Uncertainty
Probabilistic Qualitative Localization and Mapping
Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) are essential in numerous robotics applications, such as autonomous navigation. Traditional SLAM approaches infer the metric state of the robot along with a metric map of the environment. While existing algorithms exhibit good results, they are still sensitive to measurement noise, sensor quality, and data association and are still computationally expensive. Alternatively, some navigation and mapping missions can be achieved using only qualitative geometric information, an approach known as qualitative spatial reasoning (QSR). We contribute a novel probabilistic qualitative localization and mapping approach in this work. We infer both the qualitative map and the qualitative state of the camera poses (localization). For the first time, we also incorporate qualitative probabilistic constraints between camera poses (motion model), improving computation time and performance. Furthermore, we take advantage of qualitative inference properties to achieve very fast approximated algorithms with good performance. In addition, we show how to propagate probabilistic information between nodes in the qualitative map, which improves estimation performance and enables inference of unseen map nodes - an important building block for qualitative active planning. We also conduct a study that shows how well we can estimate unseen nodes. Our method particularly appeals to scenarios with few salient landmarks and low-quality sensors. We evaluate our approach in simulation and on a real-world dataset and show its superior performance and low complexity compared to the state-of-the-art. Our analysis also indicates good prospects for using qualitative navigation and planning in real-world scenarios.
Imitating Past Successes can be Very Suboptimal
Eysenbach, Benjamin, Udatha, Soumith, Levine, Sergey, Salakhutdinov, Ruslan
Prior work has proposed a simple strategy for reinforcement learning (RL): label experience with the outcomes achieved in that experience, and then imitate the relabeled experience. These outcome-conditioned imitation learning methods are appealing because of their simplicity, strong performance, and close ties with supervised learning. However, it remains unclear how these methods relate to the standard RL objective, reward maximization. In this paper, we formally relate outcome-conditioned imitation learning to reward maximization, drawing a precise relationship between the learned policy and Q-values and explaining the close connections between these methods and prior EM-based policy search methods. This analysis shows that existing outcome-conditioned imitation learning methods do not necessarily improve the policy, but a simple modification results in a method that does guarantee policy improvement, under some assumptions.
Towards Automated Homomorphic Encryption Parameter Selection with Fuzzy Logic and Linear Programming
Cabrero-Holgueras, Josรฉ, Pastrana, Sergio
Homomorphic Encryption (HE) is a set of powerful properties of certain cryptosystems that allow for privacy-preserving operation over the encrypted text. Still, HE is not widespread due to limitations in terms of efficiency and usability. Among the challenges of HE, scheme parametrization (i.e., the selection of appropriate parameters within the algorithms) is a relevant multi-faced problem. First, the parametrization needs to comply with a set of properties to guarantee the security of the underlying scheme. Second, parametrization requires a deep understanding of the low-level primitives since the parameters have a confronting impact on the precision, performance, and security of the scheme. Finally, the circuit to be executed influences, and it is influenced by, the parametrization. Thus, there is no general optimal selection of parameters, and this selection depends on the circuit and the scenario of the application. Currently, most of the existing HE frameworks require cryptographers to address these considerations manually. It requires a minimum of expertise acquired through a steep learning curve. In this paper, we propose a unified solution for the aforementioned challenges. Concretely, we present an expert system combining Fuzzy Logic and Linear Programming. The Fuzzy Logic Modules receive a user selection of high-level priorities for the security, efficiency, and performance of the cryptosystem. Based on these preferences, the expert system generates a Linear Programming Model that obtains optimal combinations of parameters by considering those priorities while preserving a minimum level of security for the cryptosystem. We conduct an extended evaluation where we show that an expert system generates optimal parameter selections that maintain user preferences without undergoing the inherent complexity of analyzing the circuit.
A Bayesian Perspective for Determinant Minimization Based Robust Structured Matrix Factorizatio
Tatli, Gokcan, Erdogan, Alper T.
We introduce a Bayesian perspective for the structured matrix factorization problem. The proposed framework provides a probabilistic interpretation for existing geometric methods based on determinant minimization. We model input data vectors as linear transformations of latent vectors drawn from a distribution uniform over a particular domain reflecting structural assumptions, such as the probability simplex in Nonnegative Matrix Factorization and polytopes in Polytopic Matrix Factorization. We represent the rows of the linear transformation matrix as vectors generated independently from a normal distribution whose covariance matrix is inverse Wishart distributed. We show that the corresponding maximum a posteriori estimation problem boils down to the robust determinant minimization approach for structured matrix factorization, providing insights about parameter selections and potential algorithmic extensions.
Foundation Models for Natural Language Processing -- Pre-trained Language Models Integrating Media
Paaร, Gerhard, Giesselbach, Sven
This open access book provides a comprehensive overview of the state of the art in research and applications of Foundation Models and is intended for readers familiar with basic Natural Language Processing (NLP) concepts. Over the recent years, a revolutionary new paradigm has been developed for training models for NLP. These models are first pre-trained on large collections of text documents to acquire general syntactic knowledge and semantic information. Then, they are fine-tuned for specific tasks, which they can often solve with superhuman accuracy. When the models are large enough, they can be instructed by prompts to solve new tasks without any fine-tuning. Moreover, they can be applied to a wide range of different media and problem domains, ranging from image and video processing to robot control learning. Because they provide a blueprint for solving many tasks in artificial intelligence, they have been called Foundation Models. After a brief introduction to basic NLP models the main pre-trained language models BERT, GPT and sequence-to-sequence transformer are described, as well as the concepts of self-attention and context-sensitive embedding. Then, different approaches to improving these models are discussed, such as expanding the pre-training criteria, increasing the length of input texts, or including extra knowledge. An overview of the best-performing models for about twenty application areas is then presented, e.g., question answering, translation, story generation, dialog systems, generating images from text, etc. For each application area, the strengths and weaknesses of current models are discussed, and an outlook on further developments is given. In addition, links are provided to freely available program code. A concluding chapter summarizes the economic opportunities, mitigation of risks, and potential developments of AI.
MM Algorithms to Estimate Parameters in Continuous-time Markov Chains
Bacci, Giovanni, Ingรณlfsdรณttir, Anna, Larsen, Kim G., Reynouard, Raphaรซl
Continuous-time Markov chains (CTMCs) are popular modeling formalism that constitutes the underlying semantics for real-time probabilistic systems such as queuing networks, stochastic process algebras, and calculi for systems biology. Prism and Storm are popular model checking tools that provide a number of powerful analysis techniques for CTMCs. These tools accept models expressed as the parallel composition of a number of modules interacting with each other. The outcome of the analysis is strongly dependent on the parameter values used in the model which govern the timing and probability of events of the resulting CTMC. However, for some applications, parameter values have to be empirically estimated from partially-observable executions. In this work, we address the problem of estimating parameter values of CTMCs expressed as Prism models from a number of partially-observable executions. We introduce the class parametric CTMCs -- CTMCs where transition rates are polynomial functions over a set of parameters -- as an abstraction of CTMCs covering a large class of Prism models. Then, building on a theory of algorithms known by the initials MM, for minorization-maximization, we present iterative maximum likelihood estimation algorithms for parametric CTMCs covering two learning scenarios: when both state-labels and dwell times are observable, or just state-labels are. We conclude by illustrating the use of our technique in a simple but non-trivial case study: the analysis of the spread of COVID-19 in presence of lockdown countermeasures.
Learning Causal Representations of Single Cells via Sparse Mechanism Shift Modeling
Lopez, Romain, Tagasovska, Nataลกa, Ra, Stephen, Cho, Kyunghyn, Pritchard, Jonathan K., Regev, Aviv
Latent variable models such as the Variational Auto-Encoder (VAE) have become a go-to tool for analyzing biological data, especially in the field of single-cell genomics. One remaining challenge is the interpretability of latent variables as biological processes that define a cell's identity. Outside of biological applications, this problem is commonly referred to as learning disentangled representations. Although several disentanglement-promoting variants of the VAE were introduced, and applied to single-cell genomics data, this task has been shown to be infeasible from independent and identically distributed measurements, without additional structure. Instead, recent methods propose to leverage non-stationary data, as well as the sparse mechanism shift assumption in order to learn disentangled representations with a causal semantic. Here, we extend the application of these methodological advances to the analysis of single-cell genomics data with genetic or chemical perturbations. More precisely, we propose a deep generative model of single-cell gene expression data for which each perturbation is treated as a stochastic intervention targeting an unknown, but sparse, subset of latent variables. We benchmark these methods on simulated single-cell data to evaluate their performance at latent units recovery, causal target identification and out-of-domain generalization. Finally, we apply those approaches to two real-world large-scale gene perturbation data sets and find that models that exploit the sparse mechanism shift hypothesis surpass contemporary methods on a transfer learning task. We implement our new model and benchmarks using the scvi-tools library, and release it as open-source software at https://github.com/Genentech/sVAE.
Entity Aware Modelling: A Survey
Ghosh, Rahul, Yang, Haoyu, Khandelwal, Ankush, He, Erhu, Renganathan, Arvind, Sharma, Somya, Jia, Xiaowei, Kumar, Vipin
Personalized prediction of responses for individual entities caused by external drivers is vital across many disciplines. Recent machine learning (ML) advances have led to new state-of-the-art response prediction models. Models built at a population level often lead to sub-optimal performance in many personalized prediction settings due to heterogeneity in data across entities (tasks). In personalized prediction, the goal is to incorporate inherent characteristics of different entities to improve prediction performance. In this survey, we focus on the recent developments in the ML community for such entity-aware modeling approaches. ML algorithms often modulate the network using these entity characteristics when they are readily available. However, these entity characteristics are not readily available in many real-world scenarios, and different ML methods have been proposed to infer these characteristics from the data. In this survey, we have organized the current literature on entity-aware modeling based on the availability of these characteristics as well as the amount of training data. We highlight how recent innovations in other disciplines, such as uncertainty quantification, fairness, and knowledge-guided machine learning, can improve entity-aware modeling.
Deep Variational Implicit Processes
Ortega, Luis A., Santana, Simรณn Rodrรญguez, Hernรกndez-Lobato, Daniel
Implicit processes (IPs) are a generalization of Gaussian processes (GPs). IPs may lack a closed-form expression but are easy to sample from. Examples include, among others, Bayesian neural networks or neural samplers. IPs can be used as priors over functions, resulting in flexible models with well-calibrated prediction uncertainty estimates. Methods based on IPs usually carry out function-space approximate inference, which overcomes some of the difficulties of parameterspace approximate inference. Nevertheless, the approximations employed often limit the expressiveness of the final model, resulting, e.g., in a Gaussian predictive distribution, which can be restrictive. We propose here a multi-layer generalization of IPs called the Deep Variational Implicit process (DVIP). This generalization is similar to that of deep GPs over GPs, but it is more flexible due to the use of IPs as the prior distribution over the latent functions. We describe a scalable variational inference algorithm for training DVIP and show that it outperforms previous IPbased methods and also deep GPs. We support these claims via extensive regression and classification experiments. We also evaluate DVIP on large datasets with up to several million data instances to illustrate its good scalability and performance. The Bayesian approach has become popular for capturing the uncertainty associated to the predictions made by models that otherwise provide point-wise estimates, such as neural networks (NNs) (Gelman et al., 2013; Gal, 2016; Murphy, 2012). However, when carrying out Bayesian inference, obtaining the posterior distribution in the space of parameters can become a limiting factor since it is often intractable. Symmetries and strong dependencies between parameters make the approximate inference problem much more complex. This is precisely the case in large deep NNs. Nevertheless, all these issues can be alleviated by carrying out approximate inference in the space of functions, which presents certain advantages due to the simplified problem.
Dr. Neurosymbolic, or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Accept Statistics
The symbolic AI community is increasingly trying to embrace machine learning in neuro-symbolic architectures, yet is still struggling due to cultural barriers. To break the barrier, this rather opinionated personal memo attempts to explain and rectify the conventions in Statistics, Machine Learning, and Deep Learning from the viewpoint of outsiders. It provides a step-by-step protocol for designing a machine learning system that satisfies a minimum theoretical guarantee necessary for being taken seriously by the symbolic AI community, i.e., it discusses "in what condition we can stop worrying and accept statistical machine learning." Unlike most textbooks which are written for students trying to specialize in Stat/ML/DL and willing to accept jargons, this memo is written for experienced symbolic researchers that hear a lot of buzz but are still uncertain and skeptical. Information on Stat/ML/DL is currently too scattered or too noisy to invest in. This memo prioritizes compactness, citations to old papers (many in early 20th century), and concepts that resonate well with symbolic paradigms in order to offer time savings. It prioritizes general mathematical modeling and does not discuss any specific function approximator, such as neural networks (NNs), SVMs, decision trees, etc. Finally, it is open to corrections. Consider this memo as something similar to a blog post taking the form of a paper on Arxiv.