Performing inference in Bayesian models requires sampling algorithms to draw samples from the posterior. This becomes prohibitively expensive as the size of data sets increase. Constructing approximations to the posterior which are cheap to evaluate is a popular approach to circumvent this issue. This begs the question of what is an appropriate space to perform approximation of Bayesian posterior measures. This manuscript studies the application of Bayes Hilbert spaces to the posterior approximation problem. Bayes Hilbert spaces are studied in functional data analysis in the context where observed functions are probability density functions and their application to computational Bayesian problems is in its infancy. This manuscript shall outline Bayes Hilbert spaces and their connection to Bayesian computation, in particular novel connections between Bayes Hilbert spaces, Bayesian coreset algorithms and kernel-based distances.

Causal reasoning and game-theoretic reasoning are fundamental topics in artificial intelligence, among many other disciplines: this paper is concerned with their intersection. Despite their importance, a formal framework that supports both these forms of reasoning has, until now, been lacking. We offer a solution in the form of (structural) causal games, which can be seen as extending Pearl's causal hierarchy to the game-theoretic domain, or as extending Koller and Milch's multi-agent influence diagrams to the causal domain. We then consider three key questions: i) How can the (causal) dependencies in games - either between variables, or between strategies - be modelled in a uniform, principled manner? ii) How may causal queries be computed in causal games, and what assumptions does this require? iii) How do causal games compare to existing formalisms? To address question i), we introduce mechanised games, which encode dependencies between agents' decision rules and the distributions governing the game. In response to question ii), we present definitions of predictions, interventions, and counterfactuals, and discuss the assumptions required for each. Regarding question iii), we describe correspondences between causal games and other formalisms, and explain how causal games can be used to answer queries that other causal or game-theoretic models do not support. Finally, we highlight possible applications of causal games, aided by an extensive open-source Python library.

Extending Moore's law by augmenting complementary-metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) transistors with emerging nanotechnologies (X) has become increasingly important. Accelerating Monte Carlo algorithms that rely on random sampling with such CMOS+X technologies could have significant impact on a large number of fields from probabilistic machine learning, optimization to quantum simulation. In this paper, we show the combination of stochastic magnetic tunnel junction (sMTJ)-based probabilistic bits (p-bits) with versatile Field Programmable Gate Arrays (FPGA) to design a CMOS + X (X = sMTJ) prototype. Our approach enables high-quality true randomness that is essential for Monte Carlo based probabilistic sampling and learning. Our heterogeneous computer successfully performs probabilistic inference and asynchronous Boltzmann learning, despite device-to-device variations in sMTJs. A comprehensive comparison using a CMOS predictive process design kit (PDK) reveals that compact sMTJ-based p-bits replace 10,000 transistors while dissipating two orders of magnitude of less energy (2 fJ per random bit), compared to digital CMOS p-bits. Scaled and integrated versions of our CMOS + stochastic nanomagnet approach can significantly advance probabilistic computing and its applications in various domains by providing massively parallel and truly random numbers with extremely high throughput and energy-efficiency.

The power and flexibility of Optimal Transport (OT) have pervaded a wide spectrum of problems, including recent Machine Learning challenges such as unsupervised domain adaptation. Its essence of quantitatively relating two probability distributions by some optimal metric, has been creatively exploited and shown to hold promise for many real-world data challenges. In a related theme in the present work, we posit that domain adaptation robustness is rooted in the intrinsic (latent) representations of the respective data, which are inherently lying in a non-linear submanifold embedded in a higher dimensional Euclidean space. We account for the geometric properties by refining the $l^2$ Euclidean metric to better reflect the geodesic distance between two distinct representations. We integrate a metric correction term as well as a prior cluster structure in the source data of the OT-driven adaptation. We show that this is tantamount to an implicit Bayesian framework, which we demonstrate to be viable for a more robust and better-performing approach to domain adaptation. Substantiating experiments are also included for validation purposes.

Argumentation problems are concerned with determining the acceptability of a set of arguments from their relational structure. When the available information is uncertain, probabilistic argumentation frameworks provide modelling tools to account for it. The first contribution of this paper is a novel interpretation of probabilistic argumentation frameworks as probabilistic logic programs. Probabilistic logic programs are logic programs in which some of the facts are annotated with probabilities. We show that the programs representing probabilistic argumentation frameworks do not satisfy a common assumption in probabilistic logic programming (PLP) semantics, which is, that probabilistic facts fully capture the uncertainty in the domain under investigation. The second contribution of this paper is then a novel PLP semantics for programs where a choice of probabilistic facts does not uniquely determine the truth assignment of the logical atoms. The third contribution of this paper is the implementation of a PLP system supporting this semantics: smProbLog. smProbLog is a novel PLP framework based on the probabilistic logic programming language ProbLog. smProbLog supports many inference and learning tasks typical of PLP, which, together with our first contribution, provide novel reasoning tools for probabilistic argumentation. We evaluate our approach with experiments analyzing the computational cost of the proposed algorithms and their application to a dataset of argumentation problems.

Given two probability densities on related data spaces, we seek a map pushing one density to the other while satisfying application-dependent constraints. For maps to have utility in a broad application space (including domain translation, domain adaptation, and generative modeling), the map must be available to apply on out-of-sample data points and should correspond to a probabilistic model over the two spaces. Unfortunately, existing approaches, which are primarily based on optimal transport, do not address these needs. In this paper, we introduce a novel pushforward map learning algorithm that utilizes normalizing flows to parameterize the map. We first re-formulate the classical optimal transport problem to be map-focused and propose a learning algorithm to select from all possible maps under the constraint that the map minimizes a probability distance and application-specific regularizers; thus, our method can be seen as solving a modified optimal transport problem. Once the map is learned, it can be used to map samples from a source domain to a target domain. In addition, because the map is parameterized as a composition of normalizing flows, it models the empirical distributions over the two data spaces and allows both sampling and likelihood evaluation for both data sets. We compare our method (parOT) to related optimal transport approaches in the context of domain adaptation and domain translation on benchmark data sets. Finally, to illustrate the impact of our work on applied problems, we apply parOT to a real scientific application: spectral calibration for high-dimensional measurements from two vastly different environments

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models, which admit efficient inference routines depending on their structural properties. In this paper, we introduce md-vtrees, a novel structural formulation of (marginal) determinism in structured decomposable PCs, which generalizes previously proposed classes such as probabilistic sentential decision diagrams. Crucially, we show how mdvtrees can be used to derive tractability conditions and efficient algorithms for advanced inference queries expressed as arbitrary compositions of basic probabilistic operations, such as marginalization, multiplication and reciprocals, in a sound and generalizable manner. In particular, we derive the first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries such as backdoor adjustment on PCs. As a practical instantiation of the framework, we propose MDNets, a novel PC architecture using md-vtrees, and empirically demonstrate their application to causal inference.

Machine learning algorithms have achieved superhuman performance in specific complex domains. Yet learning online from few examples and efficiently generalizing across domains remains elusive. In humans such learning proceeds via declarative memory formation and is closely associated with consciousness. Predictive processing has been advanced as a principled Bayesian inference framework for understanding the cortex as implementing deep generative perceptual models for both sensory data and action control. However, predictive processing offers little direct insight into fast compositional learning or the mystery of consciousness. Here we propose that through implementing online learning by hierarchical binding of unpredicted inferences, a predictive processing system may flexibly generalize in novel situations by forming working memories for perceptions and actions from single examples, which can become short- and long-term declarative memories retrievable by associative recall. We argue that the contents of such working memories are unified yet differentiated, can be maintained by selective attention and are consistent with observations of masking, postdictive perceptual integration, and other paradigm cases of consciousness research. We describe how the brain could have evolved to use perceptual value prediction for reinforcement learning of complex action policies simultaneously implementing multiple survival and reproduction strategies. 'Conscious experience' is how such a learning system perceptually represents its own functioning, suggesting an answer to the meta problem of consciousness. Our proposal naturally unifies feature binding, recurrent processing, and predictive processing with global workspace, and, to a lesser extent, the higher order theories of consciousness.

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used in various fields for modeling, prediction, and decision making. pgmpy is a python package that provides a collection of algorithms and tools to work with BNs and related models. It implements algorithms for structure learning, parameter estimation, approximate and exact inference, causal inference, and simulations. These implementations focus on modularity and easy extensibility to allow users to quickly modify/add to existing algorithms, or to implement new algorithms for different use cases. pgmpy is released under the MIT License; the source code is available at: https://github.com/pgmpy/pgmpy, and the documentation at: https://pgmpy.org.

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little attention. In this paper, we analyze CATE estimation in the setting with missing treatments where unique challenges arise in the form of covariate shifts. We identify two covariate shifts in our setting: (i) a covariate shift between the treated and control population; and (ii) a covariate shift between the observed and missing treatment population. We first theoretically show the effect of these covariate shifts by deriving a generalization bound for estimating CATE in our setting with missing treatments. Then, motivated by our bound, we develop the missing treatment representation network (MTRNet), a novel CATE estimation algorithm that learns a balanced representation of covariates using domain adaptation. By using balanced representations, MTRNet provides more reliable CATE estimates in the covariate domains where the data are not fully observed. In various experiments with semi-synthetic and real-world data, we show that our algorithm improves over the state-of-the-art by a substantial margin.