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 Uncertainty


Learning How to Infer Partial MDPs for In-Context Adaptation and Exploration

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

To generalize across tasks, an agent should acquire knowledge from past tasks that facilitate adaptation and exploration in future tasks. We focus on the problem of in-context adaptation and exploration, where an agent only relies on context, i.e., history of states, actions and/or rewards, rather than gradient-based updates. Posterior sampling (extension of Thompson sampling) is a promising approach, but it requires Bayesian inference and dynamic programming, which often involve unknowns (e.g., a prior) and costly computations. To address these difficulties, we use a transformer to learn an inference process from training tasks and consider a hypothesis space of partial models, represented as small Markov decision processes that are cheap for dynamic programming. In our version of the Symbolic Alchemy benchmark, our method's adaptation speed and exploration-exploitation balance approach those of an exact posterior sampling oracle. We also show that even though partial models exclude relevant information from the environment, they can nevertheless lead to good policies.


Machine Learning Benchmarks for the Classification of Equivalent Circuit Models from Electrochemical Impedance Spectra

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Analysis of Electrochemical Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) data for electrochemical systems often consists of defining an Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM) using expert knowledge and then optimizing the model parameters to deconvolute various resistance, capacitive, inductive, or diffusion responses. For small data sets, this procedure can be conducted manually; however, it is not feasible to manually define a proper ECM for extensive data sets with a wide range of EIS responses. Automatic identification of an ECM would substantially accelerate the analysis of large sets of EIS data. We showcase machine learning methods to classify the ECMs of 9,300 impedance spectra provided by QuantumScape for the BatteryDEV hackathon. The best-performing approach is a gradient-boosted tree model utilizing a library to automatically generate features, followed by a random forest model using the raw spectral data. A convolutional neural network using boolean images of Nyquist representations is presented as an alternative, although it achieves a lower accuracy. We publish the data and open source the associated code. The approaches described in this article can serve as benchmarks for further studies. A key remaining challenge is the identifiability of the labels, underlined by the model performances and the comparison of misclassified spectra.


Fuzzy Gene Selection and Cancer Classification Based on Deep Learning Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning (ML) approaches have been used to develop highly accurate and efficient applications in many fields including bio-medical science. However, even with advanced ML techniques, cancer classification using gene expression data is still complicated because of the high dimensionality of the datasets employed. We developed a new fuzzy gene selection technique (FGS) to identify informative genes to facilitate cancer classification and reduce the dimensionality of the available gene expression data. Three feature selection methods (Mutual Information, F-ClassIf, and Chi-squared) were evaluated and employed to obtain the score and rank for each gene. Then, using Fuzzification and Defuzzification methods to obtain the best single score for each gene, which aids in the identification of significant genes. Our study applied the fuzzy measures to six gene expression datasets including four Microarray and two RNA-seq datasets for evaluating the proposed algorithm. With our FGS-enhanced method, the cancer classification model achieved 96.5%,96.2%,96%, and 95.9% for accuracy, precision, recall, and f1-score respectively, which is significantly higher than 69.2% accuracy, 57.8% precision, 66% recall, and 58.2% f1-score when the standard MLP method was used. In examining the six datasets that were used, the proposed model demonstrates it's capacity to classify cancer effectively.


Bayesian Reinforcement Learning with Limited Cognitive Load

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Cognitive science aims to identify the principles and mechanisms that underlie adaptive behavior. An important part of this endeavor is the development of unifying, normative theories that specify "design principles" that guide or constrain how intelligent systems respond to their environment [Marr, 1982, Anderson, 1990, Lewis et al., 2014, Griffiths et al., 2015, Gershman et al., 2015]. For example, accounts of learning, cognition, and decision-making often posit a function that an organism is optimizing--e.g., maximizing long-term reward or minimizing prediction error--and test plausible algorithms that achieve this--e.g., a particular learning rule or inference process. Historically, normative theories in cognitive science have been developed in tandem with new formal approaches in computer science and statistics. This partnership has been fruitful even given differences in scientific goals (e.g., engineering artificial intelligence versus reverse-engineering biological intelligence). Normative theories play a key role in facilitating cross-talk between different disciplines by providing a shared set of mathematical, analytical, and conceptual tools for describing computational problems and how to solve them [Ho and Griffiths, 2022]. This paper is written in the spirit of such cross-disciplinary fertilization. Here, we review recent work in computer science [Arumugam and Van Roy, 2021a, 2022] that develops a novel approach for unifying three distinct mathematical frameworks that will be familiar to many cognitive scientists (Figure 1).


Tuning Traditional Language Processing Approaches for Pashto Text Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Today text classification becomes critical task for concerned individuals for numerous purposes. Hence, several researches have been conducted to develop automatic text classification for national and international languages. However, the need for an automatic text categorization system for local languages is felt. The main aim of this study is to establish a Pashto automatic text classification system. In order to pursue this work, we built a Pashto corpus which is a collection of Pashto documents due to the unavailability of public datasets of Pashto text documents. Besides, this study compares several models containing both statistical and neural network machine learning techniques including Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Support Vector Machine (SVM), K Nearest Neighbor (KNN), decision tree, gaussian na\"ive Bayes, multinomial na\"ive Bayes, random forest, and logistic regression to discover the most effective approach. Moreover, this investigation evaluates two different feature extraction methods including unigram, and Time Frequency Inverse Document Frequency (IFIDF). Subsequently, this research obtained average testing accuracy rate 94% using MLP classification algorithm and TFIDF feature extraction method in this context.


Generalized Object Search

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Future collaborative robots must be capable of finding objects. As such a fundamental skill, we expect object search to eventually become an off-the-shelf capability for any robot, similar to e.g., object detection, SLAM, and motion planning. However, existing approaches either make unrealistic compromises (e.g., reduce the problem from 3D to 2D), resort to ad-hoc, greedy search strategies, or attempt to learn end-to-end policies in simulation that are yet to generalize across real robots and environments. This thesis argues that through using Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) to model object search while exploiting structures in the human world (e.g., octrees, correlations) and in human-robot interaction (e.g., spatial language), a practical and effective system for generalized object search can be achieved. In support of this argument, I develop methods and systems for (multi-)object search in 3D environments under uncertainty due to limited field of view, occlusion, noisy, unreliable detectors, spatial correlations between objects, and possibly ambiguous spatial language (e.g., "The red car is behind Chase Bank"). Besides evaluation in simulators such as PyGame, AirSim, and AI2-THOR, I design and implement a robot-independent, environment-agnostic system for generalized object search in 3D and deploy it on the Boston Dynamics Spot robot, the Kinova MOVO robot, and the Universal Robots UR5e robotic arm, to perform object search in different environments. The system enables, for example, a Spot robot to find a toy cat hidden underneath a couch in a kitchen area in under one minute. This thesis also broadly surveys the object search literature, proposing taxonomies in object search problem settings, methods and systems.


A survey of modularized backstepping control design approaches to nonlinear ODE systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Backstepping is a mature and powerful Lyapunov-based design approach for a specific set of systems. Throughout the development over three decades, innovative theories and practices have extended backstepping to stabilization and tracking problems for nonlinear systems with growing complexity. The attractions of the backstepping-like approach are the recursive design processes and modularized design. A nonlinear system can be transferred into a group of simple problems and solved it by a sequential superposition of the corresponding approaches for each problem. To handle the complexities, backstepping designs always come up with adaptive control and robust control. The survey aims to review the milestone theoretical achievements among thousands of publications making the state-feedback backstepping designs of complex ODE systems to be systematic and modularized. Several selected elegant methods are reviewed, starting from the general designs, and then the finite-time control enhancing the convergence rate, the fuzzy logic system and neural network estimating the system unknowns, the Nussbaum function handling unknown control coefficients, barrier Lyapunov function solving state constraints, and the hyperbolic tangent function applying in robust designs. The associated assumptions and Lyapunov function candidates, inequalities, and the deduction key points are reviewed. The nonlinearity and complexities lay in state constraints, disturbance, input nonlinearities, time-delay effects, pure feedback systems, event-triggered systems, and stochastic systems. Instead of networked systems, the survey focuses on stand-alone systems.


Toward the Automated Construction of Probabilistic Knowledge Graphs for the Maritime Domain

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

International maritime crime is becoming increasingly sophisticated, often associated with wider criminal networks. Detecting maritime threats by means of fusing data purely related to physical movement (i.e., those generated by physical sensors, or hard data) is not sufficient. This has led to research and development efforts aimed at combining hard data with other types of data (especially human-generated or soft data). Existing work often assumes that input soft data is available in a structured format, or is focused on extracting certain relevant entities or concepts to accompany or annotate hard data. Much less attention has been given to extracting the rich knowledge about the situations of interest implicitly embedded in the large amount of soft data existing in unstructured formats (such as intelligence reports and news articles). In order to exploit the potentially useful and rich information from such sources, it is necessary to extract not only the relevant entities and concepts but also their semantic relations, together with the uncertainty associated with the extracted knowledge (i.e., in the form of probabilistic knowledge graphs). This will increase the accuracy of and confidence in, the extracted knowledge and facilitate subsequent reasoning and learning. To this end, we propose Maritime DeepDive, an initial prototype for the automated construction of probabilistic knowledge graphs from natural language data for the maritime domain. In this paper, we report on the current implementation of Maritime DeepDive, together with preliminary results on extracting probabilistic events from maritime piracy incidents. This pipeline was evaluated on a manually crafted gold standard, yielding promising results.


Identifiability of latent-variable and structural-equation models: from linear to nonlinear

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

An old problem in multivariate statistics is that linear Gaussian models are often unidentifiable, i.e. some parameters cannot be uniquely estimated. In factor (component) analysis, an orthogonal rotation of the factors is unidentifiable, while in linear regression, the direction of effect cannot be identified. For such linear models, non-Gaussianity of the (latent) variables has been shown to provide identifiability. In the case of factor analysis, this leads to independent component analysis, while in the case of the direction of effect, non-Gaussian versions of structural equation modelling solve the problem. More recently, we have shown how even general nonparametric nonlinear versions of such models can be estimated. Non-Gaussianity is not enough in this case, but assuming we have time series, or that the distributions are suitably modulated by some observed auxiliary variables, the models are identifiable. This paper reviews the identifiability theory for the linear and nonlinear cases, considering both factor analytic models and structural equation models.


Multiresolution kernel matrix algebra

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We propose a sparse algebra for samplet compressed kernel matrices, to enable efficient scattered data analysis. We show the compression of kernel matrices by means of samplets produces optimally sparse matrices in a certain S-format. It can be performed in cost and memory that scale essentially linearly with the matrix size $N$, for kernels of finite differentiability, along with addition and multiplication of S-formatted matrices. We prove and exploit the fact that the inverse of a kernel matrix (if it exists) is compressible in the S-format as well. Selected inversion allows to directly compute the entries in the corresponding sparsity pattern. The S-formatted matrix operations enable the efficient, approximate computation of more complicated matrix functions such as ${\bm A}^\alpha$ or $\exp({\bm A})$. The matrix algebra is justified mathematically by pseudo differential calculus. As an application, efficient Gaussian process learning algorithms for spatial statistics is considered. Numerical results are presented to illustrate and quantify our findings.