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 Uncertainty


Wasserstein Gaussianization and Efficient Variational Bayes for Robust Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood (BSL) method is a widely-used tool for likelihood-free Bayesian inference. This method assumes that some summary statistics are normally distributed, which can be incorrect in many applications. We propose a transformation, called the Wasserstein Gaussianization transformation, that uses a Wasserstein gradient flow to approximately transform the distribution of the summary statistics into a Gaussian distribution. BSL also implicitly requires compatibility between simulated summary statistics under the working model and the observed summary statistics. A robust BSL variant which achieves this has been developed in the recent literature. We combine the Wasserstein Gaussianization transformation with robust BSL, and an efficient Variational Bayes procedure for posterior approximation, to develop a highly efficient and reliable approximate Bayesian inference method for likelihood-free problems.


Biological Sequence Design with GFlowNets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Design of de novo biological sequences with desired properties, like protein and DNA sequences, often involves an active loop with several rounds of molecule ideation and expensive wet-lab evaluations. These experiments can consist of multiple stages, with increasing levels of precision and cost of evaluation, where candidates are filtered. This makes the diversity of proposed candidates a key consideration in the ideation phase. In this work, we propose an active learning algorithm leveraging epistemic uncertainty estimation and the recently proposed GFlowNets as a generator of diverse candidate solutions, with the objective to obtain a diverse batch of useful (as defined by some utility function, for example, the predicted anti-microbial activity of a peptide) and informative candidates after each round. We also propose a scheme to incorporate existing labeled datasets of candidates, in addition to a reward function, to speed up learning in GFlowNets. We present empirical results on several biological sequence design tasks, and we find that our method generates more diverse and novel batches with high scoring candidates compared to existing approaches.


Adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Bayesian inference usually requires running potentially costly inference procedures separately for every new observation. In contrast, the idea of amortized Bayesian inference is to initially invest computational cost in training an inference network on simulated data, which can subsequently be used to rapidly perform inference (i.e., to return estimates of posterior distributions) for new observations. This approach has been applied to many real-world models in the sciences and engineering, but it is unclear how robust the approach is to adversarial perturbations in the observed data. Here, we study the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference, focusing on simulation-based estimation of multi-dimensional posterior distributions. We show that almost unrecognizable, targeted perturbations of the observations can lead to drastic changes in the predicted posterior and highly unrealistic posterior predictive samples, across several benchmark tasks and a real-world example from neuroscience. We propose a computationally efficient regularization scheme based on penalizing the Fisher information of the conditional density estimator, and show how it improves the adversarial robustness of amortized Bayesian inference.


Multiclass classification for multidimensional functional data through deep neural networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The intrinsically infinite-dimensional features of the functional observations over multidimensional domains render the standard classification methods effectively inapplicable. To address this problem, we introduce a novel multiclass functional deep neural network (mfDNN) classifier as an innovative data mining and classification tool. Specifically, we consider sparse deep neural network architecture with rectifier linear unit (ReLU) activation function and minimize the cross-entropy loss in the multiclass classification setup. This neural network architecture allows us to employ modern computational tools in the implementation. The convergence rates of the misclassification risk functions are also derived for both fully observed and discretely observed multidimensional functional data. We demonstrate the performance of mfDNN on simulated data and several benchmark datasets from different application domains.


An Improved Variational Approximate Posterior for the Deep Wishart Process

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep kernel processes are a recently introduced class of deep Bayesian models that have the flexibility of neural networks, but work entirely with Gram matrices. They operate by alternately sampling a Gram matrix from a distribution over positive semi-definite matrices, and applying a deterministic transformation. When the distribution is chosen to be Wishart, the model is called a deep Wishart process (DWP). This particular model is of interest because its prior is equivalent to a deep Gaussian process (DGP) prior, but at the same time it is invariant to rotational symmetries, leading to a simpler posterior distribution. Practical inference in the DWP was made possible in recent work ("A variational approximate posterior for the deep Wishart process" Ober and Aitchison 2021a) where the authors used a generalisation of the Bartlett decomposition of the Wishart distribution as the variational approximate posterior. However, predictive performance in that paper was less impressive than one might expect, with the DWP only beating a DGP on a few of the UCI datasets used for comparison. In this paper, we show that further generalising their distribution to allow linear combinations of rows and columns in the Bartlett decomposition results in better predictive performance, while incurring negligible additional computation cost.


Generalized Expectation Maximization Framework for Blind Image Super Resolution

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Learning-based methods for blind single image super resolution (SISR) conduct the restoration by a learned mapping between high-resolution (HR) images and their low-resolution (LR) counterparts degraded with arbitrary blur kernels. However, these methods mostly require an independent step to estimate the blur kernel, leading to error accumulation between steps. We propose an end-to-end learning framework for the blind SISR problem, which enables image restoration within a unified Bayesian framework with either full- or semi-supervision. The proposed method, namely SREMN, integrates learning techniques into the generalized expectation-maximization (GEM) algorithm and infers HR images from the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Extensive experiments show the superiority of the proposed method with comparison to existing work and novelty in semi-supervised learning.


Variational Bayesian Framework for Advanced Image Generation with Domain-Related Variables

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Deep generative models (DGMs) and their conditional counterparts provide a powerful ability for general-purpose generative modeling of data distributions. However, it remains challenging for existing methods to address advanced conditional generative problems without annotations, which can enable multiple applications like image-to-image translation and image editing. We present a unified Bayesian framework for such problems, which introduces an inference stage on latent variables within the learning process. In particular, we propose a variational Bayesian image translation network (VBITN) that enables multiple image translation and editing tasks. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of our method on unsupervised image-to-image translation, and demonstrate the novel advanced capabilities for semantic editing and mixed domain translation.


Improving Heterogeneous Model Reuse by Density Estimation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

This paper studies multiparty learning, aiming to learn a model using the private data of different participants. Model reuse is a promising solution for multiparty learning, assuming that a local model has been trained for each party. Considering the potential sample selection bias among different parties, some heterogeneous model reuse approaches have been developed. However, although pre-trained local classifiers are utilized in these approaches, the characteristics of the local data are not well exploited. This motivates us to estimate the density of local data and design an auxiliary model together with the local classifiers for reuse. To address the scenarios where some local models are not well pre-trained, we further design a multiparty cross-entropy loss for calibration. Upon existing works, we address a challenging problem of heterogeneous model reuse from a decision theory perspective and take advantage of recent advances in density estimation. Experimental results on both synthetic and benchmark data demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.


Reanalyzing L2 Preposition Learning with Bayesian Mixed Effects and a Pretrained Language Model

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We use both Bayesian and neural models to dissect a data set of Chinese learners' pre- and post-interventional responses to two tests measuring their understanding of English prepositions. The results mostly replicate previous findings from frequentist analyses and newly reveal crucial interactions between student ability, task type, and stimulus sentence. Given the sparsity of the data as well as high diversity among learners, the Bayesian method proves most useful; but we also see potential in using language model probabilities as predictors of grammaticality and learnability.


Dynamics-Adaptive Continual Reinforcement Learning via Progressive Contextualization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

A key challenge of continual reinforcement learning (CRL) in dynamic environments is to promptly adapt the RL agent's behavior as the environment changes over its lifetime, while minimizing the catastrophic forgetting of the learned information. To address this challenge, in this article, we propose DaCoRL, i.e., dynamics-adaptive continual RL. DaCoRL learns a context-conditioned policy using progressive contextualization, which incrementally clusters a stream of stationary tasks in the dynamic environment into a series of contexts and opts for an expandable multihead neural network to approximate the policy. Specifically, we define a set of tasks with similar dynamics as an environmental context and formalize context inference as a procedure of online Bayesian infinite Gaussian mixture clustering on environment features, resorting to online Bayesian inference to infer the posterior distribution over contexts. Under the assumption of a Chinese restaurant process prior, this technique can accurately classify the current task as a previously seen context or instantiate a new context as needed without relying on any external indicator to signal environmental changes in advance. Furthermore, we employ an expandable multihead neural network whose output layer is synchronously expanded with the newly instantiated context, and a knowledge distillation regularization term for retaining the performance on learned tasks. As a general framework that can be coupled with various deep RL algorithms, DaCoRL features consistent superiority over existing methods in terms of the stability, overall performance and generalization ability, as verified by extensive experiments on several robot navigation and MuJoCo locomotion tasks.