Planning multi-contact motions in a receding horizon fashion requires a value function to guide the planning with respect to the future, e.g., building momentum to traverse large obstacles. Traditionally, the value function is approximated by computing trajectories in a prediction horizon (never executed) that foresees the future beyond the execution horizon. However, given the non-convex dynamics of multi-contact motions, this approach is computationally expensive. To enable online Receding Horizon Planning (RHP) of multi-contact motions, we find efficient approximations of the value function. Specifically, we propose a trajectory-based and a learning-based approach. In the former, namely RHP with Multiple Levels of Model Fidelity, we approximate the value function by computing the prediction horizon with a convex relaxed model. In the latter, namely Locally-Guided RHP, we learn an oracle to predict local objectives for locomotion tasks, and we use these local objectives to construct local value functions for guiding a short-horizon RHP. We evaluate both approaches in simulation by planning centroidal trajectories of a humanoid robot walking on moderate slopes, and on large slopes where the robot cannot maintain static balance. Our results show that locally-guided RHP achieves the best computation efficiency (95\%-98.6\% cycles converge online). This computation advantage enables us to demonstrate online receding horizon planning of our real-world humanoid robot Talos walking in dynamic environments that change on-the-fly.

Discrete distribution estimation, i.e., density estimation over discrete domains, is a fundamental problem in Statistics, with a rich history (see, e.g., [9, 10] for an overview and further references). In this work, we address a simple yet surprisingly ill-understood aspect of this question: what is sample complexity of estimating an arbitrary discrete distribution in Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence with vanishing probability of error? To describe the problem further, a few definitions are in order.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

Autonomous robots need to learn the categories of various places by exploring their environments and interacting with users. However, preparing training datasets with linguistic instructions from users is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Moreover, effective exploration is essential for appropriate concept formation and rapid environmental coverage. To address this issue, we propose an active inference method, referred to as spatial concept formation with information gain-based active exploration (SpCoAE) that combines sequential Bayesian inference using particle filters and information gain-based destination determination in a probabilistic generative model. This study interprets the robot's action as a selection of destinations to ask the user, `What kind of place is this?' in the context of active inference. This study provides insights into the technical aspects of the proposed method, including active perception and exploration by the robot, and how the method can enable mobile robots to learn spatial concepts through active exploration. Our experiment demonstrated the effectiveness of the SpCoAE in efficiently determining a destination for learning appropriate spatial concepts in home environments.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) encode a lot of information about a particular distribution in their structure. However, compute required to infer these structures is typically super-exponential in the number of variables, as inference requires a sweep of a combinatorially large space of potential structures. That is, until recent advances made it possible to search this space using a differentiable metric, drastically reducing search time. While this technique -- named NOTEARS -- is widely considered a seminal work in DAG-discovery, it concedes an important property in favour of differentiability: transportability. To be transportable, the structures discovered on one dataset must apply to another dataset from the same domain. We introduce D-Struct which recovers transportability in the discovered structures through a novel architecture and loss function while remaining fully differentiable. Because D-Struct remains differentiable, our method can be easily adopted in existing differentiable architectures, as was previously done with NOTEARS. In our experiments, we empirically validate D-Struct with respect to edge accuracy and structural Hamming distance in a variety of settings.

Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding variables -- causal parents of both the treatment and the outcome -- are included as covariates. Unfortunately, given observational data alone, we cannot know with certainty that this criterion is satisfied. Sensitivity analyses provide principled ways to give bounds on causal estimates when confounding variables are hidden. While much attention is focused on sensitivity analyses for discrete-valued treatments, much less is paid to continuous-valued treatments. We present novel methodology to bound both average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment-effect estimates when they cannot be point identified due to hidden confounding. A semi-synthetic benchmark on multiple datasets shows our method giving tighter coverage of the true dose-response curve than a recently proposed continuous sensitivity model and baselines. Finally, we apply our method to a real-world observational case study to demonstrate the value of identifying dose-dependent causal effects.

We develop a principled approach to end-to-end learning in stochastic optimization. First, we show that the standard end-to-end learning algorithm admits a Bayesian interpretation and trains a posterior Bayes action map. Building on the insights of this analysis, we then propose new end-to-end learning algorithms for training decision maps that output solutions of empirical risk minimization and distributionally robust optimization problems, two dominant modeling paradigms in optimization under uncertainty. Numerical results for a synthetic newsvendor problem illustrate the key differences between alternative training schemes. We also investigate an economic dispatch problem based on real data to showcase the impact of the neural network architecture of the decision maps on their test performance.

This paper introduces a statistical model and corresponding sequential Bayesian estimation method for terrain-based navigation using side-scan sonar (SSS) data. The presented approach relies on slant range measurements extracted from the received ping of a SSS. In particular, incorporating slant range measurements to landmarks for navigation constrains the location and altitude error of an autonomous platform in GPS-denied environments. The proposed navigation filter consists of a prediction step based on the unscented transform and an update step that relies on particle filtering. The SSS measurement model aims to capture the highly nonlinear nature of SSS data while maintaining reasonable computational requirements in the particle-based update step. For our numerical results, we assume a scenario with a surface vehicle that performs SSS and compass measurements. The simulated scenario is consistent with our current hardware platform. We also discuss how the proposed method can be extended to autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in a straightforward way and why the combination of SSS sensor and compass is particularly suitable for small autonomous platforms.

Doubly-stochastic point processes model the occurrence of events over a spatial domain as an inhomogeneous Poisson process conditioned on the realization of a random intensity function. They are flexible tools for capturing spatial heterogeneity and dependence. However, implementations of doubly-stochastic spatial models are computationally demanding, often have limited theoretical guarantee, and/or rely on restrictive assumptions. We propose a penalized regression method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic point processes that is computationally efficient and does not require a parametric form or stationarity of the underlying intensity. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator, and develop a covariance estimator that leads to a conservative statistical inference procedure. A simulation study shows the validity of our approach under less restrictive assumptions on the data generating mechanism, and an application to Seattle crime data demonstrates better prediction accuracy compared with existing alternatives.

Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the \emph{data separation function}. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to $1$ in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of $n$ samples in $d$ dimension as $n/\sqrt{d}\rightarrow 0$. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes \emph{kinetic optimal} as $n/\sqrt{d}\rightarrow 0$. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.