There are many settings in which we wish to fit a model of the behavior of individuals but where our data consist only of aggregate information (counts or low-dimensional contingency tables). This paper introduces Collective Graphical Models---a framework for modeling and probabilistic inference that operates directly on the sufficient statistics of the individual model. We derive a highly-efficient Gibbs sampling algorithm for sampling from the posterior distribution of the sufficient statistics conditioned on noisy aggregate observations, prove its correctness, and demonstrate its effectiveness experimentally.

We present a joint image segmentation and labeling model (JSL) which, given a bag of figure-ground segment hypotheses extracted at multiple image locations and scales, constructs a joint probability distribution over both the compatible image interpretations (tilings or image segmentations) composed from those segments, and over their labeling into categories. The process of drawing samples from the joint distribution can be interpreted as first sampling tilings, modeled as maximal cliques, from a graph connecting spatially non-overlapping segments in the bag, followed by sampling labels for those segments, conditioned on the choice of a particular tiling. We learn the segmentation and labeling parameters jointly, based on Maximum Likelihood with a novel Incremental Saddle Point estimation procedure. The partition function over tilings and labelings is increasingly more accurately approximated by including incorrect configurations that a not-yet-competent model rates probable during learning. We show that the proposed methodology matches the current state of the art in the Stanford dataset, as well as in VOC2010, where 41.7% accuracy on the test set is achieved.

We present an asymptotic analysis of Viterbi Training (VT) and contrast it with a more conventional Maximum Likelihood (ML) approach to parameter estimation in Hidden Markov Models. While ML estimator works by (locally) maximizing the likelihood of the observed data, VT seeks to maximize the probability of the most likely hidden state sequence. We develop an analytical framework based on a generating function formalism and illustrate it on an exactly solvable model of HMM with one unambiguous symbol. For this particular model the ML objective function is continuously degenerate. VT objective, in contrast, is shown to have only finite degeneracy.

It has been argued that perceptual multistability reflects probabilistic inference performed by the brain when sensory input is ambiguous. Alternatively, more traditional explanations of multistability refer to low-level mechanisms such as neuronal adaptation. We employ a Deep Boltzmann Machine (DBM) model of cortical processing to demonstrate that these two different approaches can be combined in the same framework. Based on recent developments in machine learning, we show how neuronal adaptation can be understood as a mechanism that improves probabilistic, sampling-based inference. Using the ambiguous Necker cube image, we analyze the perceptual switching exhibited by the model.

When used to learn high dimensional parametric probabilistic models, the clas- sical maximum likelihood (ML) learning often suffers from computational in- tractability, which motivates the active developments of non-ML learning meth- ods. Yet, because of their divergent motivations and forms, the objective func- tions of many non-ML learning methods are seemingly unrelated, and there lacks a unified framework to understand them. In this work, based on an information geometric view of parametric learning, we introduce a general non-ML learning principle termed as minimum KL contraction, where we seek optimal parameters that minimizes the contraction of the KL divergence between the two distributions after they are transformed with a KL contraction operator. We then show that the objective functions of several important or recently developed non-ML learn- ing methods, including contrastive divergence [12], noise-contrastive estimation [11], partial likelihood [7], non-local contrastive objectives [31], score match- ing [14], pseudo-likelihood [3], maximum conditional likelihood [17], maximum mutual information [2], maximum marginal likelihood [9], and conditional and marginal composite likelihood [24], can be unified under the minimum KL con- traction framework with different choices of the KL contraction operators.

Unlike existing nonparametric Bayesian models, which rely solely on specially conceived priors to incorporate domain knowledge for discovering improved latent representations, we study nonparametric Bayesian inference with regularization on the desired posterior distributions. While priors can indirectly affect posterior distributions through Bayes' theorem, imposing posterior regularization is arguably more direct and in some cases can be much easier. We particularly focus on developing infinite latent support vector machines (iLSVM) and multi-task infinite latent support vector machines (MT-iLSVM), which explore the large-margin idea in combination with a nonparametric Bayesian model for discovering predictive latent features for classification and multi-task learning, respectively. We present efficient inference methods and report empirical studies on several benchmark datasets. Our results appear to demonstrate the merits inherited from both large-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics.

Approximate inference is an important technique for dealing with large, intractable graphical models based on the exponential family of distributions. We extend the idea of approximate inference to the t-exponential family by defining a new t-divergence. This divergence measure is obtained via convex duality between the log-partition function of the t-exponential family and a new t-entropy. We illustrate our approach on the Bayes Point Machine with a Student's t-prior.

Probabilistic logics are receiving a lot of attention today because of their expressive power for knowledge representation and learning. However, this expressivity is detrimental to the tractability of inference, when done at the propositional level. To solve this problem, various lifted inference algorithms have been proposed that reason at the first-order level, about groups of objects as a whole. Despite the existence of various lifted inference approaches, there are currently no completeness results about these algorithms. The key contribution of this paper is that we introduce a formal definition of lifted inference that allows us to reason about the completeness of lifted inference algorithms relative to a particular class of probabilistic models. We then show how to obtain a completeness result using a first-order knowledge compilation approach for theories of formulae containing up to two logical variables.

Fitted value iteration (FVI) with ordinary least squares regression is known to diverge. We present a new method, "Expansion-Constrained Ordinary Least Squares" (ECOLS), that produces a linear approximation but also guarantees convergence when used with FVI. To ensure convergence, we constrain the least squares regression operator to be a non-expansion in the infinity-norm. We show that the space of function approximators that satisfy this constraint is more rich than the space of "averagers," we prove a minimax property of the ECOLS residual error, and we give an efficient algorithm for computing the coefficients of ECOLS based on constraint generation. We illustrate the algorithmic convergence of FVI with ECOLS in a suite of experiments, and discuss its properties.

Neurons typically respond to a restricted number of stimulus features within the high-dimensional space of natural stimuli. Here we describe an explicit model-based interpretation of traditional estimators for a neuron's multi-dimensional feature space, which allows for several important generalizations and extensions. First, we show that traditional estimators based on the spike-triggered average (STA) and spike-triggered covariance (STC) can be formalized in terms of the "expected log-likelihood" of a Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson (LNP) model with Gaussian stimuli. This model-based formulation allows us to define maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimators that are statistically consistent and efficient in a wider variety of settings, such as with naturalistic (non-Gaussian) stimuli. It also allows us to employ Bayesian methods for regularization, smoothing, sparsification, and model comparison, and provides Bayesian confidence intervals on model parameters.