Log-concavity is an important property in the context of optimization, Laplace approximation, and sampling; Bayesian methods based on Gaus- sian process priors have become quite popular recently for classification, regression, density estimation, and point process intensity estimation. Here we prove that the predictive densities corresponding to each of these applications are log-concave, given any observed data. We also prove that the likelihood is log-concave in the hyperparameters controlling the mean function of the Gaussian prior in the density and point process in- tensity estimation cases, and the mean, covariance, and observation noise parameters in the classification and regression cases; this result leads to a useful parameterization of these hyperparameters, indicating a suitably large class of priors for which the corresponding maximum a posteriori problem is log-concave.

We propose a new method for estimating intrinsic dimension of a dataset derived by applying the principle of maximum likelihood to the distances between close neighbors. We derive the estimator by a Poisson process approximation, assess its bias and variance theo- retically and by simulations, and apply it to a number of simulated and real datasets. We also show it has the best overall performance compared with two other intrinsic dimension estimators.

Choice-based conjoint analysis builds models of consumer preferences over products with answers gathered in questionnaires. Our main goal is to bring tools from the machine learning community to solve this prob- lem more efficiently. Thus, we propose two algorithms to quickly and accurately estimate consumer preferences. Conjoint analysis (also called trade-off analysis) is one of the most popular marketing re- search technique used to determine which features a new product should have, by conjointly measuring consumers trade-offs between discretized1 attributes. In this paper, we will fo- cus on the choice-based conjoint analysis (CBC) framework [11] since it is both widely used and realistic: at each question in the survey, the consumer is asked to choose one product from several.

We present a novel method for learning with Gaussian process regres- sion in a hierarchical Bayesian framework. In a first step, kernel matri- ces on a fixed set of input points are learned from data using a simple and efficient EM algorithm. This step is nonparametric, in that it does not require a parametric form of covariance function. In a second step, kernel functions are fitted to approximate the learned covariance matrix using a generalized Nystrom method, which results in a complex, data driven kernel. We evaluate our approach as a recommendation engine for art images, where the proposed hierarchical Bayesian method leads to excellent prediction performance.

A new distance measure between probability density functions (pdfs) is introduced, which we refer to as the Laplacian pdf dis- tance. The Laplacian pdf distance exhibits a remarkable connec- tion to Mercer kernel based learning theory via the Parzen window technique for density estimation. In a kernel feature space defined by the eigenspectrum of the Laplacian data matrix, this pdf dis- tance is shown to measure the cosine of the angle between cluster mean vectors. The Laplacian data matrix, and hence its eigenspec- trum, can be obtained automatically based on the data at hand, by optimal Parzen window selection. We show that the Laplacian pdf distance has an interesting interpretation as a risk function connected to the probability of error.

There is growing evidence from psychophysical and neurophysiological studies that the brain utilizes Bayesian principles for inference and de- cision making. An important open question is how Bayesian inference for arbitrary graphical models can be implemented in networks of spik- ing neurons. In this paper, we show that recurrent networks of noisy integrate-and-fire neurons can perform approximate Bayesian inference for dynamic and hierarchical graphical models. The membrane potential dynamics of neurons is used to implement belief propagation in the log domain. The spiking probability of a neuron is shown to approximate the posterior probability of the preferred state encoded by the neuron, given past inputs.

We propose a novel a framework for deriving approximations for in- tractable probabilistic models. This framework is based on a free energy (negative log marginal likelihood) and can be seen as a generalization of adaptive TAP [1, 2, 3] and expectation propagation (EP) [4, 5]. The free energy is constructed from two approximating distributions which encode different aspects of the intractable model such a single node con- straints and couplings and are by construction consistent on a chosen set of moments. We test the framework on a difficult benchmark problem with binary variables on fully connected graphs and 2D grid graphs. We find good performance using sets of moments which either specify fac- torized nodes or a spanning tree on the nodes (structured approximation).

We present a discriminative part-based approach for the recognition of object classes from unsegmented cluttered scenes. Objects are modeled as flexible constellations of parts conditioned on local observations found by an interest operator. For each object class the probability of a given assignment of parts to local features is modeled by a Conditional Ran- dom Field (CRF). We propose an extension of the CRF framework that incorporates hidden variables and combines class conditional CRFs into a unified framework for part-based object recognition. The parameters of the CRF are estimated in a maximum likelihood framework and recogni- tion proceeds by finding the most likely class under our model.

In this paper we propose a probabilistic model for online document clus- tering. We use non-parametric Dirichlet process prior to model the grow- ing number of clusters, and use a prior of general English language model as the base distribution to handle the generation of novel clusters. Furthermore, cluster uncertainty is modeled with a Bayesian Dirichlet- multinomial distribution. We use empirical Bayes method to estimate hyperparameters based on a historical dataset. Our probabilistic model is applied to the novelty detection task in Topic Detection and Tracking (TDT) and compared with existing approaches in the literature.

We discuss a method for obtaining a subject's a priori beliefs from his/her behavior in a psychophysics context, under the assumption that the behavior is (nearly) optimal from a Bayesian perspective. The method is nonparametric in the sense that we do not assume that the prior belongs to any fixed class of distributions (e.g., Gaussian). Despite this increased generality, the method is relatively simple to implement, being based in the simplest case on a linear programming algorithm, and more generally on a straightforward maximum likelihood or maximum a posteriori formulation, which turns out to be a convex optimization problem (with no non-global local maxima) in many important cases. In addition, we develop methods for analyzing the uncertainty of these esti- mates. We demonstrate the accuracy of the method in a simple simulated coin-flipping setting; in particular, the method is able to precisely track the evolution of the subject's posterior distribution as more and more data are observed.