on data coverage and function approximators, especially to handle the case with excessively large state-action spaces. Among them, the framework based on the linear-programming (LP) reformulation of Markov decision processes has shown promise: it enables sample-efficient offline RL with function approximation, under only partial data coverage and realizability assumptions on the function classes, with favorable computational tractability. In this work, we revisit the LP framework for offline RL, and provide a new reformulation that advances the existing results in several aspects, relaxing certain assumptions and achieving optimal statistical rates in terms of sample size. Our key enabler is to introduce proper constraints in the reformulation, instead of using any regularization as in the literature, also with careful choices of the function classes and initial state distributions. We hope our insights bring into light the use of LP formulations and the induced primal-dual minimax optimization, in offline RL.

This dissertation highlights the growing interest in and adoption of machine learning (ML) approaches for fault detection in modern power grids. Once a fault has occurred, it must be identified quickly and preventative steps must be taken to remove or insulate it. As a result, detecting, locating, and classifying faults early and accurately can improve safety and dependability while reducing downtime and hardware damage. ML-based solutions and tools to carry out effective data processing and analysis to aid power system operations and decision-making are becoming preeminent with better system condition awareness and data availability. Power transformers, Phase Shift Transformers or Phase Angle Regulators, and transmission lines are critical components in power systems, and ensuring their safety is a primary issue. Differential relays are commonly employed to protect transformers, whereas distance relays are utilized to protect transmission lines. Magnetizing inrush, overexcitation, and current transformer saturation make transformer protection a challenge. Furthermore, non-standard phase shift, series core saturation, low turn-to-turn, and turn-to-ground fault currents are non-traditional problems associated with Phase Angle Regulators. Faults during symmetrical power swings and unstable power swings may cause mal-operation of distance relays and unintentional and uncontrolled islanding. The distance relays also mal-operate for transmission lines connected to type-3 wind farms. The conventional protection techniques would no longer be adequate to address the above challenges due to limitations in handling and analyzing massive amounts of data, limited generalizability, incapability to model non-linear systems, etc. These limitations of differential and distance protection methods bring forward the motivation of using ML in addressing various protection challenges.