Over the past three decades, the logic programming paradigm has been successfully expanded to support probabilistic modeling, inference and learning. The resulting paradigm of probabilistic logic programming (PLP) and its programming languages owes much of its success to a declarative semantics, the so-called distribution semantics. However, the distribution semantics is limited to discrete random variables only. While PLP has been extended in various ways for supporting hybrid, that is, mixed discrete and continuous random variables, we are still lacking a declarative semantics for hybrid PLP that not only generalizes the distribution semantics and the modeling language but also the standard inference algorithm that is based on knowledge compilation. We contribute the hybrid distribution semantics together with the hybrid PLP language DC-ProbLog and its inference engine infinitesimal algebraic likelihood weighting (IALW). These have the original distribution semantics, standard PLP languages such as ProbLog, and standard inference engines for PLP based on knowledge compilation as special cases. Thus, we generalize the state-of-the-art of PLP towards hybrid PLP in three different aspects: semantics, language and inference. Furthermore, IALW is the first inference algorithm for hybrid probabilistic programming based on knowledge compilation.

In fields such as medicine and drug discovery, the ultimate goal of a classification is not to guess a class, but to choose the optimal course of action among a set of possible ones, usually not in one-one correspondence with the set of classes. This decision-theoretic problem requires sensible probabilities for the classes. Probabilities conditional on the features are computationally almost impossible to find in many important cases. The main idea of the present work is to calculate probabilities conditional not on the features, but on the trained classifier's output. This calculation is cheap, needs to be made only once, and provides an output-to-probability "transducer" that can be applied to all future outputs of the classifier. In conjunction with problem-dependent utilities, the probabilities of the transducer allow us to find the optimal choice among the classes or among a set of more general decisions, by means of expected-utility maximization. This idea is demonstrated in a simplified drug-discovery problem with a highly imbalanced dataset. The transducer and utility maximization together always lead to improved results, sometimes close to theoretical maximum, for all sets of problem-dependent utilities. The one-time-only calculation of the transducer also provides, automatically: (i) a quantification of the uncertainty about the transducer itself; (ii) the expected utility of the augmented algorithm (including its uncertainty), which can be used for algorithm selection; (iii) the possibility of using the algorithm in a "generative mode", useful if the training dataset is biased.

Bayesian model comparison (BMC) offers a principled probabilistic approach to study and rank competing models. In standard BMC, we construct a discrete probability distribution over the set of possible models, conditional on the observed data of interest. These posterior model probabilities (PMPs) are measures of uncertainty, but -- when derived from a finite number of observations -- are also uncertain themselves. In this paper, we conceptualize distinct levels of uncertainty which arise in BMC. We explore a fully probabilistic framework for quantifying meta-uncertainty, resulting in an applied method to enhance any BMC workflow. Drawing on both Bayesian and frequentist techniques, we represent the uncertainty over the uncertain PMPs via meta-models which combine simulated and observed data into a predictive distribution for PMPs on new data. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed method in the context of conjugate Bayesian regression, likelihood-based inference with Markov chain Monte Carlo, and simulation-based inference with neural networks.

We present the E-UC$^3$RL algorithm for regret minimization in Stochastic Contextual Markov Decision Processes (CMDPs). The algorithm operates under the minimal assumptions of realizable function class and access to \emph{offline} least squares and log loss regression oracles. Our algorithm is efficient (assuming efficient offline regression oracles) and enjoys a regret guarantee of $ \widetilde{O}(H^3 \sqrt{T |S| |A|d_{\mathrm{E}}(\mathcal{P}) \log (|\mathcal{F}| |\mathcal{P}|/ \delta) )}) , $ with $T$ being the number of episodes, $S$ the state space, $A$ the action space, $H$ the horizon, $\mathcal{P}$ and $\mathcal{F}$ are finite function classes used to approximate the context-dependent dynamics and rewards, respectively, and $d_{\mathrm{E}}(\mathcal{P})$ is the Eluder dimension of $\mathcal{P}$ w.r.t the Hellinger distance. To the best of our knowledge, our algorithm is the first efficient and rate-optimal regret minimization algorithm for CMDPs that operates under the general offline function approximation setting. In addition, we extend the Eluder dimension to general bounded metrics which may be of separate interest.

The parameters of a machine learning model are typically learned by minimizing a loss function on a set of training data. However, this can come with the risk of overtraining; in order for the model to generalize well, it is of great importance that we are able to find the optimal parameter for the model on the entire population -- not only on the given training sample. In this paper, we construct valid confidence sets for this optimal parameter of a machine learning model, which can be generated using only the training data without any knowledge of the population. We then show that studying the distribution of this confidence set allows us to assign a notion of confidence to arbitrary regions of the parameter space, and we demonstrate that this distribution can be well-approximated using bootstrapping techniques.

We study the problem of deployment efficient reinforcement learning (RL) with linear function approximation under the \emph{reward-free} exploration setting. This is a well-motivated problem because deploying new policies is costly in real-life RL applications. Under the linear MDP setting with feature dimension $d$ and planning horizon $H$, we propose a new algorithm that collects at most $\widetilde{O}(\frac{d^2H^5}{\epsilon^2})$ trajectories within $H$ deployments to identify $\epsilon$-optimal policy for any (possibly data-dependent) choice of reward functions. To the best of our knowledge, our approach is the first to achieve optimal deployment complexity and optimal $d$ dependence in sample complexity at the same time, even if the reward is known ahead of time. Our novel techniques include an exploration-preserving policy discretization and a generalized G-optimal experiment design, which could be of independent interest. Lastly, we analyze the related problem of regret minimization in low-adaptive RL and provide information-theoretic lower bounds for switching cost and batch complexity.

In this paper, we consider the task of clustering a set of individual time series while modeling each cluster, that is, model-based time series clustering. The task requires a parametric model with sufficient flexibility to describe the dynamics in various time series. To address this problem, we propose a novel model-based time series clustering method with mixtures of linear Gaussian state space models, which have high flexibility. The proposed method uses a new expectation-maximization algorithm for the mixture model to estimate the model parameters, and determines the number of clusters using the Bayesian information criterion. Experiments on a simulated dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in clustering, parameter estimation, and model selection. The method is applied to real datasets commonly used to evaluate time series clustering methods. Results showed that the proposed method produces clustering results that are as accurate or more accurate than those obtained using previous methods.

Feature selection is an effective preprocessing technique to reduce data dimension. For feature selection, rough set theory provides many measures, among which mutual information is one of the most important attribute measures. However, mutual information based importance measures are computationally expensive and inaccurate, especially in hypersample instances, and it is undoubtedly a NP-hard problem in high-dimensional hyperhigh-dimensional data sets. Although many representative group intelligent algorithm feature selection strategies have been proposed so far to improve the accuracy, there is still a bottleneck when using these feature selection algorithms to process high-dimensional large-scale data sets, which consumes a lot of performance and is easy to select weakly correlated and redundant features. In this study, we propose an incremental mutual information based improved swarm intelligent optimization method (IMIICSO), which uses rough set theory to calculate the importance of feature selection based on mutual information. This method extracts decision table reduction knowledge to guide group algorithm global search. By exploring the computation of mutual information of supersamples, we can not only discard the useless features to speed up the internal and external computation, but also effectively reduce the cardinality of the optimal feature subset by using IMIICSO method, so that the cardinality is minimized by comparison. The accuracy of feature subsets selected by the improved cockroach swarm algorithm based on incremental mutual information is better or almost the same as that of the original swarm intelligent optimization algorithm. Experiments using 10 datasets derived from UCI, including large scale and high dimensional datasets, confirmed the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

Unsupervised learning with functional data is an emerging paradigm of machine learning research with applications to computer vision, climate modeling and physical systems. A natural way of modeling functional data is by learning operators between infinite dimensional spaces, leading to discretization invariant representations that scale independently of the sample grid resolution. Here we present Variational Autoencoding Neural Operators (VANO), a general strategy for making a large class of operator learning architectures act as variational autoencoders. For this purpose, we provide a novel rigorous mathematical formulation of the variational objective in function spaces for training. VANO first maps an input function to a distribution over a latent space using a parametric encoder and then decodes a sample from the latent distribution to reconstruct the input, as in classic variational autoencoders. We test VANO with different model set-ups and architecture choices for a variety of benchmarks. We start from a simple Gaussian random field where we can analytically track what the model learns and progressively transition to more challenging benchmarks including modeling phase separation in Cahn-Hilliard systems and real world satellite data for measuring Earth surface deformation.

Prediction of multi-dimensional labels plays an important role in machine learning problems. We found that the classical binary labels could not reflect the contents and their relationships in an instance. Hence, we propose a multi-label classification model based on interval type-2 fuzzy logic. In the proposed model, we use a deep neural network to predict the type-1 fuzzy membership of an instance and another one to predict the fuzzifiers of the membership to generate interval type-2 fuzzy memberships. We also propose a loss function to measure the similarities between binary labels in datasets and interval type-2 fuzzy memberships generated by our model. The experiments validate that our approach outperforms baselines on multi-label classification benchmarks.