We present a new method for calculating approximate marginals for probability distributions defined by graphs with cycles, based on a Gaus- sian entropy bound combined with a semidefinite outer bound on the marginal polytope. This combination leads to a log-determinant max- imization problem that can be solved by efficient interior point meth- ods [8]. As with the Bethe approximation and its generalizations [12], the optimizing arguments of this problem can be taken as approximations to the exact marginals. In contrast to Bethe/Kikuchi approaches, our vari- ational problem is strictly convex and so has a unique global optimum. An additional desirable feature is that the value of the optimal solution is guaranteed to provide an upper bound on the log partition function.

Belief propagation on cyclic graphs is an efficient algorithm for comput- ing approximate marginal probability distributions over single nodes and neighboring nodes in the graph. In this paper we propose two new al- gorithms for approximating joint probabilities of arbitrary pairs of nodes and prove a number of desirable properties that these estimates fulfill. The first algorithm is a propagation algorithm which is shown to con- verge if belief propagation converges to a stable fixed point. The second algorithm is based on matrix inversion. Experiments compare a number of competing methods.

We consider the situation in semi-supervised learning, where the "label sampling" mechanism stochastically depends on the true response (as well as potentially on the features). We suggest a method of moments for estimating this stochastic dependence using the unlabeled data. This is potentially useful for two distinct purposes: a. As an input to a super- vised learning procedure which can be used to "de-bias" its results using labeled data only and b. We present several examples to illustrate the practical usefulness of our method.

We present an unsupervised algorithm for registering 3D surface scans of an object undergoing significant deformations. Our algorithm does not need markers, nor does it assume prior knowledge about object shape, the dynamics of its deformation, or scan alignment. This model enforces preservation of local mesh geometry, as well as more global constraints that capture the preservation of geodesic distance between corresponding point pairs. The algorithm applies even when one of the meshes is an incomplete range scan; thus, it can be used to automatically fill in the remaining sur- faces for this partial scan, even if those surfaces were previously only seen in a different configuration. We evaluate the algorithm on several real-world datasets, where we demonstrate good results in the presence of significant movement of articulated parts and non-rigid surface defor- mation. Finally, we show that the output of the algorithm can be used for compelling computer graphics tasks such as interpolation between two scans of a non-rigid object and automatic recovery of articulated object models. The construction of 3D object models is a key task for many graphics applications.

We use to denote the entire set of model parameters {a,b}a,b {S}. An instantiation of our probabilistic model is illustrated in Figure 1(b).

A generative probabilistic model for objects in images is presented. An object consists of a constellation of features. Feature appearance and pose are modeled probabilistically. Scene images are generated by draw- ing a set of objects from a given database, with random clutter sprinkled on the remaining image surface. We study the case where features from the same object share a common reference frame. Moreover, parameters for shape and appearance den- sities are shared across features.

We propose a new interpretation of spiking neurons as Bayesian integra- tors accumulating evidence over time about events in the external world or the body, and communicating to other neurons their certainties about these events. In this model, spikes signal the occurrence of new infor- mation, i.e. what cannot be predicted from the past activity. As a result, firing statistics are close to Poisson, albeit providing a deterministic rep- resentation of probabilities. We proceed to develop a theory of Bayesian inference in spiking neural networks, recurrent interactions implement- ing a variant of belief propagation. Many perceptual and motor tasks performed by the central nervous system are probabilis- tic, and can be described in a Bayesian framework [4, 3].

Spike sorting involves clustering spike trains recorded by a micro- electrode according to the source neuron. It is a complicated problem, which requires a lot of human labor, partly due to the non-stationary na- ture of the data. We propose an automated technique for the clustering of non-stationary Gaussian sources in a Bayesian framework. At a first search stage, data is divided into short time frames and candidate descrip- tions of the data as a mixture of Gaussians are computed for each frame. At a second stage transition probabilities between candidate mixtures are computed, and a globally optimal clustering is found as the MAP so- lution of the resulting probabilistic model. Transition probabilities are computed using local stationarity assumptions and are based on a Gaus- sian version of the Jensen-Shannon divergence.

Two players, Black and White, take turns to place stones on the intersections of an N N grid (usually N 19 but smaller boards are in use as well). All the stones of each player are identical. Players place their stones in order to create territory by occupying or surrounding areas of the board. The player with the most territory at the end of the game is the winner. A stone is captured if it has been completely surrounded (in the horizontal and vertical directions) by stones of the opponent's colour.

As animals interact with their environments, they must constantly update estimates about their states. Bayesian models combine prior probabil- ities, a dynamical model and sensory evidence to update estimates op- timally. These models are consistent with the results of many diverse psychophysical studies. However, little is known about the neural rep- resentation and manipulation of such Bayesian information, particularly in populations of spiking neurons. We consider this issue, suggesting a model based on standard neural architecture and activations.