Understanding generalization is crucial to confidently engineer and deploy machine learning models, especially when deployment implies a shift in the data domain. For such domain adaptation problems, we seek generalization bounds which are tractably computable and tight. If these desiderata can be reached, the bounds can serve as guarantees for adequate performance in deployment. However, in applications where deep neural networks are the models of choice, deriving results which fulfill these remains an unresolved challenge; most existing bounds are either vacuous or has non-estimable terms, even in favorable conditions. In this work, we evaluate existing bounds from the literature with potential to satisfy our desiderata on domain adaptation image classification tasks, where deep neural networks are preferred. We find that all bounds are vacuous and that sample generalization terms account for much of the observed looseness, especially when these terms interact with measures of domain shift. To overcome this and arrive at the tightest possible results, we combine each bound with recent data-dependent PAC-Bayes analysis, greatly improving the guarantees. We find that, when domain overlap can be assumed, a simple importance weighting extension of previous work provides the tightest estimable bound. Finally, we study which terms dominate the bounds and identify possible directions for further improvement.

This paper studies offline policy learning, which aims at utilizing observations collected a priori (from either fixed or adaptively evolving behavior policies) to learn the optimal individualized decision rule in a given class. Existing policy learning methods rely on a uniform overlap assumption, i.e., the propensities of exploring all actions for all individual characteristics are lower bounded in the offline dataset. In other words, the performance of these methods depends on the worst-case propensity in the offline dataset. As one has no control over the data collection process, this assumption can be unrealistic in many situations, especially when the behavior policies are allowed to evolve over time with diminishing propensities. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm that optimizes lower confidence bounds (LCBs) -- instead of point estimates -- of the policy values. The LCBs are constructed by quantifying the estimation uncertainty of the augmented inverse propensity weighted (AIPW)-type estimators using knowledge of the behavior policies for collecting the offline data. Without assuming any uniform overlap condition, we establish a data-dependent upper bound for the suboptimality of our algorithm, which depends only on (i) the overlap for the optimal policy, and (ii) the complexity of the policy class. As an implication, for adaptively collected data, we ensure efficient policy learning as long as the propensities for optimal actions are lower bounded over time, while those for suboptimal ones are allowed to diminish arbitrarily fast. In our theoretical analysis, we develop a new self-normalized concentration inequality for IPW estimators, generalizing the well-known empirical Bernstein's inequality to unbounded and non-i.i.d. data.

Distinguishing cause from effect using observations of a pair of random variables is a core problem in causal discovery. Most approaches proposed for this task, namely additive noise models (ANM), are only adequate for quantitative data. We propose a criterion to address the cause-effect problem with categorical variables (living in sets with no meaningful order), inspired by seeing a conditional probability mass function (pmf) as a discrete memoryless channel. We select as the most likely causal direction the one in which the conditional pmf is closer to a uniform channel (UC). The rationale is that, in a UC, as in an ANM, the conditional entropy (of the effect given the cause) is independent of the cause distribution, in agreement with the principle of independence of cause and mechanism. Our approach, which we call the uniform channel model (UCM), thus extends the ANM rationale to categorical variables. To assess how close a conditional pmf (estimated from data) is to a UC, we use statistical testing, supported by a closed-form estimate of a UC channel. On the theoretical front, we prove identifiability of the UCM and show its equivalence with a structural causal model with a low-cardinality exogenous variable. Finally, the proposed method compares favorably with recent state-of-the-art alternatives in experiments on synthetic, benchmark, and real data.

Neural-symbolic AI (NeSy) allows neural networks to exploit symbolic background knowledge in the form of logic. It has been shown to aid learning in the limited data regime and to facilitate inference on out-of-distribution data. Probabilistic NeSy focuses on integrating neural networks with both logic and probability theory, which additionally allows learning under uncertainty. A major limitation of current probabilistic NeSy systems, such as DeepProbLog, is their restriction to finite probability distributions, i.e., discrete random variables. In contrast, deep probabilistic programming (DPP) excels in modelling and optimising continuous probability distributions. Hence, we introduce DeepSeaProbLog, a neural probabilistic logic programming language that incorporates DPP techniques into NeSy. Doing so results in the support of inference and learning of both discrete and continuous probability distributions under logical constraints. Our main contributions are 1) the semantics of DeepSeaProbLog and its corresponding inference algorithm, 2) a proven asymptotically unbiased learning algorithm, and 3) a series of experiments that illustrate the versatility of our approach.

Variational inference is a technique for approximating intractable posterior distributions in order to quantify the uncertainty of machine learning. Although the unimodal Gaussian distribution is usually chosen as a parametric distribution, it hardly approximates the multimodality. In this paper, we employ the Gaussian mixture distribution as a parametric distribution. A main difficulty of variational inference with the Gaussian mixture is how to approximate the entropy of the Gaussian mixture. We approximate the entropy of the Gaussian mixture as the sum of the entropy of the unimodal Gaussian, which can be analytically calculated. In addition, we theoretically analyze the approximation error between the true entropy and approximated one in order to reveal when our approximation works well. Specifically, the approximation error is controlled by the ratios of the distances between the means to the sum of the variances of the Gaussian mixture. Furthermore, it converges to zero when the ratios go to infinity. This situation seems to be more likely to occur in higher dimensional parametric spaces because of the curse of dimensionality. Therefore, our result guarantees that our approximation works well, for example, in neural networks that assume a large number of weights.

The adaptive social learning paradigm helps model how networked agents are able to form opinions on a state of nature and track its drifts in a changing environment. In this framework, the agents repeatedly update their beliefs based on private observations and exchange the beliefs with their neighbors. In this work, it is shown how the sequence of publicly exchanged beliefs over time allows users to discover rich information about the underlying network topology and about the flow of information over the graph. In particular, it is shown that it is possible (i) to identify the influence of each individual agent to the objective of truth learning, (ii) to discover how well-informed each agent is, (iii) to quantify the pairwise influences between agents, and (iv) to learn the underlying network topology. The algorithm derived herein is also able to work under non-stationary environments where either the true state of nature or the graph topology are allowed to drift over time. We apply the proposed algorithm to different subnetworks of Twitter users, and identify the most influential and central agents by using their public tweets (posts).

The prospect of informed and optimal decision-making regarding the operation and maintenance (O&M) of structures provides impetus to the development of structural health monitoring (SHM) systems. A probabilistic risk-based framework for decision-making has already been proposed. However, in order to learn the statistical models necessary for decision-making, measured data from the structure of interest are required. Unfortunately, these data are seldom available across the range of environmental and operational conditions necessary to ensure good generalisation of the model. Recently, technologies have been developed that overcome this challenge, by extending SHM to populations of structures, such that valuable knowledge may be transferred between instances of structures that are sufficiently similar. This new approach is termed population-based structural heath monitoring (PBSHM). The current paper presents a formal representation of populations of structures, such that risk-based decision processes may be specified within them. The population-based representation is an extension to the hierarchical representation of a structure used within the probabilistic risk-based decision framework to define fault trees. The result is a series, consisting of systems of systems ranging from the individual component level up to an inventory of heterogeneous populations. The current paper considers an inventory of wind farms as a motivating example and highlights the inferences and decisions that can be made within the hierarchical representation.

The problem of minimizing finite fuzzy interpretations in fuzzy description logics (FDLs) is worth studying. For example, the structure of a fuzzy/weighted social network can be treated as a fuzzy interpretation in FDLs, where actors are individuals and actions are roles. Minimizing the structure of a fuzzy/weighted social network makes it more compact, thus making network analysis tasks more efficient. In this work, we study the problem of minimizing a finite fuzzy interpretation in a FDL by using the largest crisp auto-bisimulation. The considered FDLs use the Baaz projection operator and their semantics is specified using an abstract algebra of fuzzy truth values, which can be any linear and complete residuated lattice. We provide an efficient algorithm with a complexity of $O((m \log{l} + n) \log{n})$ for minimizing a given finite fuzzy interpretation $\mathcal{I}$, where $n$ is the size of the domain of $\mathcal{I}$, $m$ is number of nonzero instances of atomic roles of $\mathcal{I}$ and $l$ is the number of different fuzzy values used for instances of atomic roles of $\mathcal{I}$. We prove that the fuzzy interpretation returned by the algorithm is minimal among the ones that preserve fuzzy TBoxes and ABoxes under certain conditions.

Data-driven machine learning (ML) is promoted as one potential technology to be used in next-generations wireless systems. This led to a large body of research work that applies ML techniques to solve problems in different layers of the wireless transmission link. However, most of these applications rely on supervised learning which assumes that the source (training) and target (test) data are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d). This assumption is often violated in the real world due to domain or distribution shifts between the source and the target data. Thus, it is important to ensure that these algorithms generalize to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this context, domain generalization (DG) tackles the OOD-related issues by learning models on different and distinct source domains/datasets with generalization capabilities to unseen new domains without additional finetuning. Motivated by the importance of DG requirements for wireless applications, we present a comprehensive overview of the recent developments in DG and the different sources of domain shift. We also summarize the existing DG methods and review their applications in selected wireless communication problems, and conclude with insights and open questions.

Distributed Stein Variational Gradient Descent (DSVGD) is a non-parametric distributed learning framework for federated Bayesian learning, where multiple clients jointly train a machine learning model by communicating a number of non-random and interacting particles with the server. Since communication resources are limited, selecting the clients with most informative local learning updates can improve the model convergence and communication efficiency. In this paper, we propose two selection schemes for DSVGD based on Kernelized Stein Discrepancy (KSD) and Hilbert Inner Product (HIP). We derive the upper bound on the decrease of the global free energy per iteration for both schemes, which is then minimized to speed up the model convergence. We evaluate and compare our schemes with conventional schemes in terms of model accuracy, convergence speed, and stability using various learning tasks and datasets.