Uncertainty
Law Informs Code: A Legal Informatics Approach to Aligning Artificial Intelligence with Humans
We are currently unable to specify human goals and societal values in a way that reliably directs AI behavior. Law-making and legal interpretation form a computational engine that converts opaque human values into legible directives. "Law Informs Code" is the research agenda embedding legal knowledge and reasoning in AI. Similar to how parties to a legal contract cannot foresee every potential contingency of their future relationship, and legislators cannot predict all the circumstances under which their proposed bills will be applied, we cannot ex ante specify rules that provably direct good AI behavior. Legal theory and practice have developed arrays of tools to address these specification problems. For instance, legal standards allow humans to develop shared understandings and adapt them to novel situations. In contrast to more prosaic uses of the law (e.g., as a deterrent of bad behavior through the threat of sanction), leveraged as an expression of how humans communicate their goals, and what society values, Law Informs Code. We describe how data generated by legal processes (methods of law-making, statutory interpretation, contract drafting, applications of legal standards, legal reasoning, etc.) can facilitate the robust specification of inherently vague human goals. This increases human-AI alignment and the local usefulness of AI. Toward society-AI alignment, we present a framework for understanding law as the applied philosophy of multi-agent alignment. Although law is partly a reflection of historically contingent political power - and thus not a perfect aggregation of citizen preferences - if properly parsed, its distillation offers the most legitimate computational comprehension of societal values available. If law eventually informs powerful AI, engaging in the deliberative political process to improve law takes on even more meaning.
A Genetic Fuzzy System for Interpretable and Parsimonious Reinforcement Learning Policies
Bishop, Jordan T., Gallagher, Marcus, Browne, Will N.
Reinforcement learning (RL) is experiencing a resurgence in research interest, where Learning Classifier Systems (LCSs) have been applied for many years. However, traditional Michigan approaches tend to evolve large rule bases that are difficult to interpret or scale to domains beyond standard mazes. A Pittsburgh Genetic Fuzzy System (dubbed Fuzzy MoCoCo) is proposed that utilises both multiobjective and cooperative coevolutionary mechanisms to evolve fuzzy rule-based policies for RL environments. Multiobjectivity in the system is concerned with policy performance vs. complexity. The continuous state RL environment Mountain Car is used as a testing bed for the proposed system. Results show the system is able to effectively explore the trade-off between policy performance and complexity, and learn interpretable, high-performing policies that use as few rules as possible.
Model-based Validation as Probabilistic Inference
Delecki, Harrison, Corso, Anthony, Kochenderfer, Mykel J.
Estimating the distribution over failures is a key step in validating autonomous systems. Existing approaches focus on finding failures for a small range of initial conditions or make restrictive assumptions about the properties of the system under test. We frame estimating the distribution over failure trajectories for sequential systems as Bayesian inference. Our model-based approach represents the distribution over failure trajectories using rollouts of system dynamics and computes trajectory gradients using automatic differentiation. Our approach is demonstrated in an inverted pendulum control system, an autonomous vehicle driving scenario, and a partially observable lunar lander. Sampling is performed using an off-the-shelf implementation of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with multiple chains to capture multimodality and gradient smoothing for safe trajectories. In all experiments, we observed improvements in sample efficiency and parameter space coverage compared to black-box baseline approaches. This work is open sourced.
Toward Falsifying Causal Graphs Using a Permutation-Based Test
Eulig, Elias, Mastakouri, Atalanti A., Blöbaum, Patrick, Hardt, Michaela, Janzing, Dominik
Understanding the causal relationships among the variables of a system is paramount to explain and control its behaviour. Inferring the causal graph from observational data without interventions, however, requires a lot of strong assumptions that are not always realistic. Even for domain experts it can be challenging to express the causal graph. Therefore, metrics that quantitatively assess the goodness of a causal graph provide helpful checks before using it in downstream tasks. Existing metrics provide an absolute number of inconsistencies between the graph and the observed data, and without a baseline, practitioners are left to answer the hard question of how many such inconsistencies are acceptable or expected. Here, we propose a novel consistency metric by constructing a surrogate baseline through node permutations. By comparing the number of inconsistencies with those on the surrogate baseline, we derive an interpretable metric that captures whether the DAG fits significantly better than random. Evaluating on both simulated and real data sets from various domains, including biology and cloud monitoring, we demonstrate that the true DAG is not falsified by our metric, whereas the wrong graphs given by a hypothetical user are likely to be falsified.
Fuzzy Temporal Protoforms for the Quantitative Description of Processes in Natural Language
Fontenla-Seco, Yago, Bugarín-Diz, Alberto, Lama, Manuel
In this paper, we propose a series of fuzzy temporal protoforms in the framework of the automatic generation of quantitative and qualitative natural language descriptions of processes. The model includes temporal and causal information from processes and attributes, quantifies attributes in time during the process life-span and recalls causal relations and temporal distances between events, among other features. Through integrating process mining techniques and fuzzy sets within the usual Data-to-Text architecture, our framework is able to extract relevant quantitative temporal as well as structural information from a process and describe it in natural language involving uncertain terms. A real use-case in the cardiology domain is presented, showing the potential of our model for providing natural language explanations addressed to domain experts.
The Hardness of Reasoning about Probabilities and Causality
van der Zander, Benito, Bläser, Markus, Liśkiewicz, Maciej
We study formal languages which are capable of fully expressing quantitative probabilistic reasoning and do-calculus reasoning for causal effects, from a computational complexity perspective. We focus on satisfiability problems whose instance formulas allow expressing many tasks in probabilistic and causal inference. The main contribution of this work is establishing the exact computational complexity of these satisfiability problems. We introduce a new natural complexity class, named succ$\exists$R, which can be viewed as a succinct variant of the well-studied class $\exists$R, and show that the problems we consider are complete for succ$\exists$R. Our results imply even stronger algorithmic limitations than were proven by Fagin, Halpern, and Megiddo (1990) and Moss\'{e}, Ibeling, and Icard (2022) for some variants of the standard languages used commonly in probabilistic and causal inference.
Literature Review of the Recent Trends and Applications in various Fuzzy Rule based systems
Varshney, Ayush K., Torra, Vicenç
Fuzzy rule based systems (FRBSs) is a rule-based system which uses linguistic fuzzy variables as antecedents and consequent to represent human understandable knowledge. They have been applied to various applications and areas throughout the soft computing literature. However, FRBSs suffers from many drawbacks such as uncertainty representation, high number of rules, interpretability loss, high computational time for learning etc. To overcome these issues with FRBSs, there exists many extensions of FRBSs. This paper presents an overview and literature review of recent trends on various types and prominent areas of fuzzy systems (FRBSs) namely genetic fuzzy system (GFS), hierarchical fuzzy system (HFS), neuro fuzzy system (NFS), evolving fuzzy system (eFS), FRBSs for big data, FRBSs for imbalanced data, interpretability in FRBSs and FRBSs which use cluster centroids as fuzzy rules. The review is for years 2010-2021. This paper also highlights important contributions, publication statistics and current trends in the field. The paper also addresses several open research areas which need further attention from the FRBSs research community.
Sorting and Hypergraph Orientation under Uncertainty with Predictions
Erlebach, Thomas, de Lima, Murilo Santos, Megow, Nicole, Schlöter, Jens
Learning-augmented algorithms have been attracting increasing interest, but have only recently been considered in the setting of explorable uncertainty where precise values of uncertain input elements can be obtained by a query and the goal is to minimize the number of queries needed to solve a problem. We study learning-augmented algorithms for sorting and hypergraph orientation under uncertainty, assuming access to untrusted predictions for the uncertain values. Our algorithms provide improved performance guarantees for accurate predictions while maintaining worst-case guarantees that are best possible without predictions. For hypergraph orientation, for any $\gamma \geq 2$, we give an algorithm that achieves a competitive ratio of $1+1/\gamma$ for correct predictions and $\gamma$ for arbitrarily wrong predictions. For sorting, we achieve an optimal solution for accurate predictions while still being $2$-competitive for arbitrarily wrong predictions. These tradeoffs are the best possible. We also consider different error metrics and show that the performance of our algorithms degrades smoothly with the prediction error in all the cases where this is possible.
Interactive and Incremental Learning of Spatial Object Relations from Human Demonstrations
Kartmann, Rainer, Asfour, Tamim
Humans use semantic concepts such as spatial relations between objects to describe scenes and communicate tasks such as "Put the tea to the right of the cup" or "Move the plate between the fork and the spoon." Just as children, assistive robots must be able to learn the sub-symbolic meaning of such concepts from human demonstrations and instructions. We address the problem of incrementally learning geometric models of spatial relations from few demonstrations collected online during interaction with a human. Such models enable a robot to manipulate objects in order to fulfill desired spatial relations specified by verbal instructions. At the start, we assume the robot has no geometric model of spatial relations. Given a task as above, the robot requests the user to demonstrate the task once in order to create a model from a single demonstration, leveraging cylindrical probability distribution as generative representation of spatial relations. We show how this model can be updated incrementally with each new demonstration without access to past examples in a sample-efficient way using incremental maximum likelihood estimation, and demonstrate the approach on a real humanoid robot.
Discrete Diffusion Probabilistic Models for Symbolic Music Generation
Plasser, Matthias, Peter, Silvan, Widmer, Gerhard
Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) have made great strides in generating high-quality samples in both discrete and continuous domains. However, Discrete DDPMs (D3PMs) have yet to be applied to the domain of Symbolic Music. This work presents the direct generation of Polyphonic Symbolic Music using D3PMs. Our model exhibits state-of-the-art sample quality, according to current quantitative evaluation metrics, and allows for flexible infilling at the note level. We further show, that our models are accessible to post-hoc classifier guidance, widening the scope of possible applications. However, we also cast a critical view on quantitative evaluation of music sample quality via statistical metrics, and present a simple algorithm that can confound our metrics with completely spurious, non-musical samples.