Uncertainty
Generalized Expectation Maximization Framework for Blind Image Super Resolution
Li, Yuxiao, Wang, Zhiming, Shen, Yuan
Learning-based methods for blind single image super resolution (SISR) conduct the restoration by a learned mapping between high-resolution (HR) images and their low-resolution (LR) counterparts degraded with arbitrary blur kernels. However, these methods mostly require an independent step to estimate the blur kernel, leading to error accumulation between steps. We propose an end-to-end learning framework for the blind SISR problem, which enables image restoration within a unified Bayesian framework with either full- or semi-supervision. The proposed method, namely SREMN, integrates learning techniques into the generalized expectation-maximization (GEM) algorithm and infers HR images from the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). Extensive experiments show the superiority of the proposed method with comparison to existing work and novelty in semi-supervised learning.
Variational Bayesian Framework for Advanced Image Generation with Domain-Related Variables
Li, Yuxiao, Mazuelas, Santiago, Shen, Yuan
Deep generative models (DGMs) and their conditional counterparts provide a powerful ability for general-purpose generative modeling of data distributions. However, it remains challenging for existing methods to address advanced conditional generative problems without annotations, which can enable multiple applications like image-to-image translation and image editing. We present a unified Bayesian framework for such problems, which introduces an inference stage on latent variables within the learning process. In particular, we propose a variational Bayesian image translation network (VBITN) that enables multiple image translation and editing tasks. Comprehensive experiments show the effectiveness of our method on unsupervised image-to-image translation, and demonstrate the novel advanced capabilities for semantic editing and mixed domain translation.
Improving Heterogeneous Model Reuse by Density Estimation
Tang, Anke, Luo, Yong, Hu, Han, He, Fengxiang, Su, Kehua, Du, Bo, Chen, Yixin, Tao, Dacheng
This paper studies multiparty learning, aiming to learn a model using the private data of different participants. Model reuse is a promising solution for multiparty learning, assuming that a local model has been trained for each party. Considering the potential sample selection bias among different parties, some heterogeneous model reuse approaches have been developed. However, although pre-trained local classifiers are utilized in these approaches, the characteristics of the local data are not well exploited. This motivates us to estimate the density of local data and design an auxiliary model together with the local classifiers for reuse. To address the scenarios where some local models are not well pre-trained, we further design a multiparty cross-entropy loss for calibration. Upon existing works, we address a challenging problem of heterogeneous model reuse from a decision theory perspective and take advantage of recent advances in density estimation. Experimental results on both synthetic and benchmark data demonstrate the superiority of the proposed method.
Reanalyzing L2 Preposition Learning with Bayesian Mixed Effects and a Pretrained Language Model
Prange, Jakob, Wong, Man Ho Ivy
We use both Bayesian and neural models to dissect a data set of Chinese learners' pre- and post-interventional responses to two tests measuring their understanding of English prepositions. The results mostly replicate previous findings from frequentist analyses and newly reveal crucial interactions between student ability, task type, and stimulus sentence. Given the sparsity of the data as well as high diversity among learners, the Bayesian method proves most useful; but we also see potential in using language model probabilities as predictors of grammaticality and learnability.
Dynamics-Adaptive Continual Reinforcement Learning via Progressive Contextualization
Zhang, Tiantian, Lin, Zichuan, Wang, Yuxing, Ye, Deheng, Fu, Qiang, Yang, Wei, Wang, Xueqian, Liang, Bin, Yuan, Bo, Li, Xiu
A key challenge of continual reinforcement learning (CRL) in dynamic environments is to promptly adapt the RL agent's behavior as the environment changes over its lifetime, while minimizing the catastrophic forgetting of the learned information. To address this challenge, in this article, we propose DaCoRL, i.e., dynamics-adaptive continual RL. DaCoRL learns a context-conditioned policy using progressive contextualization, which incrementally clusters a stream of stationary tasks in the dynamic environment into a series of contexts and opts for an expandable multihead neural network to approximate the policy. Specifically, we define a set of tasks with similar dynamics as an environmental context and formalize context inference as a procedure of online Bayesian infinite Gaussian mixture clustering on environment features, resorting to online Bayesian inference to infer the posterior distribution over contexts. Under the assumption of a Chinese restaurant process prior, this technique can accurately classify the current task as a previously seen context or instantiate a new context as needed without relying on any external indicator to signal environmental changes in advance. Furthermore, we employ an expandable multihead neural network whose output layer is synchronously expanded with the newly instantiated context, and a knowledge distillation regularization term for retaining the performance on learned tasks. As a general framework that can be coupled with various deep RL algorithms, DaCoRL features consistent superiority over existing methods in terms of the stability, overall performance and generalization ability, as verified by extensive experiments on several robot navigation and MuJoCo locomotion tasks.
Multi-View Knowledge Distillation from Crowd Annotations for Out-of-Domain Generalization
Wright, Dustin, Augenstein, Isabelle
Selecting an effective training signal for tasks in natural language processing is difficult: expert annotations are expensive, and crowd-sourced annotations may not be reliable. At the same time, recent work in NLP has demonstrated that learning from a distribution over labels acquired from crowd annotations can be effective. However, there are many ways to acquire such a distribution, and the performance allotted by any one method can fluctuate based on the task and the amount of available crowd annotations, making it difficult to know a priori which distribution is best. This paper systematically analyzes this in the out-of-domain setting, adding to the NLP literature which has focused on in-domain evaluation, and proposes new methods for acquiring soft-labels from crowd-annotations by aggregating the distributions produced by existing methods. In particular, we propose to aggregate multiple-views of crowd annotations via temperature scaling and finding their Jensen-Shannon centroid. We demonstrate that these aggregation methods lead to the most consistent performance across four NLP tasks on out-of-domain test sets, mitigating fluctuations in performance from the individual distributions. Additionally, aggregation results in the most consistently well-calibrated uncertainty estimation. We argue that aggregating different views of crowd-annotations is an effective and minimal intervention to acquire soft-labels which induce robust classifiers despite the inconsistency of the individual soft-labeling methods.
Granger Causal Chain Discovery for Sepsis-Associated Derangements via Continuous-Time Hawkes Processes
Wei, Song, Xie, Yao, Josef, Christopher S., Kamaleswaran, Rishikesan
Modern health care systems are conducting continuous, automated surveillance of the electronic medical record (EMR) to identify adverse events with increasing frequency; however, many events such as sepsis do not have elucidated prodromes (i.e., event chains) that can be used to identify and intercept the adverse event early in its course. Clinically relevant and interpretable results require a framework that can (i) infer temporal interactions across multiple patient features found in EMR data (e.g., Labs, vital signs, etc.) and (ii) identify patterns that precede and are specific to an impending adverse event (e.g., sepsis). In this work, we propose a linear multivariate Hawkes process model, coupled with ReLU link function, to recover a Granger Causal (GC) graph with both exciting and inhibiting effects. We develop a scalable two-phase gradient-based method to obtain a maximum surrogate-likelihood estimator, which is shown to be effective via extensive numerical simulation. Our method is subsequently extended to a data set of patients admitted to Grady hospital system in Atlanta, GA, USA, where the estimated GC graph identifies several highly interpretable GC chains that precede sepsis. The code is available at \url{https://github.com/SongWei-GT/two-phase-MHP}.
On double-descent in uncertainty quantification in overparametrized models
Clartรฉ, Lucas, Loureiro, Bruno, Krzakala, Florent, Zdeborovรก, Lenka
Uncertainty quantification is a central challenge in reliable and trustworthy machine learning. Naive measures such as last-layer scores are well-known to yield overconfident estimates in the context of overparametrized neural networks. Several methods, ranging from temperature scaling to different Bayesian treatments of neural networks, have been proposed to mitigate overconfidence, most often supported by the numerical observation that they yield better calibrated uncertainty measures. In this work, we provide a sharp comparison between popular uncertainty measures for binary classification in a mathematically tractable model for overparametrized neural networks: the random features model. We discuss a trade-off between classification accuracy and calibration, unveiling a double descent like behavior in the calibration curve of optimally regularized estimators as a function of overparametrization. This is in contrast with the empirical Bayes method, which we show to be well calibrated in our setting despite the higher generalization error and overparametrization.
A Rational Model of Dimension-reduced Human Categorization
Existing models in cognitive science typically assume human categorization as graded generalization behavior in a multidimensional psychological space. However, category representations in these models may suffer from the curse of dimensionality in a natural setting. People generally rely on a tractable yet sufficient set of features to understand the complex environment. We propose a rational model of categorization based on a hierarchical mixture of probabilistic principal components, that simultaneously learn category representations and an economical collection of features. The model captures dimensional biases in human categorization and supports zero-shot learning. We further exploit a generative process within a low-dimensional latent space to provide a better account of categorization with high-dimensional stimuli.
Logical Entity Representation in Knowledge-Graphs for Differentiable Rule Learning
Han, Chi, He, Qizheng, Yu, Charles, Du, Xinya, Tong, Hanghang, Ji, Heng
Probabilistic logical rule learning has shown great strength in logical rule mining and knowledge graph completion. It learns logical rules to predict missing edges by reasoning on existing edges in the knowledge graph. However, previous efforts have largely been limited to only modeling chain-like Horn clauses such as $R_1(x,z)\land R_2(z,y)\Rightarrow H(x,y)$. This formulation overlooks additional contextual information from neighboring sub-graphs of entity variables $x$, $y$ and $z$. Intuitively, there is a large gap here, as local sub-graphs have been found to provide important information for knowledge graph completion. Inspired by these observations, we propose Logical Entity RePresentation (LERP) to encode contextual information of entities in the knowledge graph. A LERP is designed as a vector of probabilistic logical functions on the entity's neighboring sub-graph. It is an interpretable representation while allowing for differentiable optimization. We can then incorporate LERP into probabilistic logical rule learning to learn more expressive rules. Empirical results demonstrate that with LERP, our model outperforms other rule learning methods in knowledge graph completion and is comparable or even superior to state-of-the-art black-box methods. Moreover, we find that our model can discover a more expressive family of logical rules. LERP can also be further combined with embedding learning methods like TransE to make it more interpretable.