We study formal languages which are capable of fully expressing quantitative probabilistic reasoning and do-calculus reasoning for causal effects, from a computational complexity perspective. We focus on satisfiability problems whose instance formulas allow expressing many tasks in probabilistic and causal inference. The main contribution of this work is establishing the exact computational complexity of these satisfiability problems. We introduce a new natural complexity class, named succ$\exists$R, which can be viewed as a succinct variant of the well-studied class $\exists$R, and show that the problems we consider are complete for succ$\exists$R. Our results imply even stronger algorithmic limitations than were proven by Fagin, Halpern, and Megiddo (1990) and Moss\'{e}, Ibeling, and Icard (2022) for some variants of the standard languages used commonly in probabilistic and causal inference.

Fuzzy rule based systems (FRBSs) is a rule-based system which uses linguistic fuzzy variables as antecedents and consequent to represent human understandable knowledge. They have been applied to various applications and areas throughout the soft computing literature. However, FRBSs suffers from many drawbacks such as uncertainty representation, high number of rules, interpretability loss, high computational time for learning etc. To overcome these issues with FRBSs, there exists many extensions of FRBSs. This paper presents an overview and literature review of recent trends on various types and prominent areas of fuzzy systems (FRBSs) namely genetic fuzzy system (GFS), hierarchical fuzzy system (HFS), neuro fuzzy system (NFS), evolving fuzzy system (eFS), FRBSs for big data, FRBSs for imbalanced data, interpretability in FRBSs and FRBSs which use cluster centroids as fuzzy rules. The review is for years 2010-2021. This paper also highlights important contributions, publication statistics and current trends in the field. The paper also addresses several open research areas which need further attention from the FRBSs research community.

Learning-augmented algorithms have been attracting increasing interest, but have only recently been considered in the setting of explorable uncertainty where precise values of uncertain input elements can be obtained by a query and the goal is to minimize the number of queries needed to solve a problem. We study learning-augmented algorithms for sorting and hypergraph orientation under uncertainty, assuming access to untrusted predictions for the uncertain values. Our algorithms provide improved performance guarantees for accurate predictions while maintaining worst-case guarantees that are best possible without predictions. For hypergraph orientation, for any $\gamma \geq 2$, we give an algorithm that achieves a competitive ratio of $1+1/\gamma$ for correct predictions and $\gamma$ for arbitrarily wrong predictions. For sorting, we achieve an optimal solution for accurate predictions while still being $2$-competitive for arbitrarily wrong predictions. These tradeoffs are the best possible. We also consider different error metrics and show that the performance of our algorithms degrades smoothly with the prediction error in all the cases where this is possible.

Humans use semantic concepts such as spatial relations between objects to describe scenes and communicate tasks such as "Put the tea to the right of the cup" or "Move the plate between the fork and the spoon." Just as children, assistive robots must be able to learn the sub-symbolic meaning of such concepts from human demonstrations and instructions. We address the problem of incrementally learning geometric models of spatial relations from few demonstrations collected online during interaction with a human. Such models enable a robot to manipulate objects in order to fulfill desired spatial relations specified by verbal instructions. At the start, we assume the robot has no geometric model of spatial relations. Given a task as above, the robot requests the user to demonstrate the task once in order to create a model from a single demonstration, leveraging cylindrical probability distribution as generative representation of spatial relations. We show how this model can be updated incrementally with each new demonstration without access to past examples in a sample-efficient way using incremental maximum likelihood estimation, and demonstrate the approach on a real humanoid robot.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) have made great strides in generating high-quality samples in both discrete and continuous domains. However, Discrete DDPMs (D3PMs) have yet to be applied to the domain of Symbolic Music. This work presents the direct generation of Polyphonic Symbolic Music using D3PMs. Our model exhibits state-of-the-art sample quality, according to current quantitative evaluation metrics, and allows for flexible infilling at the note level. We further show, that our models are accessible to post-hoc classifier guidance, widening the scope of possible applications. However, we also cast a critical view on quantitative evaluation of music sample quality via statistical metrics, and present a simple algorithm that can confound our metrics with completely spurious, non-musical samples.

Maji et al. introduced in 2002 a method of parametric decision making using soft sets as tools and representing their tabular form as a binary matrix. In cases, however, where some or all of the parameters used for the characterization of the elements of the universal set are of fuzzy texture, their method does not give always the best decision making solution. In order to tackle this problem, we modified in earlier works the method of Maji et al. by replacing the binary elements in the tabular form of the corresponding soft set either by grey numbers or by triangular fuzzy numbers. In this work, in order to tackle more efficiently cases in which the decision maker has doubts about the correctness of the fuzzy/qualitative characterizations assigned to some or all of the elements of the universal set, we replace the binary elements of the tabular form by neutrosophic triplets. Our new, neutrosophic decision making method is illustrated by an application concerning the choice of a new player by a soccer club.

The problem of model counting, also known as #SAT, is to compute the number of models or satisfying assignments of a given Boolean formula $F$. Model counting is a fundamental problem in computer science with a wide range of applications. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in using hashing-based techniques for approximate model counting that provide $(\varepsilon, \delta)$-guarantees: i.e., the count returned is within a $(1+\varepsilon)$-factor of the exact count with confidence at least $1-\delta$. While hashing-based techniques attain reasonable scalability for large enough values of $\delta$, their scalability is severely impacted for smaller values of $\delta$, thereby preventing their adoption in application domains that require estimates with high confidence. The primary contribution of this paper is to address the Achilles heel of hashing-based techniques: we propose a novel approach based on rounding that allows us to achieve a significant reduction in runtime for smaller values of $\delta$. The resulting counter, called RoundMC, achieves a substantial runtime performance improvement over the current state-of-the-art counter, ApproxMC. In particular, our extensive evaluation over a benchmark suite consisting of 1890 instances shows that RoundMC solves 204 more instances than ApproxMC, and achieves a $4\times$ speedup over ApproxMC.

Recently skew-t mixture models have been introduced as a flexible probabilistic modeling technique taking into account both skewness in data clusters and the statistical degree of freedom (S-DoF) to improve modeling generalizability, and robustness to heavy tails and skewness. In this paper, we show that the state-of-the-art skew-t mixture models fundamentally suffer from a hidden phenomenon named here as "S-DoF explosion," which results in local minima in the shapes of normal kernels during the non-convex iterative process of expectation maximization. For the first time, this paper provides insights into the instability of the S-DoF, which can result in the divergence of the kernels from the mixture of t-distribution, losing generalizability and power for modeling the outliers. Thus, in this paper, we propose a regularized iterative optimization process to train the mixture model, enhancing the generalizability and resiliency of the technique. The resulting mixture model is named Finite Mixture of Multivariate Regulated Skew-t (FiMReSt) Kernels, which stabilizes the S-DoF profile during optimization process of learning. To validate the performance, we have conducted a comprehensive experiment on several real-world datasets and a synthetic dataset. The results highlight (a) superior performance of the FiMReSt, (b) generalizability in the presence of outliers, and (c) convergence of S-DoF.

In this paper, we develop an invertible mapping, called B-KRnet, on a bounded domain and apply it to density estimation/approximation for data or the solutions of PDEs such as the Fokker-Planck equation and the Keller-Segel equation. Similar to KRnet, the structure of B-KRnet adapts the triangular form of the Knothe-Rosenblatt rearrangement into a normalizing flow model. The main difference between B-KRnet and KRnet is that B-KRnet is defined on a hypercube while KRnet is defined on the whole space, in other words, we introduce a new mechanism in B-KRnet to maintain the exact invertibility. Using B-KRnet as a transport map, we obtain an explicit probability density function (PDF) model that corresponds to the pushforward of a prior (uniform) distribution on the hypercube. To approximate PDFs defined on a bounded computational domain, B-KRnet is more effective than KRnet. By coupling KRnet and B-KRnet, we can also define a deep generative model on a high-dimensional domain where some dimensions are bounded and other dimensions are unbounded. A typical case is the solution of the stationary kinetic Fokker-Planck equation, which is a PDF of position and momentum. Based on B-KRnet, we develop an adaptive learning approach to approximate partial differential equations whose solutions are PDFs or can be regarded as a PDF. In addition, we apply B-KRnet to density estimation when only data are available. A variety of numerical experiments is presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of B-KRnet.

Data from populations of systems are prevalent in many industrial applications. Machines and infrastructure are increasingly instrumented with sensing systems, emitting streams of telemetry data with complex interdependencies. In practice, data-centric monitoring procedures tend to consider these assets (and respective models) as distinct -- operating in isolation and associated with independent data. In contrast, this work captures the statistical correlations and interdependencies between models of a group of systems. Utilising a Bayesian multilevel approach, the value of data can be extended, since the population can be considered as a whole, rather than constituent parts. Most interestingly, domain expertise and knowledge of the underlying physics can be encoded in the model at the system, subgroup, or population level. We present an example of acoustic emission (time-of-arrival) mapping for source location, to illustrate how multilevel models naturally lend themselves to representing aggregate systems in engineering. In particular, we focus on constraining the combined models with domain knowledge to enhance transfer learning and enable further insights at the population level.