Currently, density-based clustering algorithms are widely applied because they can detect clusters with arbitrary shapes. However, they perform poorly in measuring global density, determining reasonable cluster centers or structures, assigning samples accurately and handling data with large density differences among clusters. To overcome their drawbacks, this paper proposes a granule fusion density-based clustering with evidential reasoning (GFDC). Both local and global densities of samples are measured by a sparse degree metric first. Then information granules are generated in high-density and low-density regions, assisting in processing clusters with significant density differences. Further, three novel granule fusion strategies are utilized to combine granules into stable cluster structures, helping to detect clusters with arbitrary shapes. Finally, by an assignment method developed from Dempster-Shafer theory, unstable samples are assigned. After using GFDC, a reasonable clustering result and some identified outliers can be obtained. The experimental results on extensive datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of GFDC.

Polar slice sampling (Roberts & Rosenthal, 2002) is a Markov chain approach for approximate sampling of distributions that is difficult, if not impossible, to implement efficiently, but behaves provably well with respect to the dimension. By updating the directional and radial components of chain iterates separately, we obtain a family of samplers that mimic polar slice sampling, and yet can be implemented efficiently. Numerical experiments in a variety of settings indicate that our proposed algorithm outperforms the two most closely related approaches, elliptical slice sampling (Murray et al., 2010) and hit-and-run uniform slice sampling (MacKay, 2003). We prove the well-definedness and convergence of our methods under suitable assumptions on the target distribution.

Conventional Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) cannot leverage unlabelled data to improve their predictions. To overcome this limitation, we introduce Self-Supervised Bayesian Neural Networks, which use unlabelled data to learn improved prior predictive distributions by maximising an evidence lower bound during an unsupervised pre-training step. With a novel methodology developed to better understand prior predictive distributions, we then show that self-supervised prior predictives capture image semantics better than conventional BNN priors. In our empirical evaluations, we see that self-supervised BNNs offer the label efficiency of self-supervised methods and the uncertainty estimates of Bayesian methods, particularly outperforming conventional BNNs in low-to-medium data regimes.

We study the computational complexity of counterfactual reasoning in relation to the complexity of associational and interventional reasoning on structural causal models (SCMs). We show that counterfactual reasoning is no harder than associational or interventional reasoning on fully specified SCMs in the context of two computational frameworks. The first framework is based on the notion of treewidth and includes the classical variable elimination and jointree algorithms. The second framework is based on the more recent and refined notion of causal treewidth which is directed towards models with functional dependencies such as SCMs. Our results are constructive and based on bounding the (causal) treewidth of twin networks -- used in standard counterfactual reasoning that contemplates two worlds, real and imaginary -- to the (causal) treewidth of the underlying SCM structure. In particular, we show that the latter (causal) treewidth is no more than twice the former plus one. Hence, if associational or interventional reasoning is tractable on a fully specified SCM then counterfactual reasoning is tractable too. We extend our results to general counterfactual reasoning that requires contemplating more than two worlds and discuss applications of our results to counterfactual reasoning with a partially specified SCM that is coupled with data. We finally present empirical results that measure the gap between the complexities of counterfactual reasoning and associational/interventional reasoning on random SCMs.

Three-way decision (3WD) is a powerful tool for granular computing to deal with uncertain data, commonly used in information systems, decision-making, and medical care. Three-way decision gets much research in traditional rough set models. However, three-way decision is rarely combined with the currently popular field of machine learning to expand its research. In this paper, three-way decision is connected with SVM, a standard binary classification model in machine learning, for solving imbalanced classification problems that SVM needs to improve. A new three-way fuzzy membership function and a new fuzzy twin support vector machine with three-way membership (TWFTSVM) are proposed. The new three-way fuzzy membership function is defined to increase the certainty of uncertain data in both input space and feature space, which assigns higher fuzzy membership to minority samples compared with majority samples. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed model, comparative experiments are designed for forty-seven different datasets with varying imbalance ratios. In addition, datasets with different imbalance ratios are derived from the same dataset to further assess the proposed model's performance. The results show that the proposed model significantly outperforms other traditional SVM-based methods.

Most semi-supervised learning (SSL) models entail complex structures and iterative training processes as well as face difficulties in interpreting their predictions to users. To address these issues, this paper proposes a new interpretable SSL model using the supervised and unsupervised Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) family of networks, which is denoted as SSL-ART. Firstly, SSL-ART adopts an unsupervised fuzzy ART network to create a number of prototype nodes using unlabeled samples. Then, it leverages a supervised fuzzy ARTMAP structure to map the established prototype nodes to the target classes using labeled samples. Specifically, a one-to-many (OtM) mapping scheme is devised to associate a prototype node with more than one class label. The main advantages of SSL-ART include the capability of: (i) performing online learning, (ii) reducing the number of redundant prototype nodes through the OtM mapping scheme and minimizing the effects of noisy samples, and (iii) providing an explanation facility for users to interpret the predicted outcomes. In addition, a weighted voting strategy is introduced to form an ensemble SSL-ART model, which is denoted as WESSL-ART. Every ensemble member, i.e., SSL-ART, assigns {\color{black}a different weight} to each class based on its performance pertaining to the corresponding class. The aim is to mitigate the effects of training data sequences on all SSL-ART members and improve the overall performance of WESSL-ART. The experimental results on eighteen benchmark data sets, three artificially generated data sets, and a real-world case study indicate the benefits of the proposed SSL-ART and WESSL-ART models for tackling pattern classification problems.

Gas source localization (GSL) with an autonomous robot is a problem with many prospective applications, from finding pipe leaks to emergency-response scenarios. In this work, we present a new method to perform GSL in realistic indoor environments, featuring obstacles and turbulent flow. Given the highly complex relationship between the source position and the measurements available to the robot (the single-point gas concentration, and the wind vector) we propose an observation model that derives from contrasting the online, real-time simulation of the gas dispersion from any candidate source localization against a gas concentration map built from sensor readings. To account for a convenient and grounded integration of both into a probabilistic estimation framework, we introduce the concept of probabilistic gas-hit maps, which provide a higher level of abstraction to model the time-dependent nature of gas dispersion. Results from both simulated and real experiments show the capabilities of our current proposal to deal with source localization in complex indoor environments.

Recently, reward-conditioned reinforcement learning (RCRL) has gained popularity due to its simplicity, flexibility, and off-policy nature. However, we will show that current RCRL approaches are fundamentally limited and fail to address two critical challenges of RCRL -- improving generalization on high reward-to-go (RTG) inputs, and avoiding out-of-distribution (OOD) RTG queries during testing time. To address these challenges when training vanilla RCRL architectures, we propose Bayesian Reparameterized RCRL (BR-RCRL), a novel set of inductive biases for RCRL inspired by Bayes' theorem. BR-RCRL removes a core obstacle preventing vanilla RCRL from generalizing on high RTG inputs -- a tendency that the model treats different RTG inputs as independent values, which we term ``RTG Independence". BR-RCRL also allows us to design an accompanying adaptive inference method, which maximizes total returns while avoiding OOD queries that yield unpredictable behaviors in vanilla RCRL methods. We show that BR-RCRL achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Gym-Mujoco and Atari offline RL benchmarks, improving upon vanilla RCRL by up to 11%.

Statistical learning and logical reasoning are two major fields of AI expected to be unified for human-like machine intelligence. Most existing work considers how to combine existing logical and statistical systems. However, there is no theory of inference so far explaining how basic approaches to statistical learning and logical reasoning stem from a common principle. Inspired by the fact that much empirical work in neuroscience suggests Bayesian (or probabilistic generative) approaches to brain function including learning and reasoning, we here propose a simple Bayesian model of logical reasoning and statistical learning. The theory is statistically correct as it satisfies Kolmogorov's axioms, is consistent with both Fenstad's representation theorem and maximum likelihood estimation and performs exact Bayesian inference with a linear-time complexity. The theory is logically correct as it is a data-driven generalisation of uncertain reasoning from consistency, possibility, inconsistency and impossibility. The theory is correct in terms of machine learning as its solution to generation and prediction tasks on the MNIST dataset is not only empirically reasonable but also theoretically correct against the K nearest neighbour method. We simply model how data causes symbolic knowledge in terms of its satisfiability in formal logic. Symbolic reasoning emerges as a result of the process of going the causality forwards and backwards. The forward and backward processes correspond to an interpretation and inverse interpretation in formal logic, respectively. The inverse interpretation differentiates our work from the mainstream often referred to as inverse entailment, inverse deduction or inverse resolution. The perspective gives new insights into learning and reasoning towards human-like machine intelligence.

Sparse joint shift (SJS) was recently proposed as a tractable model for general dataset shift which may cause changes to the marginal distributions of features and labels as well as the posterior probabilities and the class-conditional feature distributions. Fitting SJS for a target dataset without label observations may produce valid predictions of labels and estimates of class prior probabilities. We present new results on the transmission of SJS from sets of features to larger sets of features, a conditional correction formula for the class posterior probabilities under the target distribution, identifiability of SJS, and the relationship between SJS and covariate shift. In addition, we point out inconsistencies in the algorithms which were proposed for estimating the characteristics of SJS, as they could hamper the search for optimal solutions.