Although theorists have interpreted classical conditioning as a laboratory model of Bayesian belief updating, a recent reanalysis showed that the key features that theoretical models capture about learning are artifacts of averaging over subjects. Rather than learning smoothly to asymptote (reflecting, according to Bayesian models, the gradual tradeoff from prior to posterior as data accumulate), subjects learn suddenly and their predictions fluctuate perpetually. We suggest that abrupt and unstable learning can be modeled by assuming subjects are conducting in- ference using sequential Monte Carlo sampling with a small number of samples -- one, in our simulations. Ensemble behavior resembles exact Bayesian models since, as in particle filters, it averages over many samples. Further, the model is capable of exhibiting sophisticated behaviors like retrospective revaluation at the ensemble level, even given minimally sophisticated individuals that do not track uncertainty in their beliefs over trials.

A general modeling framework is proposed that unifies nonparametric-Bayesian models, topic-models and Bayesian networks. This class of infinite state Bayes nets (ISBN) can be viewed as directed networks of'hierarchical Dirichlet processes' (HDPs) where the domain of the variables can be structured (e.g. Existing models, such as nested-DP, Pachinko allocation, mixed membership sto- chastic block models as well as a number of new models are described as ISBNs. Two experiments have been performed to illustrate these ideas.

For infants, early word learning is a chicken-and-egg problem. One way to learn a word is to observe that it co-occurs with a particular referent across different situations. Another way is to use the social context of an utterance to infer the in- tended referent of a word. Here we present a Bayesian model of cross-situational word learning, and an extension of this model that also learns which social cues are relevant to determining reference. We test our model on a small corpus of mother-infant interaction and find it performs better than competing models. Fi- nally, we show that our model accounts for experimental phenomena including mutual exclusivity, fast-mapping, and generalization from social cues.

The learning of probabilistic models with many hidden variables and non- decomposable dependencies is an important and challenging problem. In contrast to traditional approaches based on approximate inference in a single intractable model, our approach is to train a set of tractable submodels by encouraging them to agree on the hidden variables. This allows us to capture non-decomposable aspects of the data while still maintaining tractability. We propose an objective function for our approach, derive EM-style algorithms for parameter estimation, and demonstrate their effectiveness on three challenging real-world learning tasks.

A method is proposed for semiparametric estimation where parametric and non- parametric criteria are exploited in density estimation and unsupervised learning. This is accomplished by making sampling assumptions on a dataset that smoothly interpolate between the extreme of independently distributed (or id) sample data (as in nonparametric kernel density estimators) to the extreme of independent identically distributed (or iid) sample data. This article makes independent simi- larly distributed (or isd) sampling assumptions and interpolates between these two using a scalar parameter. The parameter controls a Bhattacharyya affinity penalty between pairs of distributions on samples. Surprisingly, the isd method maintains certain consistency and unimodality properties akin to maximum likelihood esti- mation.

Bayesian models of multisensory perception traditionally address the problem of estimating an underlying variable that is assumed to be the cause of the two sen- sory signals. The brain, however, has to solve a more general problem: it also has to establish which signals come from the same source and should be integrated, and which ones do not and should be segregated. In the last couple of years, a few models have been proposed to solve this problem in a Bayesian fashion. One of these has the strength that it formalizes the causal structure of sensory signals. We first compare these models on a formal level.

The present work aims to model the correspondence between facial motion and speech. The face and sound are modelled separately, with phonemes being the link between both. We propose a sequential model and evaluate its suitability for the generation of the facial animation from a sequence of phonemes, which we obtain from speech. We evaluate the results both by computing the error between generated sequences and real video, as well as with a rigorous double-blind test with human subjects. Experiments show that our model compares favourably to other existing methods and that the sequences generated are comparable to real video sequences.

When training and test samples follow different input distributions (i.e., the situation called \emph{covariate shift}), the maximum likelihood estimator is known to lose its consistency. For regaining consistency, the log-likelihood terms need to be weighted according to the \emph{importance} (i.e., the ratio of test and training input densities). Thus, accurately estimating the importance is one of the key tasks in covariate shift adaptation. A naive approach is to first estimate training and test input densities and then estimate the importance by the ratio of the density estimates. However, since density estimation is a hard problem, this approach tends to perform poorly especially in high dimensional cases. In this paper, we propose a direct importance estimation method that does not require the input density estimates.

In order to represent state in controlled, partially observable, stochastic dynamical systems, some sort of sufficient statistic for history is necessary. Predictive repre- sentations of state (PSRs) capture state as statistics of the future. We introduce a new model of such systems called the "Exponential family PSR," which defines as state the time-varying parameters of an exponential family distribution which models n sequential observations in the future. This choice of state representation explicitly connects PSRs to state-of-the-art probabilistic modeling, which allows us to take advantage of current efforts in high-dimensional density estimation, and in particular, graphical models and maximum entropy models. We present a pa- rameter learning algorithm based on maximum likelihood, and we show how a variety of current approximate inference methods apply.

Sound localization by barn owls is commonly modeled as a matching procedure where localization cues derived from auditory inputs are compared to stored templates. While the matching models can explain properties of neural responses, no model explains how the owl resolves spatial ambiguity in the localization cues to produce accurate localization near the center of gaze. Here, we examine two models for the barn owl's sound localization behavior. First, we consider a maximum likelihood estimator in order to further evaluate the cue matching model. Second, we consider a maximum a posteriori estimator to test if a Bayesian model with a prior that emphasizes directions near the center of gaze can reproduce the owl's localization behavior.