We develop a probabilistic model of human memory performance in free recall experiments. In these experiments, a subject first studies a list of words and then tries to recall them. To model these data, we draw on both previous psychological research and statistical topic models of text documents. We assume that memories are formed by assimilating the semantic meaning of studied words (represented as a distribution over topics) into a slowly changing latent context (represented in the same space). During recall, this context is reinstated and used as a cue for retrieving studied words.

Imaging techniques such as optical imaging of intrinsic signals, 2-photon calcium imaging and voltage sensitive dye imaging can be used to measure the functional organization of visual cortex across different spatial scales. Here, we present Bayesian methods based on Gaussian processes for extracting topographic maps from functional imaging data. In particular, we focus on the estimation of orientation preference maps (OPMs) from intrinsic signal imaging data. We model the underlying map as a bivariate Gaussian process, with a prior covariance function that reflects known properties of OPMs, and a noise covariance adjusted to the data. The posterior mean can be interpreted as an optimally smoothed estimate of the map, and can be used for model based interpolations of the map from sparse measurements.

Existing value function approximation methods have been successfully used in many applications, but they often lack useful a priori error bounds. We propose approximate bilinear programming, a new formulation of value function approximation that provides strong a priori guarantees. In particular, it provably finds an approximate value function that minimizes the Bellman residual. Solving a bilinear program optimally is NP hard, but this is unavoidable because the Bellman-residual minimization itself is NP hard. We, therefore, employ and analyze a common approximate algorithm for bilinear programs.

Multiple object tracking is a task commonly used to investigate the architecture of human visual attention. Human participants show a distinctive pattern of successes and failures in tracking experiments that is often attributed to limits on an object system, a tracking module, or other specialized cognitive structures. Here we use a computational analysis of the task of object tracking to ask which human failures arise from cognitive limitations and which are consequences of inevitable perceptual uncertainty in the tracking task. We find that many human performance phenomena, measured through novel behavioral experiments, are naturally produced by the operation of our ideal observer model (a Rao-Blackwelized particle filter). The tradeoff between the speed and number of objects being tracked, however, can only arise from the allocation of a flexible cognitive resource, which can be formalized as either memory or attention.

We consider the general problem of constructing nonparametric Bayesian models on infinite-dimensional random objects, such as functions, infinite graphs or infinite permutations. The problem has generated much interest in machine learning, where it is treated heuristically, but has not been studied in full generality in nonparametric Bayesian statistics, which tends to focus on models over probability distributions. Our approach applies a standard tool of stochastic process theory, the construction of stochastic processes from their finite-dimensional marginal distributions. The main contribution of the paper is a generalization of the classic Kolmogorov extension theorem to conditional probabilities. This extension allows a rigorous construction of nonparametric Bayesian models from systems of finite-dimensional, parametric Bayes equations.

There is a growing body of experimental evidence to suggest that the brain is capable of approximating optimal Bayesian inference in the face of noisy input stimuli. Despite this progress, the neural underpinnings of this computation are still poorly understood. In this paper we focus on the problem of Bayesian filtering of stochastic time series. In particular we introduce a novel neural network, derived from a line attractor architecture, whose dynamics map directly onto those of the Kalman Filter in the limit where the prediction error is small. When the prediction error is large we show that the network responds robustly to change-points in a way that is qualitatively compatible with the optimal Bayesian model.

Everyday social interactions are heavily influenced by our snap judgments about others goals. Even young infants can infer the goals of intentional agents from observing how they interact with objects and other agents in their environment: e.g., that one agent is helping orhindering anothers attempt to get up a hill or open a box. We propose a model for how people can infer these social goals from actions, based on inverse planning in multiagent Markov decision problems (MDPs). The model infers the goal most likely to be driving an agents behavior by assuming the agent acts approximately rationally given environmental constraints and its model of other agents present.

Over recent years Dirichlet processes and the associated Chinese restaurant process (CRP) have found many applications in clustering while the Indian buffet process (IBP) is increasingly used to describe latent feature models. In the clustering case, we associate to each data point a latent allocation variable. These latent variables can share the same value and this induces a partition of the data set. The CRP is a prior distribution on such partitions. In latent feature models, we associate to each data point a potentially infinite number of binary latent variables indicating the possession of some features and the IBP is a prior distribution on the associated infinite binary matrix.

We present a general Bayesian approach to probabilistic matrix factorization subject to linear constraints. The approach is based on a Gaussian observation model and Gaussian priors with bilinear equality and inequality constraints. We present an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo inference procedure based on Gibbs sampling. Special cases of the proposed model are Bayesian formulations of non-negative matrix factorization and factor analysis. The method is evaluated on a blind source separation problem.

Situations in which people with opposing prior beliefs observe the same evidence and then strengthen those existing beliefs are frequently offered as evidence of human irrationality. This phenomenon, termed belief polarization, is typically assumed to be non-normative. We demonstrate, however, that a variety of cases of belief polarization are consistent with a Bayesian approach to belief revision. Simulation results indicate that belief polarization is not only possible but relatively common within the class of Bayesian models that we consider.