Given two probability densities on related data spaces, we seek a map pushing one density to the other while satisfying application-dependent constraints. For maps to have utility in a broad application space (including domain translation, domain adaptation, and generative modeling), the map must be available to apply on out-of-sample data points and should correspond to a probabilistic model over the two spaces. Unfortunately, existing approaches, which are primarily based on optimal transport, do not address these needs. In this paper, we introduce a novel pushforward map learning algorithm that utilizes normalizing flows to parameterize the map. We first re-formulate the classical optimal transport problem to be map-focused and propose a learning algorithm to select from all possible maps under the constraint that the map minimizes a probability distance and application-specific regularizers; thus, our method can be seen as solving a modified optimal transport problem. Once the map is learned, it can be used to map samples from a source domain to a target domain. In addition, because the map is parameterized as a composition of normalizing flows, it models the empirical distributions over the two data spaces and allows both sampling and likelihood evaluation for both data sets. We compare our method (parOT) to related optimal transport approaches in the context of domain adaptation and domain translation on benchmark data sets. Finally, to illustrate the impact of our work on applied problems, we apply parOT to a real scientific application: spectral calibration for high-dimensional measurements from two vastly different environments

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are a class of tractable probabilistic models, which admit efficient inference routines depending on their structural properties. In this paper, we introduce md-vtrees, a novel structural formulation of (marginal) determinism in structured decomposable PCs, which generalizes previously proposed classes such as probabilistic sentential decision diagrams. Crucially, we show how mdvtrees can be used to derive tractability conditions and efficient algorithms for advanced inference queries expressed as arbitrary compositions of basic probabilistic operations, such as marginalization, multiplication and reciprocals, in a sound and generalizable manner. In particular, we derive the first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries such as backdoor adjustment on PCs. As a practical instantiation of the framework, we propose MDNets, a novel PC architecture using md-vtrees, and empirically demonstrate their application to causal inference.

Machine learning algorithms have achieved superhuman performance in specific complex domains. Yet learning online from few examples and efficiently generalizing across domains remains elusive. In humans such learning proceeds via declarative memory formation and is closely associated with consciousness. Predictive processing has been advanced as a principled Bayesian inference framework for understanding the cortex as implementing deep generative perceptual models for both sensory data and action control. However, predictive processing offers little direct insight into fast compositional learning or the mystery of consciousness. Here we propose that through implementing online learning by hierarchical binding of unpredicted inferences, a predictive processing system may flexibly generalize in novel situations by forming working memories for perceptions and actions from single examples, which can become short- and long-term declarative memories retrievable by associative recall. We argue that the contents of such working memories are unified yet differentiated, can be maintained by selective attention and are consistent with observations of masking, postdictive perceptual integration, and other paradigm cases of consciousness research. We describe how the brain could have evolved to use perceptual value prediction for reinforcement learning of complex action policies simultaneously implementing multiple survival and reproduction strategies. 'Conscious experience' is how such a learning system perceptually represents its own functioning, suggesting an answer to the meta problem of consciousness. Our proposal naturally unifies feature binding, recurrent processing, and predictive processing with global workspace, and, to a lesser extent, the higher order theories of consciousness.

Bayesian Networks (BNs) are used in various fields for modeling, prediction, and decision making. pgmpy is a python package that provides a collection of algorithms and tools to work with BNs and related models. It implements algorithms for structure learning, parameter estimation, approximate and exact inference, causal inference, and simulations. These implementations focus on modularity and easy extensibility to allow users to quickly modify/add to existing algorithms, or to implement new algorithms for different use cases. pgmpy is released under the MIT License; the source code is available at: https://github.com/pgmpy/pgmpy, and the documentation at: https://pgmpy.org.

Estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) is challenging, especially when treatment information is missing. Although this is a widespread problem in practice, CATE estimation with missing treatments has received little attention. In this paper, we analyze CATE estimation in the setting with missing treatments where unique challenges arise in the form of covariate shifts. We identify two covariate shifts in our setting: (i) a covariate shift between the treated and control population; and (ii) a covariate shift between the observed and missing treatment population. We first theoretically show the effect of these covariate shifts by deriving a generalization bound for estimating CATE in our setting with missing treatments. Then, motivated by our bound, we develop the missing treatment representation network (MTRNet), a novel CATE estimation algorithm that learns a balanced representation of covariates using domain adaptation. By using balanced representations, MTRNet provides more reliable CATE estimates in the covariate domains where the data are not fully observed. In various experiments with semi-synthetic and real-world data, we show that our algorithm improves over the state-of-the-art by a substantial margin.

We propose the NeRF-LEBM, a likelihood-based top-down 3D-aware 2D image generative model that incorporates 3D representation via Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) and 2D imaging process via differentiable volume rendering. The model represents an image as a rendering process from 3D object to 2D image and is conditioned on some latent variables that account for object characteristics and are assumed to follow informative trainable energy-based prior models. We propose two likelihood-based learning frameworks to train the NeRF-LEBM: (i) maximum likelihood estimation with Markov chain Monte Carlo-based inference and (ii) variational inference with the reparameterization trick. We study our models in the scenarios with both known and unknown camera poses. Experiments on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that the NeRF-LEBM can infer 3D object structures from 2D images, generate 2D images with novel views and objects, learn from incomplete 2D images, and learn from 2D images with known or unknown camera poses.

Solar energy has been developed as a better alternative to fossil fuels in the past few years. It is a renewable and infinite source of energy which does not have a bad impact on the environment. It is also cheap and easily accessible, making it a better alternative for both personal and commercial purposes. Solar Arrays are made when PV modules used in solar panels are connected together. Energy is produced when sunlight falls on Solar Panels which can be used instead of Fossil fuel's produced energy. For execution of a PV system under different situations, estimating the parameters in a PV model plays an important role because it enables us to optimise the design and performance of the system which leads to increased energy production and improved performance. If a PV system is not performing as expected, then identification of parameters of the PV model helps identify the root cause of the problem. This could be due to factors such as shading, module mismatch, or degradation over time. By accurately estimating the parameters, we can determine the best method to improve its performance.

In today's rapidly advancing world of Artificial Intelligence (AI), the need for explainable AI has become more critical than ever. As AI systems are being increasingly integrated into various aspects of our daily lives, it is crucial to understand how these systems make decisions and provide explanations for their actions. Bayesian networks, a powerful and versatile graphical modeling technique, are gaining prominence as a tool for building explainable AI models. In this blog, we will demystify Bayesian networks and explore their relevance in the field of AI. We will delve into the fundamentals of Bayesian networks, their applications in AI, and how they enable explainable AI.

Minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) prediction plays an important role in design and operation of nitrogen based enhanced oil recovery processes. In this work, a comparative study of statistical and machine learning methods used for MMP estimation is carried out. Most of the predictive models developed in this study exhibited superior performance over correlation and predictive models reported in literature.

Inverse problems are ubiquitous in the sciences and engineering. Two categories of inverse problems concerning a physical system are (1) estimate parameters in a model of the system from observed input-output pairs and (2) given a model of the system, reconstruct the input to it that caused some observed output. Applied inverse problems are challenging because a solution may (i) not exist, (ii) not be unique, or (iii) be sensitive to measurement noise contaminating the data. Bayesian statistical inversion (BSI) is an approach to tackle ill-posed and/or ill-conditioned inverse problems. Advantageously, BSI provides a "solution" that (i) quantifies uncertainty by assigning a probability to each possible value of the unknown parameter/input and (ii) incorporates prior information and beliefs about the parameter/input. Herein, we provide a tutorial of BSI for inverse problems, by way of illustrative examples dealing with heat transfer from ambient air to a cold lime fruit. First, we use BSI to infer a parameter in a dynamic model of the lime temperature from measurements of the lime temperature over time. Second, we use BSI to reconstruct the initial condition of the lime from a measurement of its temperature later in time. We demonstrate the incorporation of prior information, visualize the posterior distributions of the parameter/initial condition, and show posterior samples of lime temperature trajectories from the model. Our tutorial aims to reach a wide range of scientists and engineers.