Inferring causal effects of continuous-valued treatments from observational data is a crucial task promising to better inform policy- and decision-makers. A critical assumption needed to identify these effects is that all confounding variables -- causal parents of both the treatment and the outcome -- are included as covariates. Unfortunately, given observational data alone, we cannot know with certainty that this criterion is satisfied. Sensitivity analyses provide principled ways to give bounds on causal estimates when confounding variables are hidden. While much attention is focused on sensitivity analyses for discrete-valued treatments, much less is paid to continuous-valued treatments. We present novel methodology to bound both average and conditional average continuous-valued treatment-effect estimates when they cannot be point identified due to hidden confounding. A semi-synthetic benchmark on multiple datasets shows our method giving tighter coverage of the true dose-response curve than a recently proposed continuous sensitivity model and baselines. Finally, we apply our method to a real-world observational case study to demonstrate the value of identifying dose-dependent causal effects.

We develop a principled approach to end-to-end learning in stochastic optimization. First, we show that the standard end-to-end learning algorithm admits a Bayesian interpretation and trains a posterior Bayes action map. Building on the insights of this analysis, we then propose new end-to-end learning algorithms for training decision maps that output solutions of empirical risk minimization and distributionally robust optimization problems, two dominant modeling paradigms in optimization under uncertainty. Numerical results for a synthetic newsvendor problem illustrate the key differences between alternative training schemes. We also investigate an economic dispatch problem based on real data to showcase the impact of the neural network architecture of the decision maps on their test performance.

This paper introduces a statistical model and corresponding sequential Bayesian estimation method for terrain-based navigation using side-scan sonar (SSS) data. The presented approach relies on slant range measurements extracted from the received ping of a SSS. In particular, incorporating slant range measurements to landmarks for navigation constrains the location and altitude error of an autonomous platform in GPS-denied environments. The proposed navigation filter consists of a prediction step based on the unscented transform and an update step that relies on particle filtering. The SSS measurement model aims to capture the highly nonlinear nature of SSS data while maintaining reasonable computational requirements in the particle-based update step. For our numerical results, we assume a scenario with a surface vehicle that performs SSS and compass measurements. The simulated scenario is consistent with our current hardware platform. We also discuss how the proposed method can be extended to autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) in a straightforward way and why the combination of SSS sensor and compass is particularly suitable for small autonomous platforms.

Doubly-stochastic point processes model the occurrence of events over a spatial domain as an inhomogeneous Poisson process conditioned on the realization of a random intensity function. They are flexible tools for capturing spatial heterogeneity and dependence. However, implementations of doubly-stochastic spatial models are computationally demanding, often have limited theoretical guarantee, and/or rely on restrictive assumptions. We propose a penalized regression method for estimating covariate effects in doubly-stochastic point processes that is computationally efficient and does not require a parametric form or stationarity of the underlying intensity. We establish the consistency and asymptotic normality of the proposed estimator, and develop a covariance estimator that leads to a conservative statistical inference procedure. A simulation study shows the validity of our approach under less restrictive assumptions on the data generating mechanism, and an application to Seattle crime data demonstrates better prediction accuracy compared with existing alternatives.

Recent successful generative models are trained by fitting a neural network to an a-priori defined tractable probability density path taking noise to training examples. In this paper we investigate the space of Gaussian probability paths, which includes diffusion paths as an instance, and look for an optimal member in some useful sense. In particular, minimizing the Kinetic Energy (KE) of a path is known to make particles' trajectories simple, hence easier to sample, and empirically improve performance in terms of likelihood of unseen data and sample generation quality. We investigate Kinetic Optimal (KO) Gaussian paths and offer the following observations: (i) We show the KE takes a simplified form on the space of Gaussian paths, where the data is incorporated only through a single, one dimensional scalar function, called the \emph{data separation function}. (ii) We characterize the KO solutions with a one dimensional ODE. (iii) We approximate data-dependent KO paths by approximating the data separation function and minimizing the KE. (iv) We prove that the data separation function converges to $1$ in the general case of arbitrary normalized dataset consisting of $n$ samples in $d$ dimension as $n/\sqrt{d}\rightarrow 0$. A consequence of this result is that the Conditional Optimal Transport (Cond-OT) path becomes \emph{kinetic optimal} as $n/\sqrt{d}\rightarrow 0$. We further support this theory with empirical experiments on ImageNet.

We introduce a principled study on establishing Gaussian processes (GPs) with inputs on the product of directional manifolds. A circular kernel is first presented according to the von Mises distribution. Based thereon, the so-called hypertoroidal von Mises (HvM) kernel is proposed to establish GPs on hypertori with consideration of correlational circular components. The proposed HvM kernel is demonstrated with multi-output GP regression for learning vector-valued functions defined on hypertori using the intrinsic coregionalization model. Analytical derivatives in hyperparameter optimization are provided for runtime-critical applications. For evaluation, we synthesize a ranging-based sensor network and employ the HvM-based GPs for data-driven recursive localization. The numerical results show that the HvM-based GP achieves superior tracking accuracy compared to parametric model and GPs based on conventional kernel designs.

We study preferential Bayesian optimization (BO) where reliable feedback is limited to pairwise comparison called duels. An important challenge in preferential BO, which uses the preferential Gaussian process (GP) model to represent flexible preference structure, is that the posterior distribution is a computationally intractable skew GP. The most widely used approach for preferential BO is Gaussian approximation, which ignores the skewness of the true posterior. Alternatively, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) based preferential BO is also proposed. In this work, we first verify the accuracy of Gaussian approximation, from which we reveal the critical problem that the predictive probability of duels can be inaccurate. This observation motivates us to improve the MCMC-based estimation for skew GP, for which we show the practical efficiency of Gibbs sampling and derive the low variance MC estimator. However, the computational time of MCMC can still be a bottleneck in practice. Towards building a more practical preferential BO, we develop a new method that achieves both high computational efficiency and low sample complexity, and then demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive numerical experiments.

To cope with real-world dynamics, an intelligent agent needs to incrementally acquire, update, accumulate, and exploit knowledge throughout its lifetime. This ability, known as continual learning, provides a foundation for AI systems to develop themselves adaptively. In a general sense, continual learning is explicitly limited by catastrophic forgetting, where learning a new task usually results in a dramatic performance degradation of the old tasks. Beyond this, increasingly numerous advances have emerged in recent years that largely extend the understanding and application of continual learning. The growing and widespread interest in this direction demonstrates its realistic significance as well as complexity. In this work, we present a comprehensive survey of continual learning, seeking to bridge the basic settings, theoretical foundations, representative methods, and practical applications. Based on existing theoretical and empirical results, we summarize the general objectives of continual learning as ensuring a proper stability-plasticity trade-off and an adequate intra/inter-task generalizability in the context of resource efficiency. Then we provide a state-of-the-art and elaborated taxonomy, extensively analyzing how representative strategies address continual learning, and how they are adapted to particular challenges in various applications. Through an in-depth discussion of promising directions, we believe that such a holistic perspective can greatly facilitate subsequent exploration in this field and beyond.

Conducting valid statistical analyses is challenging in the presence of missing-not-at-random (MNAR) data, where the missingness mechanism is dependent on the missing values themselves even conditioned on the observed data. Here, we consider a MNAR model that generalizes several prior popular MNAR models in two ways: first, it is less restrictive in terms of statistical independence assumptions imposed on the underlying joint data distribution, and second, it allows for all variables in the observed sample to have missing values. This MNAR model corresponds to a so-called criss-cross structure considered in the literature on graphical models of missing data that prevents nonparametric identification of the entire missing data model. Nonetheless, part of the complete-data distribution remains nonparametrically identifiable. By exploiting this fact and considering a rich class of exponential family distributions, we establish sufficient conditions for identification of the complete-data distribution as well as the entire missingness mechanism. We then propose methods for testing the independence restrictions encoded in such models using odds ratio as our parameter of interest. We adopt two semiparametric approaches for estimating the odds ratio parameter and establish the corresponding asymptotic theories: one involves maximizing a conditional likelihood with order statistics and the other uses estimating equations. The utility of our methods is illustrated via simulation studies.

Imitation learning (IL) has proven to be an effective method for learning good policies from expert demonstrations. Adversarial imitation learning (AIL), a subset of IL methods, is particularly promising, but its theoretical foundation in the presence of unknown transitions has yet to be fully developed. This paper explores the theoretical underpinnings of AIL in this context, where the stochastic and uncertain nature of environment transitions presents a challenge. We examine the expert sample complexity and interaction complexity required to recover good policies. To this end, we establish a framework connecting reward-free exploration and AIL, and propose an algorithm, MB-TAIL, that achieves the minimax optimal expert sample complexity of $\widetilde{O} (H^{3/2} |S|/\varepsilon)$ and interaction complexity of $\widetilde{O} (H^{3} |S|^2 |A|/\varepsilon^2)$. Here, $H$ represents the planning horizon, $|S|$ is the state space size, $|A|$ is the action space size, and $\varepsilon$ is the desired imitation gap. MB-TAIL is the first algorithm to achieve this level of expert sample complexity in the unknown transition setting and improves upon the interaction complexity of the best-known algorithm, OAL, by $O(H)$. Additionally, we demonstrate the generalization ability of MB-TAIL by extending it to the function approximation setting and proving that it can achieve expert sample and interaction complexity independent of $|S|$