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 Uncertainty


Bayesian Bias Mitigation for Crowdsourcing

Neural Information Processing Systems

Biased labelers are a systemic problem in crowdsourcing, and a comprehensive toolbox for handling their responses is still being developed. A typical crowdsourcing application can be divided into three steps: data collection, data curation, and learning. At present these steps are often treated separately. We present Bayesian Bias Mitigation for Crowdsourcing (BBMC), a Bayesian model to unify all three. Most data curation methods account for the {\it effects} of labeler bias by modeling all labels as coming from a single latent truth.


Probabilistic Modeling of Dependencies Among Visual Short-Term Memory Representations

Neural Information Processing Systems

Extensive evidence suggests that items are not encoded independently in visual short-term memory (VSTM). However, previous research has not quantitatively considered how the encoding of an item influences the encoding of other items. We report the results of an experiment designed to determine the specific form of the stimulus-dependence of the mean and the covariance matrix. We find that the magnitude of the covariance between the representations of two items is a monotonically decreasing function of the difference between the items' feature values, similar to a Gaussian process with a distance-dependent, stationary kernel function. We further show that this type of covariance function can be explained as a natural consequence of encoding multiple stimuli in a population of neurons with correlated responses.


Label Ranking with Partial Abstention based on Thresholded Probabilistic Models

Neural Information Processing Systems

Several machine learning methods allow for abstaining from uncertain predictions. While being common for settings like conventional classification, abstention has been studied much less in learning to rank. We address abstention for the label ranking setting, allowing the learner to declare certain pairs of labels as being incomparable and, thus, to predict partial instead of total orders. In our method, such predictions are produced via thresholding the probabilities of pairwise preferences between labels, as induced by a predicted probability distribution on the set of all rankings. We formally analyze this approach for the Mallows and the Plackett-Luce model, showing that it produces proper partial orders as predictions and characterizing the expressiveness of the induced class of partial orders.


On Lifting the Gibbs Sampling Algorithm

Neural Information Processing Systems

Statistical relational learning models combine the power of first-order logic, the de facto tool for handling relational structure, with that of probabilistic graphical models, the de facto tool for handling uncertainty. Lifted probabilistic inference algorithms for them have been the subject of much recent research. The main idea in these algorithms is to improve the speed, accuracy and scalability of existing graphical models' inference algorithms by exploiting symmetry in the first-order representation. In this paper, we consider blocked Gibbs sampling, an advanced variation of the classic Gibbs sampling algorithm and lift it to the first-order level. We propose to achieve this by partitioning the first-order atoms in the relational model into a set of disjoint clusters such that exact lifted inference is polynomial in each cluster given an assignment to all other atoms not in the cluster.


Efficient coding provides a direct link between prior and likelihood in perceptual Bayesian inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

A common challenge for Bayesian models of perception is the fact that the two fundamental Bayesian components, the prior distribution and the likelihood func- tion, are formally unconstrained. Here we argue that a neural system that emulates Bayesian inference is naturally constrained by the way it represents sensory infor- mation in populations of neurons. More specifically, we show that an efficient coding principle creates a direct link between prior and likelihood based on the underlying stimulus distribution. The resulting Bayesian estimates can show bi- ases away from the peaks of the prior distribution, a behavior seemingly at odds with the traditional view of Bayesian estimation, yet one that has been reported in human perception. We demonstrate that our framework correctly accounts for the repulsive biases previously reported for the perception of visual orientation, and show that the predicted tuning characteristics of the model neurons match the reported orientation tuning properties of neurons in primary visual cortex.


Fast Bayesian Inference for Non-Conjugate Gaussian Process Regression

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a new variational inference algorithm for Gaussian processes with non-conjugate likelihood functions. This includes binary and multi-class classification, as well as ordinal regression. Our method constructs a convex lower bound, which can be optimized by using an efficient fixed point update method. We then show empirically that our new approach is much faster than existing methods without any degradation in performance.


Multilabel Classification using Bayesian Compressed Sensing

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we present a Bayesian framework for multilabel classification using compressed sensing. The key idea in compressed sensing for multilabel classification is to first project the label vector to a lower dimensional space using a random transformation and then learn regression functions over these projections. Our approach considers both of these components in a single probabilistic model, thereby jointly optimizing over compression as well as learning tasks. We then derive an efficient variational inference scheme that provides joint posterior distribution over all the unobserved labels. The two key benefits of the model are that a) it can naturally handle datasets that have missing labels and b) it can also measure uncertainty in prediction.


Random function priors for exchangeable arrays with applications to graphs and relational data

Neural Information Processing Systems

A fundamental problem in the analysis of structured relational data like graphs, networks, databases, and matrices is to extract a summary of the common struc- ture underlying relations between individual entities. Relational data are typically encoded in the form of arrays; invariance to the ordering of rows and columns corresponds to exchangeable arrays. Results in probability theory due to Aldous, Hoover and Kallenberg show that exchangeable arrays can be represented in terms of a random measurable function which constitutes the natural model parameter in a Bayesian model. We obtain a flexible yet simple Bayesian nonparametric model by placing a Gaussian process prior on the parameter function. Efficient inference utilises elliptical slice sampling combined with a random sparse approximation to the Gaussian process.


Affine Independent Variational Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

We present a method for approximate inference for a broad class of non-conjugate probabilistic models. In particular, for the family of generalized linear model target densities we describe a rich class of variational approximating densities which can be best fit to the target by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Our approach is based on using the Fourier representation which we show results in efficient and scalable inference.


Bayesian Warped Gaussian Processes

Neural Information Processing Systems

Warped Gaussian processes (WGP) [1] model output observations in regression tasks as a parametric nonlinear transformation of a Gaussian process (GP). The use of this nonlinear transformation, which is included as part of the probabilistic model, was shown to enhance performance by providing a better prior model on several data sets. In order to learn its parameters, maximum likelihood was used. In this work we show that it is possible to use a non-parametric nonlinear transformation in WGP and variationally integrate it out. The resulting Bayesian WGP is then able to work in scenarios in which the maximum likelihood WGP failed: Low data regime, data with censored values, classification, etc.