Electricity is traded on various markets with different time horizons and regulations. Short-term intraday trading becomes increasingly important due to the higher penetration of renewables. In Germany, the intraday electricity price typically fluctuates around the day-ahead price of the European Power EXchange (EPEX) spot markets in a distinct hourly pattern. This work proposes a probabilistic modeling approach that models the intraday price difference to the day-ahead contracts. The model captures the emerging hourly pattern by considering the four 15 min intervals in each day-ahead price interval as a four-dimensional joint probability distribution. The resulting nontrivial, multivariate price difference distribution is learned using a normalizing flow, i.e., a deep generative model that combines conditional multivariate density estimation and probabilistic regression. Furthermore, this work discusses the influence of different external impact factors based on literature insights and impact analysis using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). The normalizing flow is compared to an informed selection of historical data and probabilistic forecasts using a Gaussian copula and a Gaussian regression model. Among the different models, the normalizing flow identifies the trends with the highest accuracy and has the narrowest prediction intervals. Both the XAI analysis and the empirical experiments highlight that the immediate history of the price difference realization and the increments of the day-ahead price have the most substantial impact on the price difference.

Retinal microsurgery is a high-precision surgery performed on an exceedingly delicate tissue. It now requires extensively trained and highly skilled surgeons. Given the restricted range of instrument motion in the confined intraocular space, and also potentially restricting instrument contact with the sclera, snake-like robots may prove to be a promising technology to provide surgeons with greater flexibility, dexterity, space access, and positioning accuracy during retinal procedures requiring high precision and advantageous tooltip approach angles, such as retinal vein cannulation and epiretinal membrane peeling. Kinematics modeling of these robots is an essential step toward accurate position control, however, as opposed to conventional manipulators, modeling of these robots does not follow a straightforward method due to their complex mechanical structure and actuation mechanisms. Especially, in wire-driven snake-like robots, the hysteresis problem due to the wire tension condition can have a significant impact on the positioning accuracy of these robots. In this paper, we proposed an experimental kinematics model with a hysteresis compensation algorithm using the probabilistic Gaussian mixture models (GMM) Gaussian mixture regression (GMR) approach. Experimental results on the two-degree-of-freedom (DOF) integrated robotic intraocular snake (I2RIS) show that the proposed model provides 0.4 deg accuracy, which is an overall 60% and 70% of improvement for yaw and pitch degrees of freedom, respectively, compared to a previous model of this robot.

Epidemic models are powerful tools in understanding infectious disease. However, as they increase in size and complexity, they can quickly become computationally intractable. Recent progress in modelling methodology has shown that surrogate models can be used to emulate complex epidemic models with a high-dimensional parameter space. We show that deep sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) models can serve as accurate surrogates for complex epidemic models with sequence based model parameters, effectively replicating seasonal and long-term transmission dynamics. Once trained, our surrogate can predict scenarios a several thousand times faster than the original model, making them ideal for policy exploration. We demonstrate that replacing a traditional epidemic model with a learned simulator facilitates robust Bayesian inference.

Vine copulas can efficiently model multivariate probability distributions. This paper focuses on a more thorough understanding of their structures, since in the literature, vine copula representations are often ambiguous. The graph representations include the original, cherry and chordal graph sequence structures, which we show equivalence between. Importantly we also show a new result, namely that when a perfect elimination ordering of a vine structure is given, then it can always be uniquely represented with a matrix. O. M. N\'apoles has shown a way to represent vines in a matrix, and we algorithmify this previous approach, while also showing a new method for constructing such a matrix, through cherry tree sequences. We also calculate the runtime of these algorithms. Lastly, we prove that these two matrix-building algorithms are equivalent if the same perfect elimination ordering is being used.

Causal discovery aims to uncover causal structure among a set of variables. Score-based approaches mainly focus on searching for the best Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) based on a predefined score function. However, most of them are not applicable on a large scale due to the limited searchability. Inspired by the active learning in generative flow networks, we propose a novel approach to learning a DAG from observational data called GFlowCausal. It converts the graph search problem to a generation problem, in which direct edges are added gradually. GFlowCausal aims to learn the best policy to generate high-reward DAGs by sequential actions with probabilities proportional to predefined rewards. We propose a plug-and-play module based on transitive closure to ensure efficient sampling. Theoretical analysis shows that this module could guarantee acyclicity properties effectively and the consistency between final states and fully-connected graphs. We conduct extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets, and results show the proposed approach to be superior and also performs well in a large-scale setting.

Abstract-- General robotic grippers are challenging to control because of their rich nonsmooth contact dynamics and the many sources of uncertainties due to the environment or sensor noise. In this work, we demonstrate how to compute 6-DoF grasp poses using simulation-based Bayesian inference through the full stochastic forward simulation of the robot in its environment while robustly accounting for many of the uncertainties in the system. A Riemannian manifold optimization procedure preserving the nonlinearity of the rotation space is used to compute the maximum a posteriori grasp pose. Simulation and physical benchmarks show the promising high success rate of the approach. Industrial grasping works very well in highly structured environments with few uncertainties.

This position paper reflects on the state-of-the-art in decision-making under uncertainty. A classical assumption is that probabilities can sufficiently capture all uncertainty in a system. In this paper, the focus is on the uncertainty that goes beyond this classical interpretation, particularly by employing a clear distinction between aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The paper features an overview of Markov decision processes (MDPs) and extensions to account for partial observability and adversarial behavior. These models sufficiently capture aleatoric uncertainty but fail to account for epistemic uncertainty robustly. Consequently, we present a thorough overview of so-called uncertainty models that exhibit uncertainty in a more robust interpretation. We show several solution techniques for both discrete and continuous models, ranging from formal verification, over control-based abstractions, to reinforcement learning. As an integral part of this paper, we list and discuss several key challenges that arise when dealing with rich types of uncertainty in a model-based fashion.

We develop the theory of hypothesis testing based on the e-value, a notion of evidence that, unlike the p-value, allows for effortlessly combining results from several studies in the common scenario where the decision to perform a new study may depend on previous outcomes. Tests based on e-values are safe, i.e. they preserve Type-I error guarantees, under such optional continuation. We define growth-rate optimality (GRO) as an analogue of power in an optional continuation context, and we show how to construct GRO e-variables for general testing problems with composite null and alternative, emphasizing models with nuisance parameters. GRO e-values take the form of Bayes factors with special priors. We illustrate the theory using several classic examples including a one-sample safe t-test and the 2 x 2 contingency table. Sharing Fisherian, Neymanian and Jeffreys-Bayesian interpretations, e-values may provide a methodology acceptable to adherents of all three schools.

A generative model based on a continuous-time normalizing flow between any pair of base and target probability densities is proposed. The velocity field of this flow is inferred from the probability current of a time-dependent density that interpolates between the base and the target in finite time. Unlike conventional normalizing flow inference methods based the maximum likelihood principle, which require costly backpropagation through ODE solvers, our interpolant approach leads to a simple quadratic loss for the velocity itself which is expressed in terms of expectations that are readily amenable to empirical estimation. The flow can be used to generate samples from either the base or target, and to estimate the likelihood at any time along the interpolant. In addition, the flow can be optimized to minimize the path length of the interpolant density, thereby paving the way for building optimal transport maps. In situations where the base is a Gaussian density, we also show that the velocity of our normalizing flow can also be used to construct a diffusion model to sample the target as well as estimate its score. However, our approach shows that we can bypass this diffusion completely and work at the level of the probability flow with greater simplicity, opening an avenue for methods based solely on ordinary differential equations as an alternative to those based on stochastic differential equations. Benchmarking on density estimation tasks illustrates that the learned flow can match and surpass conventional continuous flows at a fraction of the cost, and compares well with diffusions on image generation on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet $32\times32$. The method scales ab-initio ODE flows to previously unreachable image resolutions, demonstrated up to $128\times128$.

We consider the problem of learning a Gaussian graphical model in the case where the observations come from two dependent groups sharing the same variables. We focus on a family of coloured Gaussian graphical models specifically suited for the paired data problem. Commonly, graphical models are ordered by the submodel relationship so that the search space is a lattice, called the model inclusion lattice. We introduce a novel order between models, named the twin order. We show that, embedded with this order, the model space is a lattice that, unlike the model inclusion lattice, is distributive. Furthermore, we provide the relevant rules for the computation of the neighbours of a model. The latter are more efficient than the same operations in the model inclusion lattice, and are then exploited to achieve a more efficient exploration of the search space. These results can be applied to improve the efficiency of both greedy and Bayesian model search procedures. Here we implement a stepwise backward elimination procedure and evaluate its performance by means of simulations. Finally, the procedure is applied to learn a brain network from fMRI data where the two groups correspond to the left and right hemispheres, respectively.