We present a Bayesian framework for explaining how people reason about and predict the actions of an intentional agent, based on observ- ing its behavior. Action-understanding is cast as a problem of inverting a probabilistic generative model, which assumes that agents tend to act rationally in order to achieve their goals given the constraints of their en- vironment. Working in a simple sprite-world domain, we show how this model can be used to infer the goal of an agent and predict how the agent will act in novel situations or when environmental constraints change. The model provides a qualitative account of several kinds of inferences that preverbal infants have been shown to perform, and also fits quantita- tive predictions that adult observers make in a new experiment.

Humans are extremely adept at learning new skills by imitating the actions of others. A progression of imitative abilities has been observed in children, ranging from imitation of simple body movements to goalbased imitation based on inferring intent. In this paper, we show that the problem of goal-based imitation can be formulated as one of inferring goals and selecting actions using a learned probabilistic graphical model of the environment. We first describe algorithms for planning actions to achieve a goal state using probabilistic inference. We then describe how planning can be used to bootstrap the learning of goal-dependent policies by utilizing feedback from the environment.

We measure the ability of human observers to predict the next datum in a sequence that is generated by a simple statistical process undergoing change at random points in time. Accurate performance in this task requires the identification of changepoints. We assess individual differences between observers both empirically, and using two kinds of models: a Bayesian approach for change detection and a family of cognitively plausible fast and frugal models. Some individuals detect too many changes and hence perform sub-optimally due to excess variability. Other individuals do not detect enough changes, and perform sub-optimally because they fail to notice short-term temporal trends.

We extend a previously developed Bayesian framework for perception to account for sensory adaptation. We first note that the perceptual ef- fects of adaptation seems inconsistent with an adjustment of the inter- nally represented prior distribution. Instead, we postulate that adaptation increases the signal-to-noise ratio of the measurements by adapting the operational range of the measurement stage to the input range. We show that this changes the likelihood function in such a way that the Bayesian estimator model can account for reported perceptual behavior. In particu- lar, we compare the model's predictions to human motion discrimination data and demonstrate that the model accounts for the commonly observed perceptual adaptation effects of repulsion and enhanced discriminability.

There have been many graph-based approaches for semi-supervised clas- sification. One problem is that of hyperparameter learning: performance depends greatly on the hyperparameters of the similarity graph, trans- formation of the graph Laplacian and the noise model. We present a Bayesian framework for learning hyperparameters for graph-based semi- supervised classification. Given some labeled data, which can contain inaccurate labels, we pose the semi-supervised classification as an in- ference problem over the unknown labels. Expectation Propagation is used for approximate inference and the mean of the posterior is used for classification.

The Variational Bayesian framework has been widely used to approximate the Bayesian learning. In various applications, it has provided computational tractability and good generalization performance. In this paper, we discuss the Variational Bayesian learning of the mixture of exponential families and provide some additional theoretical support by deriving the asymptotic form of the stochastic complexity. The stochastic complexity, which corresponds to the minimum free energy and a lower bound of the marginal likelihood, is a key quantity for model selection. It also enables us to discuss the effect of hyperparameters and the accuracy of the Variational Bayesian approach as an approximation of the true Bayesian learning.

We show that linear generalizations of Rescorla-Wagner can perform Maximum Likelihood estimation of the parameters of all generative models for causal reasoning. Our approach involves augmenting variables to deal with conjunctions of causes, similar to the agumented model of Rescorla. Our results involve genericity assumptions on the distributions of causes. If these assumptions are violated, for example for the Cheng causal power theory, then we show that a linear Rescorla-Wagner can estimate the parameters of the model up to a nonlinear transformtion. Moreover, a nonlinear Rescorla-Wagner is able to estimate the parameters directly to within arbitrary accuracy.

The problem of computing a resample estimate for the reconstruction error in PCA is reformulated as an inference problem with the help of the replica method. Using the expectation consistent (EC) approximation, the intractable inference problem can be solved efficiently using only two variational parameters. A perturbative correction to the result is computed and an alternative simplified derivation is also presented.

We study the problem of maximum entropy density estimation in the presence of known sample selection bias. We propose three bias cor- rection approaches. The first one takes advantage of unbiased sufficient statistics which can be obtained from biased samples. The second one es- timates the biased distribution and then factors the bias out. The third one approximates the second by only using samples from the sampling distri- bution.

Humans make optimal perceptual decisions in noisy and ambiguous conditions. Computations underlying such optimal behavior have been shown to rely on probabilistic inference according to generative models whose structure is usually taken to be known a priori. We argue that Bayesian model selection is ideal for inferring similar and even more complex model structures from experience. We find in experiments that humans learn subtle statistical properties of visual scenes in a completely unsupervised manner. We show that these findings are well captured by Bayesian model learning within a class of models that seek to explain observed variables by independent hidden causes.