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 Uncertainty


Infinite Latent SVM for Classification and Multi-task Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

Unlike existing nonparametric Bayesian models, which rely solely on specially conceived priors to incorporate domain knowledge for discovering improved latent representations, we study nonparametric Bayesian inference with regularization on the desired posterior distributions. While priors can indirectly affect posterior distributions through Bayes' theorem, imposing posterior regularization is arguably more direct and in some cases can be much easier. We particularly focus on developing infinite latent support vector machines (iLSVM) and multi-task infinite latent support vector machines (MT-iLSVM), which explore the large-margin idea in combination with a nonparametric Bayesian model for discovering predictive latent features for classification and multi-task learning, respectively. We present efficient inference methods and report empirical studies on several benchmark datasets. Our results appear to demonstrate the merits inherited from both large-margin learning and Bayesian nonparametrics.


t-divergence Based Approximate Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Approximate inference is an important technique for dealing with large, intractable graphical models based on the exponential family of distributions. We extend the idea of approximate inference to the t-exponential family by defining a new t-divergence. This divergence measure is obtained via convex duality between the log-partition function of the t-exponential family and a new t-entropy. We illustrate our approach on the Bayes Point Machine with a Student's t-prior.


On the Completeness of First-Order Knowledge Compilation for Lifted Probabilistic Inference

Neural Information Processing Systems

Probabilistic logics are receiving a lot of attention today because of their expressive power for knowledge representation and learning. However, this expressivity is detrimental to the tractability of inference, when done at the propositional level. To solve this problem, various lifted inference algorithms have been proposed that reason at the first-order level, about groups of objects as a whole. Despite the existence of various lifted inference approaches, there are currently no completeness results about these algorithms. The key contribution of this paper is that we introduce a formal definition of lifted inference that allows us to reason about the completeness of lifted inference algorithms relative to a particular class of probabilistic models. We then show how to obtain a completeness result using a first-order knowledge compilation approach for theories of formulae containing up to two logical variables.


Convergent Fitted Value Iteration with Linear Function Approximation

Neural Information Processing Systems

Fitted value iteration (FVI) with ordinary least squares regression is known to diverge. We present a new method, "Expansion-Constrained Ordinary Least Squares" (ECOLS), that produces a linear approximation but also guarantees convergence when used with FVI. To ensure convergence, we constrain the least squares regression operator to be a non-expansion in the infinity-norm. We show that the space of function approximators that satisfy this constraint is more rich than the space of "averagers," we prove a minimax property of the ECOLS residual error, and we give an efficient algorithm for computing the coefficients of ECOLS based on constraint generation. We illustrate the algorithmic convergence of FVI with ECOLS in a suite of experiments, and discuss its properties.


Bayesian Spike-Triggered Covariance Analysis

Neural Information Processing Systems

Neurons typically respond to a restricted number of stimulus features within the high-dimensional space of natural stimuli. Here we describe an explicit model-based interpretation of traditional estimators for a neuron's multi-dimensional feature space, which allows for several important generalizations and extensions. First, we show that traditional estimators based on the spike-triggered average (STA) and spike-triggered covariance (STC) can be formalized in terms of the "expected log-likelihood" of a Linear-Nonlinear-Poisson (LNP) model with Gaussian stimuli. This model-based formulation allows us to define maximum-likelihood and Bayesian estimators that are statistically consistent and efficient in a wider variety of settings, such as with naturalistic (non-Gaussian) stimuli. It also allows us to employ Bayesian methods for regularization, smoothing, sparsification, and model comparison, and provides Bayesian confidence intervals on model parameters.


Kernel Bayes' Rule

Neural Information Processing Systems

A nonparametric kernel-based method for realizing Bayes' rule is proposed, based on kernel representations of probabilities in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. The prior and conditional probabilities are expressed as empirical kernel mean and covariance operators, respectively, and the kernel mean of the posterior distribution is computed in the form of a weighted sample. The kernel Bayes' rule can be applied to a wide variety of Bayesian inference problems: we demonstrate Bayesian computation without likelihood, and filtering with a nonparametric state-space model. A consistency rate for the posterior estimate is established.


Sparse Bayesian Multi-Task Learning

Neural Information Processing Systems

We propose a new sparse Bayesian model for multi-task regression and classification. The model is able to capture correlations between tasks, or more specifically a low-rank approximation of the covariance matrix, while being sparse in the features. We introduce a general family of group sparsity inducing priors based on matrix-variate Gaussian scale mixtures. We show the amount of sparsity can be learnt from the data by combining an approximate inference approach with type II maximum likelihood estimation of the hyperparameters. Empirical evaluations on data sets from biology and vision demonstrate the applicability of the model, where on both regression and classification tasks it achieves competitive predictive performance compared to previously proposed methods.


Bayesian Partitioning of Large-Scale Distance Data

Neural Information Processing Systems

A Bayesian approach to partitioning distance matrices is presented. It is inspired by the'Translation-Invariant Wishart-Dirichlet' process (TIWD) in (Vogt et al., 2010) and shares a number of advantageous properties like the fully probabilistic nature of the inference model, automatic selection of the number of clusters and applicability in semi-supervised settings. In addition, our method (which we call'fastTIWD') overcomes the main shortcoming of the original TIWD, namely its high computational costs. The fastTIWD reduces the workload in each iteration of a Gibbs sampler from O(n 3) in the TIWD to O(n 2). Our experiments show that this cost reduction does not compromise the quality of the inferred partitions. With this new method it is now possible to'mine' large relational datasets with a probabilistic model, thereby automatically detecting new and potentially interesting clusters.


Automated Refinement of Bayes Networks' Parameters based on Test Ordering Constraints

Neural Information Processing Systems

In this paper, we derive a method to refine a Bayes network diagnostic model by exploiting constraints implied by expert decisions on test ordering. At each step, the expert executes an evidence gathering test, which suggests the test's relative diagnostic value. We demonstrate that consistency with an expert's test selection leads to non-convex constraints on the model parameters. We incorporate these constraints by augmenting the network with nodes that represent the constraint likelihoods. Gibbs sampling, stochastic hill climbing and greedy search algorithms are proposed to find a MAP estimate that takes into account test ordering constraints and any data available.


Query-Aware MCMC

Neural Information Processing Systems

Traditional approaches to probabilistic inference such as loopy belief propagation and Gibbs sampling typically compute marginals for it all the unobserved variables in a graphical model. However, in many real-world applications the user's interests are focused on a subset of the variables, specified by a query. In this case it would be wasteful to uniformly sample, say, one million variables when the query concerns only ten. In this paper we propose a query-specific approach to MCMC that accounts for the query variables and their generalized mutual information with neighboring variables in order to achieve higher computational efficiency. Surprisingly there has been almost no previous work on query-aware MCMC. We demonstrate the success of our approach with positive experimental results on a wide range of graphical models.