The misjudgement of tilt in images lies at the heart of entertaining visual illusions and rigorous perceptual psychophysics. A wealth of findings has attracted many mechanistic models, but few clear computational principles. We adopt a Bayesian approach to perceptual tilt estimation, showing how a smoothness prior offers a powerful way of addressing much confusing data. In particular, we faithfully model recent results showing that confidence in estimation can be systematically affected by the same aspects of images that affect bias. Confidence is central to Bayesian modeling approaches, and is applicable in many other perceptual domains. Perceptual anomalies and illusions, such as the misjudgements of motion and tilt evident in so many psychophysical experiments, have intrigued researchers for decades.13

The classical Bayes rule computes the posterior model probability from the prior probability and the data likelihood. We generalize this rule to the case when the prior is a density matrix (symmetric positive definite and trace one) and the data likelihood a covariance matrix. The classical Bayes rule is retained as the special case when the matrices are diagonal. In the classical setting, the calculation of the probability of the data is an expected likelihood, where the expectation is over the prior distribution. In the generalized setting, this is replaced by an expected variance calculation where the variance is computed along the eigenvectors of the prior density matrix and the expectation is over the eigenvalues of the density matrix (which form a probability vector).

We investigate the problem of automatically constructing efficient rep- resentations or basis functions for approximating value functions based on analyzing the structure and topology of the state space. In particu- lar, two novel approaches to value function approximation are explored based on automatically constructing basis functions on state spaces that can be represented as graphs or manifolds: one approach uses the eigen- functions of the Laplacian, in effect performing a global Fourier analysis on the graph; the second approach is based on diffusion wavelets, which generalize classical wavelets to graphs using multiscale dilations induced by powers of a diffusion operator or random walk on the graph. Together, these approaches form the foundation of a new generation of methods for solving large Markov decision processes, in which the underlying repre- sentation and policies are simultaneously learned.

Despite all the attention paid to variational methods based on sum-product message passing (loopy belief propagation, tree-reweighted sum-product), these methods are still bound to inference on a small set of probabilistic models. Mean field approximations have been applied to a broader set of problems, but the solutions are often poor. We propose a new class of conditionally-specified variational approximations based on mean field theory. While not usable on their own, combined with sequential Monte Carlo they produce guaranteed improvements over conventional mean field. Moreover, experiments on a well-studied problem-- inferring the stable configurations of the Ising spin glass--show that the solutions can be significantly better than those obtained using sum-product-based methods.

The ill-posed nature of the MEG/EEG source localization problem requires the incorporation of prior assumptions when choosing an appropriate solution out of an infinite set of candidates. Bayesian methods are useful in this capacity because they allow these assumptions to be explicitly quantified. Recently, a number of empirical Bayesian approaches have been proposed that attempt a form of model selection by using the data to guide the search for an appropriate prior. While seemingly quite different in many respects, we apply a unifying framework based on automatic relevance determination (ARD) that elucidates various attributes of these methods and suggests directions for improvement. We also derive theoretical properties of this methodology related to convergence, local minima, and localization bias and explore connections with established algorithms.

Finite mixture model is a powerful tool in many statistical learning problems. In this paper, we propose a general, structure-preserving approach to reduce its model complexity, which can bring significant computational benefits in many applications. The basic idea is to group the original mixture components into compact clusters, and then minimize an upper bound on the approximation error between the original and simplified models. By adopting the L2 norm as the dis- tance measure between mixture models, we can derive closed-form solutions that are more robust and reliable than using the KL-based distance measure. Moreover, the complexity of our algorithm is only linear in the sample size and dimensional- ity.

We introduce a method for approximate smoothed inference in a class of switching linear dynamical systems, based on a novel form of Gaussian Sum smoother. This class includes the switching Kalman Filter and the more general case of switch transitions dependent on the continuous latent state. The method improves on the standard Kim smoothing approach by dispensing with one of the key approximations, thus making fuller use of the available future information. Whilst the only central assumption required is projection to a mixture of Gaussians, we show that an additional conditional independence assumption results in a simpler but stable and accurate alternative. Unlike the alternative unstable Expectation Propagation procedure, our method consists only of a single forward and backward pass and is reminiscent of the standard smoothing correction' recursions in the simpler linear dynamical system.

We present a method for localizing and separating sound sources in stereo recordings that is robust to reverberation and does not make any assumptions about the source statistics. The method consists of a probabilistic model of binaural multisource recordings and an expectation maximization algorithm for finding the maximum likelihood parameters of that model. These parameters include distributions over delays and assignments of time-frequency regions to sources. We evaluate this method against two comparable algorithms on simulations of simultaneous speech from two or three sources. Our method outperforms the others in anechoic conditions and performs as well as the better of the two in the presence of reverberation.

Bayesian inference has become increasingly important in statistical machine learning. Exact Bayesian calculations are often not feasible in practice, however. A number of approximate Bayesian methods have been proposed to make such calculations practical, among them the variational Bayesian (VB) approach. The VB approach, while useful, can nevertheless suffer from slow convergence to the approximate solution. To address this problem, we propose Parameter-eXpanded Variational Bayesian (PX-VB) methods to speed up VB.

Categorization is a central activity of human cognition. When an individual is asked to categorize a sequence of items, context effects arise: categorization of one item influences category decisions for subsequent items. Specifically, when experimental subjects are shown an exemplar of some target category, the category prototype appears to be pulled toward the exemplar, and the prototypes of all nontarget categories appear to be pushed away. These push and pull effects diminish with experience, and likely reflect long-term learning of category boundaries. We propose and evaluate four principled probabilistic (Bayesian) accounts of context effects in categorization.