The fairness of a deep neural network is strongly affected by dataset bias and spurious correlations, both of which are usually present in modern feature-rich and complex visual datasets. Due to the difficulty and variability of the task, no single de-biasing method has been universally successful. In particular, implicit methods not requiring explicit knowledge of bias variables are especially relevant for real-world applications. We propose a novel implicit mitigation method using a Bayesian neural network, allowing us to leverage the relationship between epistemic uncertainties and the presence of bias or spurious correlations in a sample. Our proposed posterior estimate sharpening procedure encourages the network to focus on core features that do not contribute to high uncertainties. Experimental results on three benchmark datasets demonstrate that Bayesian networks with sharpened posterior estimates perform comparably to prior existing methods and show potential worthy of further exploration.

In the sequential decision making setting, an agent aims to achieve systematic generalization over a large, possibly infinite, set of environments. Such environments are modeled as discrete Markov decision processes with both states and actions represented through a feature vector. The underlying structure of the environments allows the transition dynamics to be factored into two components: one that is environment-specific and another that is shared. Consider a set of environments that share the laws of motion as an example. In this setting, the agent can take a finite amount of reward-free interactions from a subset of these environments. The agent then must be able to approximately solve any planning task defined over any environment in the original set, relying on the above interactions only. Can we design a provably efficient algorithm that achieves this ambitious goal of systematic generalization? In this paper, we give a partially positive answer to this question. First, we provide a tractable formulation of systematic generalization by employing a causal viewpoint. Then, under specific structural assumptions, we provide a simple learning algorithm that guarantees any desired planning error up to an unavoidable sub-optimality term, while showcasing a polynomial sample complexity.

The beekeeping sector has undergone considerable production variations over the past years due to adverse weather conditions, occurring more frequently as climate change progresses. These phenomena can be high-impact and cause the environment to be unfavorable to the bees' activity. We disentangle the honey production drivers with tree-based methods and predict honey production variations for hives in Italy, one of the largest honey producers in Europe. The database covers hundreds of beehive data from 2019-2022 gathered with advanced precision beekeeping techniques. We train and interpret the machine learning models making them prescriptive other than just predictive. Superior predictive performances of tree-based methods compared to standard linear techniques allow for better protection of bees' activity and assess potential losses for beekeepers for risk management.

Meta-learning owns unique effectiveness and swiftness in tackling emerging tasks with limited data. Its broad applicability is revealed by viewing it as a bi-level optimization problem. The resultant algorithmic viewpoint however, faces scalability issues when the inner-level optimization relies on gradient-based iterations. Implicit differentiation has been considered to alleviate this challenge, but it is restricted to an isotropic Gaussian prior, and only favors deterministic meta-learning approaches. This work markedly mitigates the scalability bottleneck by cross-fertilizing the benefits of implicit differentiation to probabilistic Bayesian meta-learning. The novel implicit Bayesian meta-learning (iBaML) method not only broadens the scope of learnable priors, but also quantifies the associated uncertainty. Furthermore, the ultimate complexity is well controlled regardless of the inner-level optimization trajectory. Analytical error bounds are established to demonstrate the precision and efficiency of the generalized implicit gradient over the explicit one. Extensive numerical tests are also carried out to empirically validate the performance of the proposed method.

Inference from limited data requires a notion of measure on parameter space, most explicit in the Bayesian framework as a prior. Here we demonstrate that Jeffreys prior, the best-known uninformative choice, introduces enormous bias when applied to typical scientific models. Such models have a relevant effective dimensionality much smaller than the number of microscopic parameters. Because Jeffreys prior treats all microscopic parameters equally, it is from uniform when projected onto the sub-space of relevant parameters, due to variations in the local co-volume of irrelevant directions. We present results on a principled choice of measure which avoids this issue, leading to unbiased inference in complex models. This optimal prior depends on the quantity of data to be gathered, and approaches Jeffreys prior in the asymptotic limit. However, this limit cannot be justified without an impossibly large amount of data, exponential in the number of microscopic parameters.

Computing observables from conditioned dynamics is typically computationally hard, because, although obtaining independent samples efficiently from the unconditioned dynamics is usually feasible, generally most of the samples must be discarded (in a form of importance sampling) because they do not satisfy the imposed conditions. Sampling directly from the conditioned distribution is non-trivial, as conditioning breaks the causal properties of the dynamics which ultimately renders the sampling procedure efficient. One standard way of achieving it is through a Metropolis Monte-Carlo procedure, but this procedure is normally slow and a very large number of Monte-Carlo steps is needed to obtain a small number of statistically independent samples. In this work, we propose an alternative method to produce independent samples from a conditioned distribution. The method learns the parameters of a generalized dynamical model that optimally describe the conditioned distribution in a variational sense. The outcome is an effective, unconditioned, dynamical model, from which one can trivially obtain independent samples, effectively restoring causality of the conditioned distribution. The consequences are twofold: on the one hand, it allows us to efficiently compute observables from the conditioned dynamics by simply averaging over independent samples. On the other hand, the method gives an effective unconditioned distribution which is easier to interpret. The method is flexible and can be applied virtually to any dynamics. We discuss an important application of the method, namely the problem of epidemic risk assessment from (imperfect) clinical tests, for a large family of time-continuous epidemic models endowed with a Gillespie-like sampler. We show that the method compares favorably against the state of the art, including the soft-margin approach and mean-field methods.

In this paper we derive a Probably Approxilmately Correct(PAC)-Bayesian error bound for linear time-invariant (LTI) stochastic dynamical systems with inputs. Such bounds are widespread in machine learning, and they are useful for characterizing the predictive power of models learned from finitely many data points. In particular, with the bound derived in this paper relates future average prediction errors with the prediction error generated by the model on the data used for learning. In turn, this allows us to provide finite-sample error bounds for a wide class of learning/system identification algorithms. Furthermore, as LTI systems are a sub-class of recurrent neural networks (RNNs), these error bounds could be a first step towards PAC-Bayesian bounds for RNNs.

The mixed multinomial logit model assumes constant preference parameters of a decision-maker throughout different choice situations, which may be considered too strong for certain choice modelling applications. This paper proposes an effective approach to model context-dependent intra-respondent heterogeneity, thereby introducing the concept of the Context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model, where a neural network maps contextual information to interpretable shifts in the preference parameters of each individual in each choice occasion. The proposed model offers several key advantages. First, it supports both continuous and discrete variables, as well as complex non-linear interactions between both types of variables. Secondly, each context specification is considered jointly as a whole by the neural network rather than each variable being considered independently. Finally, since the neural network parameters are shared across all decision-makers, it can leverage information from other decision-makers to infer the effect of a particular context on a particular decision-maker. Even though the context-aware Bayesian mixed multinomial logit model allows for flexible interactions between attributes, the increase in computational complexity is minor, compared to the mixed multinomial logit model. We illustrate the concept and interpretation of the proposed model in a simulation study. We furthermore present a real-world case study from the travel behaviour domain - a bicycle route choice model, based on a large-scale, crowdsourced dataset of GPS trajectories including 119,448 trips made by 8,555 cyclists.

Tree-shaped graphical models are widely used for their tractability. However, they unfortunately lack expressive power as they require committing to a particular sparse dependency structure. We propose a novel class of generative models called mixtures of all trees: that is, a mixture over all possible ($n^{n-2}$) tree-shaped graphical models over $n$ variables. We show that it is possible to parameterize this Mixture of All Trees (MoAT) model compactly (using a polynomial-size representation) in a way that allows for tractable likelihood computation and optimization via stochastic gradient descent. Furthermore, by leveraging the tractability of tree-shaped models, we devise fast-converging conditional sampling algorithms for approximate inference, even though our theoretical analysis suggests that exact computation of marginals in the MoAT model is NP-hard. Empirically, MoAT achieves state-of-the-art performance on density estimation benchmarks when compared against powerful probabilistic models including hidden Chow-Liu Trees.

The process of training feedforward neural networks (FFNNs) can benefit from an automated process where the best heuristic to train the network is sought out automatically by means of a high-level probabilistic-based heuristic. This research introduces a novel population-based Bayesian hyper-heuristic (BHH) that is used to train feedforward neural networks (FFNNs). The performance of the BHH is compared to that of ten popular low-level heuristics, each with different search behaviours. The chosen heuristic pool consists of classic gradient-based heuristics as well as meta-heuristics (MHs). The empirical process is executed on fourteen datasets consisting of classification and regression problems with varying characteristics. The BHH is shown to be able to train FFNNs well and provide an automated method for finding the best heuristic to train the FFNNs at various stages of the training process.