Learning unnormalized statistical models (e.g., energy-based models) is computationally challenging due to the complexity of handling the partition function. To eschew this complexity, noise-contrastive estimation~(NCE) has been proposed by formulating the objective as the logistic loss of the real data and the artificial noise. However, as found in previous works, NCE may perform poorly in many tasks due to its flat loss landscape and slow convergence. In this paper, we study it a direct approach for optimizing the negative log-likelihood of unnormalized models from the perspective of compositional optimization. To tackle the partition function, a noise distribution is introduced such that the log partition function can be written as a compositional function whose inner function can be estimated with stochastic samples. Hence, the objective can be optimized by stochastic compositional optimization algorithms. Despite being a simple method, we demonstrate that it is more favorable than NCE by (1) establishing a fast convergence rate and quantifying its dependence on the noise distribution through the variance of stochastic estimators; (2) developing better results for one-dimensional Gaussian mean estimation by showing our objective has a much favorable loss landscape and hence our method enjoys faster convergence; (3) demonstrating better performance on multiple applications, including density estimation, out-of-distribution detection, and real image generation.

This paper presents a new distance metric to compare two continuous probability density functions. The main advantage of this metric is that, unlike other statistical measurements, it can provide an analytic, closed-form expression for a mixture of Gaussian distributions while satisfying all metric properties. These characteristics enable fast, stable, and efficient calculations, which are highly desirable in real-world signal processing applications. The application in mind is Gaussian Mixture Reduction (GMR), which is widely used in density estimation, recursive tracking, and belief propagation. To address this problem, we developed a novel algorithm dubbed the Optimization-based Greedy GMR (OGGMR), which employs our metric as a criterion to approximate a high-order Gaussian mixture with a lower order. Experimental results show that the OGGMR algorithm is significantly faster and more efficient than state-of-the-art GMR algorithms while retaining the geometric shape of the original mixture.

Bayesian neural networks often approximate the weight-posterior with a Gaussian distribution. However, practical posteriors are often, even locally, highly non-Gaussian, and empirical performance deteriorates. We propose a simple parametric approximate posterior that adapts to the shape of the true posterior through a Riemannian metric that is determined by the log-posterior gradient. We develop a Riemannian Laplace approximation where samples naturally fall into weight-regions with low negative log-posterior. We show that these samples can be drawn by solving a system of ordinary differential equations, which can be done efficiently by leveraging the structure of the Riemannian metric and automatic differentiation. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach consistently improves over the conventional Laplace approximation across tasks. We further show that, unlike the conventional Laplace approximation, our method is not overly sensitive to the choice of prior, which alleviates a practical pitfall of current approaches.

In the field of decision trees, most previous studies have difficulty ensuring the statistical optimality of a prediction of new data and suffer from overfitting because trees are usually used only to represent prediction functions to be constructed from given data. In contrast, some studies, including this paper, used the trees to represent stochastic data observation processes behind given data. Moreover, they derived the statistically optimal prediction, which is robust against overfitting, based on the Bayesian decision theory by assuming a prior distribution for the trees. However, these studies still have a problem in computing this Bayes optimal prediction because it involves an infeasible summation for all division patterns of a feature space, which is represented by the trees and some parameters. In particular, an open problem is a summation with respect to combinations of division axes, i.e., the assignment of features to inner nodes of the tree. We solve this by a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, whose step size is adaptively tuned according to a posterior distribution for the trees.

Training a classifier exploiting a huge amount of supervised data is expensive or even prohibited in a situation, where the labeling cost is high. The remarkable progress in working with weaker forms of supervision is binary classification from multiple unlabeled datasets which requires the knowledge of exact class priors for all unlabeled datasets. However, the availability of class priors is restrictive in many real-world scenarios. To address this issue, we propose to solve a new problem setting, i.e., binary classification from multiple unlabeled datasets with only one pairwise numerical relationship of class priors (MU-OPPO), which knows the relative order (which unlabeled dataset has a higher proportion of positive examples) of two class-prior probabilities for two datasets among multiple unlabeled datasets. In MU-OPPO, we do not need the class priors for all unlabeled datasets, but we only require that there exists a pair of unlabeled datasets for which we know which unlabeled dataset has a larger class prior. Clearly, this form of supervision is easier to be obtained, which can make labeling costs almost free. We propose a novel framework to handle the MU-OPPO problem, which consists of four sequential modules: (i) pseudo label assignment; (ii) confident example collection; (iii) class prior estimation; (iv) classifier training with estimated class priors. Theoretically, we analyze the gap between estimated class priors and true class priors under the proposed framework. Empirically, we confirm the superiority of our framework with comprehensive experiments. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework brings smaller estimation errors of class priors and better performance of binary classification.

Planning multi-contact motions in a receding horizon fashion requires a value function to guide the planning with respect to the future, e.g., building momentum to traverse large obstacles. Traditionally, the value function is approximated by computing trajectories in a prediction horizon (never executed) that foresees the future beyond the execution horizon. However, given the non-convex dynamics of multi-contact motions, this approach is computationally expensive. To enable online Receding Horizon Planning (RHP) of multi-contact motions, we find efficient approximations of the value function. Specifically, we propose a trajectory-based and a learning-based approach. In the former, namely RHP with Multiple Levels of Model Fidelity, we approximate the value function by computing the prediction horizon with a convex relaxed model. In the latter, namely Locally-Guided RHP, we learn an oracle to predict local objectives for locomotion tasks, and we use these local objectives to construct local value functions for guiding a short-horizon RHP. We evaluate both approaches in simulation by planning centroidal trajectories of a humanoid robot walking on moderate slopes, and on large slopes where the robot cannot maintain static balance. Our results show that locally-guided RHP achieves the best computation efficiency (95\%-98.6\% cycles converge online). This computation advantage enables us to demonstrate online receding horizon planning of our real-world humanoid robot Talos walking in dynamic environments that change on-the-fly.

Discrete distribution estimation, i.e., density estimation over discrete domains, is a fundamental problem in Statistics, with a rich history (see, e.g., [9, 10] for an overview and further references). In this work, we address a simple yet surprisingly ill-understood aspect of this question: what is sample complexity of estimating an arbitrary discrete distribution in Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence with vanishing probability of error? To describe the problem further, a few definitions are in order.

Probabilistic circuits (PCs) are models that allow exact and tractable probabilistic inference. In contrast to neural networks, they are often assumed to be well-calibrated and robust to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. In this paper, we show that PCs are in fact not robust to OOD data, i.e., they don't know what they don't know. We then show how this challenge can be overcome by model uncertainty quantification. To this end, we propose tractable dropout inference (TDI), an inference procedure to estimate uncertainty by deriving an analytical solution to Monte Carlo dropout (MCD) through variance propagation. Unlike MCD in neural networks, which comes at the cost of multiple network evaluations, TDI provides tractable sampling-free uncertainty estimates in a single forward pass. TDI improves the robustness of PCs to distribution shift and OOD data, demonstrated through a series of experiments evaluating the classification confidence and uncertainty estimates on real-world data.

Autonomous robots need to learn the categories of various places by exploring their environments and interacting with users. However, preparing training datasets with linguistic instructions from users is time-consuming and labor-intensive. Moreover, effective exploration is essential for appropriate concept formation and rapid environmental coverage. To address this issue, we propose an active inference method, referred to as spatial concept formation with information gain-based active exploration (SpCoAE) that combines sequential Bayesian inference using particle filters and information gain-based destination determination in a probabilistic generative model. This study interprets the robot's action as a selection of destinations to ask the user, `What kind of place is this?' in the context of active inference. This study provides insights into the technical aspects of the proposed method, including active perception and exploration by the robot, and how the method can enable mobile robots to learn spatial concepts through active exploration. Our experiment demonstrated the effectiveness of the SpCoAE in efficiently determining a destination for learning appropriate spatial concepts in home environments.

Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) encode a lot of information about a particular distribution in their structure. However, compute required to infer these structures is typically super-exponential in the number of variables, as inference requires a sweep of a combinatorially large space of potential structures. That is, until recent advances made it possible to search this space using a differentiable metric, drastically reducing search time. While this technique -- named NOTEARS -- is widely considered a seminal work in DAG-discovery, it concedes an important property in favour of differentiability: transportability. To be transportable, the structures discovered on one dataset must apply to another dataset from the same domain. We introduce D-Struct which recovers transportability in the discovered structures through a novel architecture and loss function while remaining fully differentiable. Because D-Struct remains differentiable, our method can be easily adopted in existing differentiable architectures, as was previously done with NOTEARS. In our experiments, we empirically validate D-Struct with respect to edge accuracy and structural Hamming distance in a variety of settings.