Uncertainty
Simplifying Mixture Models through Function Approximation
Finite mixture model is a powerful tool in many statistical learning problems. In this paper, we propose a general, structure-preserving approach to reduce its model complexity, which can bring significant computational benefits in many applications. The basic idea is to group the original mixture components into compact clusters, and then minimize an upper bound on the approximation error between the original and simplified models. By adopting the L2 norm as the dis- tance measure between mixture models, we can derive closed-form solutions that are more robust and reliable than using the KL-based distance measure. Moreover, the complexity of our algorithm is only linear in the sample size and dimensional- ity.
A Novel Gaussian Sum Smoother for Approximate Inference in Switching Linear Dynamical Systems
We introduce a method for approximate smoothed inference in a class of switching linear dynamical systems, based on a novel form of Gaussian Sum smoother. This class includes the switching Kalman Filter and the more general case of switch transitions dependent on the continuous latent state. The method improves on the standard Kim smoothing approach by dispensing with one of the key approximations, thus making fuller use of the available future information. Whilst the only central assumption required is projection to a mixture of Gaussians, we show that an additional conditional independence assumption results in a simpler but stable and accurate alternative. Unlike the alternative unstable Expectation Propagation procedure, our method consists only of a single forward and backward pass and is reminiscent of the standard smoothing correction' recursions in the simpler linear dynamical system.
An EM Algorithm for Localizing Multiple Sound Sources in Reverberant Environments
We present a method for localizing and separating sound sources in stereo recordings that is robust to reverberation and does not make any assumptions about the source statistics. The method consists of a probabilistic model of binaural multisource recordings and an expectation maximization algorithm for finding the maximum likelihood parameters of that model. These parameters include distributions over delays and assignments of time-frequency regions to sources. We evaluate this method against two comparable algorithms on simulations of simultaneous speech from two or three sources. Our method outperforms the others in anechoic conditions and performs as well as the better of the two in the presence of reverberation.
Parameter Expanded Variational Bayesian Methods
Bayesian inference has become increasingly important in statistical machine learning. Exact Bayesian calculations are often not feasible in practice, however. A number of approximate Bayesian methods have been proposed to make such calculations practical, among them the variational Bayesian (VB) approach. The VB approach, while useful, can nevertheless suffer from slow convergence to the approximate solution. To address this problem, we propose Parameter-eXpanded Variational Bayesian (PX-VB) methods to speed up VB.
Context Effects in Category Learning: An Investigation of Four Probabilistic Models
Categorization is a central activity of human cognition. When an individual is asked to categorize a sequence of items, context effects arise: categorization of one item influences category decisions for subsequent items. Specifically, when experimental subjects are shown an exemplar of some target category, the category prototype appears to be pulled toward the exemplar, and the prototypes of all nontarget categories appear to be pushed away. These push and pull effects diminish with experience, and likely reflect long-term learning of category boundaries. We propose and evaluate four principled probabilistic (Bayesian) accounts of context effects in categorization.
Approximate inference using planar graph decomposition
A number of exact and approximate methods are available for inference calculations in graphical models. Many recent approximate methods for graphs with cycles are based on tractable algorithms for tree structured graphs. Here we base the approximation on a different tractable model, planar graphs with binary variables and pure interaction potentials (no external field). The partition function for such models can be calculated exactly using an algorithm introduced by Fisher and Kasteleyn in the 1960s. We show how such tractable planar models can be used in a decomposition to derive upper bounds on the partition function of non-planar models.
Learning Time-Intensity Profiles of Human Activity using Non-Parametric Bayesian Models
Data sets that characterize human activity over time through collections of timestamped events or counts are of increasing interest in application areas as humancomputer interaction, video surveillance, and Web data analysis. We propose a non-parametric Bayesian framework for modeling collections of such data. In particular, we use a Dirichlet process framework for learning a set of intensity functions corresponding to different categories, which form a basis set for representing individual time-periods (e.g., several days) depending on which categories the time-periods are assigned to. This allows the model to learn in a data-driven fashion what "factors" are generating the observations on a particular day, including (for example) weekday versus weekend effects or day-specific effects corresponding to unique (single-day) occurrences of unusual behavior, sharing information where appropriate to obtain improved estimates of the behavior associated with each category. Applications to realworld data sets of count data involving both vehicles and people are used to illustrate the technique.
Adaptor Grammars: A Framework for Specifying Compositional Nonparametric Bayesian Models
This paper introduces adaptor grammars, a class of probabilistic models of lan- guage that generalize probabilistic context-free grammars (PCFGs). Adaptor grammars augment the probabilistic rules of PCFGs with "adaptors" that can in- duce dependencies among successive uses. With a particular choice of adaptor, based on the Pitman-Yor process, nonparametric Bayesian models of language using Dirichlet processes and hierarchical Dirichlet processes can be written as simple grammars. We present a general-purpose inference algorithm for adaptor grammars, making it easy to define and use such models, and illustrate how several existing nonparametric Bayesian models can be expressed within this framework.
A Collapsed Variational Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Latent Dirichlet Allocation
Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) is a Bayesian network that has recently gained much popularity in applications ranging from document modeling to computer vision. Due to the large scale nature of these applications, current inference pro- cedures like variational Bayes and Gibbs sampling have been found lacking. In this paper we propose the collapsed variational Bayesian inference algorithm for LDA, and show that it is computationally efficient, easy to implement and signifi- cantly more accurate than standard variational Bayesian inference for LDA.
Stratification Learning: Detecting Mixed Density and Dimensionality in High Dimensional Point Clouds
The study of point cloud data sampled from a stratification, a collection of manifolds with possible different dimensions, is pursued in this paper. We present a technique for simultaneously soft clustering and estimating the mixed dimensionality and density of such structures. The framework is based on a maximum likelihood estimation of a Poisson mixture model. The presentation of the approach is completed with artificial and real examples demonstrating the importance of extending manifold learning to stratification learning.