How does language inform our downstream thinking? In particular, how do humans make meaning from language--and how can we leverage a theory of linguistic meaning to build machines that think in more human-like ways? In this paper, we propose rational meaning construction, a computational framework for language-informed thinking that combines neural language models with probabilistic models for rational inference. We frame linguistic meaning as a context-sensitive mapping from natural language into a probabilistic language of thought (PLoT)--a general-purpose symbolic substrate for generative world modeling. Our architecture integrates two computational tools that have not previously come together: we model thinking with probabilistic programs, an expressive representation for commonsense reasoning; and we model meaning construction with large language models (LLMs), which support broad-coverage translation from natural language utterances to code expressions in a probabilistic programming language. We illustrate our framework through examples covering four core domains from cognitive science: probabilistic reasoning, logical and relational reasoning, visual and physical reasoning, and social reasoning. In each, we show that LLMs can generate context-sensitive translations that capture pragmatically-appropriate linguistic meanings, while Bayesian inference with the generated programs supports coherent and robust commonsense reasoning. We extend our framework to integrate cognitively-motivated symbolic modules (physics simulators, graphics engines, and planning algorithms) to provide a unified commonsense thinking interface from language. Finally, we explore how language can drive the construction of world models themselves. We hope this work will provide a roadmap towards cognitive models and AI systems that synthesize the insights of both modern and classical computational perspectives.

Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and generalization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is challenging and requires restrictive approximations. Monte Carlo Dropout has been widely used as a relatively cheap way for approximate Inference and to estimate uncertainty with deep neural networks. Traditionally, the dropout mask is sampled independently from a fixed distribution. Recent works show that the dropout mask can be viewed as a latent variable, which can be inferred with variational inference. These methods face two important challenges: (a) the posterior distribution over masks can be highly multi-modal which can be difficult to approximate with standard variational inference and (b) it is not trivial to fully utilize sample-dependent information and correlation among dropout masks to improve posterior estimation. In this work, we propose GFlowOut to address these issues. GFlowOut leverages the recently proposed probabilistic framework of Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to learn the posterior distribution over dropout masks. We empirically demonstrate that GFlowOut results in predictive distributions that generalize better to out-of-distribution data, and provide uncertainty estimates which lead to better performance in downstream tasks.

Discrimination in machine learning often arises along multiple dimensions (a.k.a. protected attributes); it is then desirable to ensure \emph{intersectional fairness} -- i.e., that no subgroup is discriminated against. It is known that ensuring \emph{marginal fairness} for every dimension independently is not sufficient in general. Due to the exponential number of subgroups, however, directly measuring intersectional fairness from data is impossible. In this paper, our primary goal is to understand in detail the relationship between marginal and intersectional fairness through statistical analysis. We first identify a set of sufficient conditions under which an exact relationship can be obtained. Then, we prove bounds (easily computable through marginal fairness and other meaningful statistical quantities) in high-probability on intersectional fairness in the general case. Beyond their descriptive value, we show that these theoretical bounds can be leveraged to derive a heuristic improving the approximation and bounds of intersectional fairness by choosing, in a relevant manner, protected attributes for which we describe intersectional subgroups. Finally, we test the performance of our approximations and bounds on real and synthetic data-sets.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

In this paper, we introduce a sketching algorithm for constructing a tensor train representation of a probability density from its samples. Our method deviates from the standard recursive SVD-based procedure for constructing a tensor train. Instead, we formulate and solve a sequence of small linear systems for the individual tensor train cores. This approach can avoid the curse of dimensionality that threatens both the algorithmic and sample complexities of the recovery problem. Specifically, for Markov models under natural conditions, we prove that the tensor cores can be recovered with a sample complexity that scales logarithmically in the dimensionality. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the method with several numerical experiments.

Simultaneous localisation and mapping (SLAM) play a vital role in autonomous robotics. Robotic platforms are often resource-constrained, and this limitation motivates resource-efficient SLAM implementations. While sparse visual SLAM algorithms offer good accuracy for modest hardware requirements, even these more scalable sparse approaches face limitations when applied to large-scale and long-term scenarios. A contributing factor is that the point clouds resulting from SLAM are inefficient to use and contain significant redundancy. This paper proposes the use of subset selection algorithms to reduce the map produced by sparse visual SLAM algorithms. Information-theoretic techniques have been applied to simpler related problems before, but they do not scale if applied to the full visual SLAM problem. This paper proposes a number of novel information\hyp{}theoretic utility functions for map point selection and optimises these functions using greedy algorithms. The reduced maps are evaluated using practical data alongside an existing visual SLAM implementation (ORB-SLAM 2). Approximate selection techniques proposed in this paper achieve trajectory accuracy comparable to an offline baseline while being suitable for online use. These techniques enable the practical reduction of maps for visual SLAM with competitive trajectory accuracy. Results also demonstrate that SLAM front-end performance can significantly impact the performance of map point selection. This shows the importance of testing map point selection with a front-end implementation. To exploit this, this paper proposes an approach that includes a model of the front-end in the utility function when additional information is available. This approach outperforms alternatives on applicable datasets and highlights future research directions.

To date, various neural methods have been proposed for causal effect estimation based on observational data, where a default assumption is the same distribution and availability of variables at both training and inference (i.e., runtime) stages. However, distribution shift (i.e., domain shift) could happen during runtime, and bigger challenges arise from the impaired accessibility of variables. This is commonly caused by increasing privacy and ethical concerns, which can make arbitrary variables unavailable in the entire runtime data and imputation impractical. We term the co-occurrence of domain shift and inaccessible variables runtime domain corruption, which seriously impairs the generalizability of a trained counterfactual predictor. To counter runtime domain corruption, we subsume counterfactual prediction under the notion of domain adaptation. Specifically, we upper-bound the error w.r.t. the target domain (i.e., runtime covariates) by the sum of source domain error and inter-domain distribution distance. In addition, we build an adversarially unified variational causal effect model, named VEGAN, with a novel two-stage adversarial domain adaptation scheme to reduce the latent distribution disparity between treated and control groups first, and between training and runtime variables afterwards. We demonstrate that VEGAN outperforms other state-of-the-art baselines on individual-level treatment effect estimation in the presence of runtime domain corruption on benchmark datasets.

Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) image understanding is crucial in remote sensing applications, but it is hindered by its intrinsic noise contamination, called speckle. Sophisticated statistical models, such as the $\mathcal{G}^0$ family of distributions, have been employed to SAR data and many of the current advancements in processing this imagery have been accomplished through extracting information from these models. In this paper, we propose improvements to parameter estimation in $\mathcal{G}^0$ distributions using the Method of Log-Cumulants. First, using Bayesian modeling, we construct that regularly produce reliable roughness estimates under both $\mathcal{G}^0_A$ and $\mathcal{G}^0_I$ models. Second, we make use of an approximation of the Trigamma function to compute the estimated roughness in constant time, making it considerably faster than the existing method for this task. Finally, we show how we can use this method to achieve fast and reliable SAR image understanding based on roughness information.

Predictive models that satisfy group fairness criteria in aggregate for members of a protected class, but do not guarantee subgroup fairness, could produce biased predictions for individuals at the intersection of two or more protected classes. To address this risk, we propose Conditional Bias Scan (CBS), a flexible auditing framework for detecting intersectional biases in classification models. CBS identifies the subgroup for which there is the most significant bias against the protected class, as compared to the equivalent subgroup in the non-protected class, and can incorporate multiple commonly used fairness definitions for both probabilistic and binarized predictions. We show that this methodology can detect previously unidentified intersectional and contextual biases in the COMPAS pre-trial risk assessment tool and has higher bias detection power compared to similar methods that audit for subgroup fairness.

Spaces with locally varying scale of measurement, like multidimensional structures with differently scaled dimensions, are pretty common in statistics and machine learning. Nevertheless, it is still understood as an open question how to exploit the entire information encoded in them properly. We address this problem by considering an order based on (sets of) expectations of random variables mapping into such non-standard spaces. This order contains stochastic dominance and expectation order as extreme cases when no, or respectively perfect, cardinal structure is given. We derive a (regularized) statistical test for our proposed generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) order, operationalize it by linear optimization, and robustify it by imprecise probability models. Our findings are illustrated with data from multidimensional poverty measurement, finance, and medicine.