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 Uncertainty


Domain-Agnostic Batch Bayesian Optimization with Diverse Constraints via Bayesian Quadrature

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Real-world optimisation problems often feature complex combinations of (1) diverse constraints, (2) discrete and mixed spaces, and are (3) highly parallelisable. (4) There are also cases where the objective function cannot be queried if unknown constraints are not satisfied, e.g. in drug discovery, safety on animal experiments (unknown constraints) must be established before human clinical trials (querying objective function) may proceed. However, most existing works target each of the above three problems in isolation and do not consider (4) unknown constraints with query rejection. For problems with diverse constraints and/or unconventional input spaces, it is difficult to apply these techniques as they are often mutually incompatible. We propose cSOBER, a domain-agnostic prudent parallel active sampler for Bayesian optimisation, based on SOBER of Adachi et al. (2023). We consider infeasibility under unknown constraints as a type of integration error that we can estimate. We propose a theoretically-driven approach that propagates such error as a tolerance in the quadrature precision that automatically balances exploitation and exploration with the expected rejection rate. Moreover, our method flexibly accommodates diverse constraints and/or discrete and mixed spaces via adaptive tolerance, including conventional zero-risk cases. We show that cSOBER outperforms competitive baselines on diverse real-world blackbox-constrained problems, including safety-constrained drug discovery, and human-relationship-aware team optimisation over graph-structured space.


Adaptivity Complexity for Causal Graph Discovery

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Causal discovery from interventional data is an important problem, where the task is to design an interventional strategy that learns the hidden ground truth causal graph $G(V,E)$ on $|V| = n$ nodes while minimizing the number of performed interventions. Most prior interventional strategies broadly fall into two categories: non-adaptive and adaptive. Non-adaptive strategies decide on a single fixed set of interventions to be performed while adaptive strategies can decide on which nodes to intervene on sequentially based on past interventions. While adaptive algorithms may use exponentially fewer interventions than their non-adaptive counterparts, there are practical concerns that constrain the amount of adaptivity allowed. Motivated by this trade-off, we study the problem of $r$-adaptivity, where the algorithm designer recovers the causal graph under a total of $r$ sequential rounds whilst trying to minimize the total number of interventions. For this problem, we provide a $r$-adaptive algorithm that achieves $O(\min\{r,\log n\} \cdot n^{1/\min\{r,\log n\}})$ approximation with respect to the verification number, a well-known lower bound for adaptive algorithms. Furthermore, for every $r$, we show that our approximation is tight. Our definition of $r$-adaptivity interpolates nicely between the non-adaptive ($r=1$) and fully adaptive ($r=n$) settings where our approximation simplifies to $O(n)$ and $O(\log n)$ respectively, matching the best-known approximation guarantees for both extremes. Our results also extend naturally to the bounded size interventions.


Ambiguity Meets Uncertainty: Investigating Uncertainty Estimation for Word Sense Disambiguation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Word sense disambiguation (WSD), which aims to determine an appropriate sense for a target word given its context, is crucial for natural language understanding. Existing supervised methods treat WSD as a classification task and have achieved remarkable performance. However, they ignore uncertainty estimation (UE) in the real-world setting, where the data is always noisy and out of distribution. This paper extensively studies UE on the benchmark designed for WSD. Specifically, we first compare four uncertainty scores for a state-of-the-art WSD model and verify that the conventional predictive probabilities obtained at the end of the model are inadequate to quantify uncertainty. Then, we examine the capability of capturing data and model uncertainties by the model with the selected UE score on well-designed test scenarios and discover that the model reflects data uncertainty satisfactorily but underestimates model uncertainty. Furthermore, we explore numerous lexical properties that intrinsically affect data uncertainty and provide a detailed analysis of four critical aspects: the syntactic category, morphology, sense granularity, and semantic relations. The code is available at https://github.com/RyanLiut/WSD-UE.


Unsupervised Discontinuous Constituency Parsing with Mildly Context-Sensitive Grammars

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study grammar induction with mildly context-sensitive grammars for unsupervised discontinuous parsing. Using the probabilistic linear context-free rewriting system (LCFRS) formalism, our approach fixes the rule structure in advance and focuses on parameter learning with maximum likelihood. To reduce the computational complexity of both parsing and parameter estimation, we restrict the grammar formalism to LCFRS-2 (i.e., binary LCFRS with fan-out two) and further discard rules that require O(n^6) time to parse, reducing inference to O(n^5). We find that using a large number of nonterminals is beneficial and thus make use of tensor decomposition-based rank-space dynamic programming with an embedding-based parameterization of rule probabilities to scale up the number of nonterminals. Experiments on German and Dutch show that our approach is able to induce linguistically meaningful trees with continuous and discontinuous structures


Condorcet Markets

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Within the classical Condorcet error model for collective binary decisions, we establish equivalence results between elections and markets, showing that the alternative that would be selected by weighed majority voting (under specific weighting schemes) corresponds to the alternative with highest price in the equilibrium of the market (under specific assumptions on the market type). This makes it possible to implement specific weighted majority elections, which are known to have superior truth-tracking performance, through information markets and, crucially, without needing to elicit voters' competences.


Monte Carlo inference for semiparametric Bayesian regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data transformations are essential for broad applicability of parametric regression models. However, for Bayesian analysis, joint inference of the transformation and model parameters typically involves restrictive parametric transformations or nonparametric representations that are computationally inefficient and cumbersome for implementation and theoretical analysis, which limits their usability in practice. This paper introduces a simple, general, and efficient strategy for joint posterior inference of an unknown transformation and all regression model parameters. The proposed approach directly targets the posterior distribution of the transformation by linking it with the marginal distributions of the independent and dependent variables, and then deploys a Bayesian nonparametric model via the Bayesian bootstrap. Crucially, this approach delivers (1) joint posterior consistency under general conditions, including multiple model misspecifications, and (2) efficient Monte Carlo (not Markov chain Monte Carlo) inference for the transformation and all parameters for important special cases. These tools apply across a variety of data domains, including real-valued, integer-valued, compactly-supported, and positive data. Simulation studies and an empirical application demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of this strategy for semiparametric Bayesian analysis with linear models, quantile regression, and Gaussian processes.


Statistical relational learning and neuro-symbolic AI: what does first-order logic offer?

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this paper, our aim is to briefly survey and articulate the logical and philosophical foundations of using (first-order) logic to represent (probabilistic) knowledge in a non-technical fashion. Our motivation is three fold. First, for machine learning researchers unaware of why the research community cares about relational representations, this article can serve as a gentle introduction. Second, for logical experts who are newcomers to the learning area, such an article can help in navigating the differences between finite vs infinite, and subjective probabilities vs random-world semantics. Finally, for researchers from statistical relational learning and neuro-symbolic AI, who are usually embedded in finite worlds with subjective probabilities, appreciating what infinite domains and random-world semantics brings to the table is of utmost theoretical import.


Protein Discovery with Discrete Walk-Jump Sampling

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We resolve difficulties in training and sampling from a discrete generative model by learning a smoothed energy function, sampling from the smoothed data manifold with Langevin Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), and projecting back to the true data manifold with one-step denoising. Our Discrete Walk-Jump Sampling formalism combines the maximum likelihood training of an energy-based model and improved sample quality of a score-based model, while simplifying training and sampling by requiring only a single noise level. We evaluate the robustness of our approach on generative modeling of antibody proteins and introduce the distributional conformity score to benchmark protein generative models. By optimizing and sampling from our models for the proposed distributional conformity score, 97-100% of generated samples are successfully expressed and purified and 35% of functional designs show equal or improved binding affinity compared to known functional antibodies on the first attempt in a single round of laboratory experiments. We also report the first demonstration of long-run fast-mixing MCMC chains where diverse antibody protein classes are visited in a single MCMC chain.


Negotiated Reasoning: On Provably Addressing Relative Over-Generalization

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over-generalization is a thorny issue in cognitive science, where people may become overly cautious due to past experiences. Agents in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) also have been found to suffer relative over-generalization (RO) as people do and stuck to sub-optimal cooperation. Recent methods have shown that assigning reasoning ability to agents can mitigate RO algorithmically and empirically, but there has been a lack of theoretical understanding of RO, let alone designing provably RO-free methods. This paper first proves that RO can be avoided when the MARL method satisfies a consistent reasoning requirement under certain conditions. Then we introduce a novel reasoning framework, called negotiated reasoning, that first builds the connection between reasoning and RO with theoretical justifications. After that, we propose an instantiated algorithm, Stein variational negotiated reasoning (SVNR), which uses Stein variational gradient descent to derive a negotiation policy that provably avoids RO in MARL under maximum entropy policy iteration. The method is further parameterized with neural networks for amortized learning, making computation efficient. Numerical experiments on many RO-challenged environments demonstrate the superiority and efficiency of SVNR compared to state-of-the-art methods in addressing RO.


Entropy-based Training Methods for Scalable Neural Implicit Sampler

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Efficiently sampling from un-normalized target distributions is a fundamental problem in scientific computing and machine learning. Traditional approaches like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) guarantee asymptotically unbiased samples from such distributions but suffer from computational inefficiency, particularly when dealing with high-dimensional targets, as they require numerous iterations to generate a batch of samples. In this paper, we propose an efficient and scalable neural implicit sampler that overcomes these limitations. Our sampler can generate large batches of samples with low computational costs by leveraging a neural transformation that directly maps easily sampled latent vectors to target samples without the need for iterative procedures. To train the neural implicit sampler, we introduce two novel methods: the KL training method and the Fisher training method. The former minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence, while the latter minimizes the Fisher divergence. By employing these training methods, we effectively optimize the neural implicit sampler to capture the desired target distribution. To demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency, and scalability of our proposed samplers, we evaluate them on three sampling benchmarks with different scales. These benchmarks include sampling from 2D targets, Bayesian inference, and sampling from high-dimensional energy-based models (EBMs). Notably, in the experiment involving high-dimensional EBMs, our sampler produces samples that are comparable to those generated by MCMC-based methods while being more than 100 times more efficient, showcasing the efficiency of our neural sampler. We believe that the theoretical and empirical contributions presented in this work will stimulate further research on developing efficient samplers for various applications beyond the ones explored in this study.