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 Uncertainty


Tuning structure learning algorithms with out-of-sample and resampling strategies

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

One of the challenges practitioners face when applying structure learning algorithms to their data involves determining a set of hyperparameters; otherwise, a set of hyperparameter defaults is assumed. The optimal hyperparameter configuration often depends on multiple factors, including the size and density of the usually unknown underlying true graph, the sample size of the input data, and the structure learning algorithm. We propose a novel hyperparameter tuning method, called the Out-of-sample Tuning for Structure Learning (OTSL), that employs out-of-sample and resampling strategies to estimate the optimal hyperparameter configuration for structure learning, given the input data set and structure learning algorithm. Synthetic experiments show that employing OTSL as a means to tune the hyperparameters of hybrid and score-based structure learning algorithms leads to improvements in graphical accuracy compared to the state-of-the-art. We also illustrate the applicability of this approach to real datasets from different disciplines.


A Circuit Complexity Formulation of Algorithmic Information Theory

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Inspired by Solomonoffs theory of inductive inference, we propose a prior based on circuit complexity. There are several advantages to this approach. First, it relies on a complexity measure that does not depend on the choice of UTM. There is one universal definition for Boolean circuits involving an universal operation such as nand with simple conversions to alternative definitions such as and, or, and not. Second, there is no analogue of the halting problem. The output value of a circuit can be calculated recursively by computer in time proportional to the number of gates, while a short program may run for a very long time. Our prior assumes that a Boolean function, or equivalently, Boolean string of fixed length, is generated by some Bayesian mixture of circuits. This model is appropriate for learning Boolean functions from partial information, a problem often encountered within machine learning as "binary classification." We argue that an inductive bias towards simple explanations as measured by circuit complexity is appropriate for this problem.


Cooperative Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: Asynchronous Communication and Linear Function Approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study multi-agent reinforcement learning in the setting of episodic Markov decision processes, where multiple agents cooperate via communication through a central server. We propose a provably efficient algorithm based on value iteration that enable asynchronous communication while ensuring the advantage of cooperation with low communication overhead. With linear function approximation, we prove that our algorithm enjoys an $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(d^{3/2}H^2\sqrt{K})$ regret with $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(dHM^2)$ communication complexity, where $d$ is the feature dimension, $H$ is the horizon length, $M$ is the total number of agents, and $K$ is the total number of episodes. We also provide a lower bound showing that a minimal $\Omega(dM)$ communication complexity is required to improve the performance through collaboration.


Stochastic Generative Flow Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Contrary to the typical reward-maximizing policy Generative Flow Networks (or GFlowNets for in RL [Mnih et al., 2015, Lillicrap et al., 2015, Haarnoja short) are a family of probabilistic agents that et al., 2017, Fujimoto et al., 2018, Haarnoja et al., 2018], learn to sample complex combinatorial structures GFlowNets aim to learn a stochastic policy for sampling through the lens of "inference as control". They composite objects x with probability proportional to the have shown great potential in generating highquality reward function R(x). This is desirable in many real-world and diverse candidates from a given energy tasks where the diversity of solutions is important, and we landscape. However, existing GFlowNets can be aim to sample a diverse set of high-reward candidates, including applied only to deterministic environments, and recommender systems [Kunaver and Poลพrl, 2017], fail in more general tasks with stochastic dynamics, drug discovery [Bengio et al., 2021a, Jain et al., 2022a], and which can limit their applicability. To overcome sampling causal models from a Bayesian posterior [Deleu this challenge, this paper introduces Stochastic et al., 2022], among others. GFlowNets, a new algorithm that extends GFlowNets to stochastic environments. By decomposing state transitions into two steps, Stochastic GFlowNets isolate environmental stochasticity and learn a dynamics model to capture it. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Stochastic GFlowNets offer significant advantages over standard GFlowNets as well as MCMC-and RL-based approaches, on a variety of standard benchmarks Figure 1: An example illustrating the failure of existing with stochastic dynamics.


A Survey on Neural-symbolic Learning Systems

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In recent years, neural systems have demonstrated highly effective learning ability and superior perception intelligence. However, they have been found to lack effective reasoning and cognitive ability. On the other hand, symbolic systems exhibit exceptional cognitive intelligence but suffer from poor learning capabilities when compared to neural systems. Recognizing the advantages and disadvantages of both methodologies, an ideal solution emerges: combining neural systems and symbolic systems to create neural-symbolic learning systems that possess powerful perception and cognition. The purpose of this paper is to survey the advancements in neural-symbolic learning systems from four distinct perspectives: challenges, methods, applications, and future directions. By doing so, this research aims to propel this emerging field forward, offering researchers a comprehensive and holistic overview. This overview will not only highlight the current state-of-the-art but also identify promising avenues for future research.


Speaker-change Aware CRF for Dialogue Act Classification

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Recent work in Dialogue Act (DA) classification approaches the task as a sequence labeling problem, using neural network models coupled with a Conditional Random Field (CRF) as the last layer. CRF models the conditional probability of the target DA label sequence given the input utterance sequence. However, the task involves another important input sequence, that of speakers, which is ignored by previous work. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a simple modification of the CRF layer that takes speaker-change into account. Experiments on the SwDA corpus show that our modified CRF layer outperforms the original one, with very wide margins for some DA labels. Further, visualizations demonstrate that our CRF layer can learn meaningful, sophisticated transition patterns between DA label pairs conditioned on speaker-change in an end-to-end way. Code is publicly available.


Tensor Dirichlet Process Multinomial Mixture Model for Passenger Trajectory Clustering

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Passenger clustering based on travel records is essential for transportation operators. However, existing methods cannot easily cluster the passengers due to the hierarchical structure of the passenger trip information, namely: each passenger has multiple trips, and each trip contains multi-dimensional multi-mode information. Furthermore, existing approaches rely on an accurate specification of the clustering number to start, which is difficult when millions of commuters are using the transport systems on a daily basis. In this paper, we propose a novel Tensor Dirichlet Process Multinomial Mixture model (Tensor-DPMM), which is designed to preserve the multi-mode and hierarchical structure of the multi-dimensional trip information via tensor, and cluster them in a unified one-step manner. The model also has the ability to determine the number of clusters automatically by using the Dirichlet Process to decide the probabilities for a passenger to be either assigned in an existing cluster or to create a new cluster: This allows our model to grow the clusters as needed in a dynamic manner. Finally, existing methods do not consider spatial semantic graphs such as geographical proximity and functional similarity between the locations, which may cause inaccurate clustering. To this end, we further propose a variant of our model, namely the Tensor-DPMM with Graph. For the algorithm, we propose a tensor Collapsed Gibbs Sampling method, with an innovative step of "disband and relocating", which disbands clusters with too small amount of members and relocates them to the remaining clustering. This avoids uncontrollable growing amounts of clusters. A case study based on Hong Kong metro passenger data is conducted to demonstrate the automatic process of learning the number of clusters, and the learned clusters are better in within-cluster compactness and cross-cluster separateness.


On Learning Latent Models with Multi-Instance Weak Supervision

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We consider a weakly supervised learning scenario where the supervision signal is generated by a transition function $\sigma$ of labels associated with multiple input instances. We formulate this problem as \emph{multi-instance Partial Label Learning (multi-instance PLL)}, which is an extension to the standard PLL problem. Our problem is met in different fields, including latent structural learning and neuro-symbolic integration. Despite the existence of many learning techniques, limited theoretical analysis has been dedicated to this problem. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical study of multi-instance PLL with possibly an unknown transition $\sigma$. Our main contributions are as follows. Firstly, we propose a necessary and sufficient condition for the learnability of the problem. This condition non-trivially generalizes and relaxes the existing small ambiguity degree in the PLL literature, since we allow the transition to be deterministic. Secondly, we derive Rademacher-style error bounds based on a top-$k$ surrogate loss that is widely used in the neuro-symbolic literature. Furthermore, we conclude with empirical experiments for learning under unknown transitions. The empirical results align with our theoretical findings; however, they also expose the issue of scalability in the weak supervision literature.


A New Paradigm for Generative Adversarial Networks based on Randomized Decision Rules

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) was recently introduced in the literature as a novel machine learning method for training generative models. It has many applications in statistics such as nonparametric clustering and nonparametric conditional independence tests. However, training the GAN is notoriously difficult due to the issue of mode collapse, which refers to the lack of diversity among generated data. In this paper, we identify the reasons why the GAN suffers from this issue, and to address it, we propose a new formulation for the GAN based on randomized decision rules. In the new formulation, the discriminator converges to a fixed point while the generator converges to a distribution at the Nash equilibrium. We propose to train the GAN by an empirical Bayes-like method by treating the discriminator as a hyper-parameter of the posterior distribution of the generator. Specifically, we simulate generators from its posterior distribution conditioned on the discriminator using a stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and update the discriminator using stochastic gradient descent along with simulations of the generators. We establish convergence of the proposed method to the Nash equilibrium. Apart from image generation, we apply the proposed method to nonparametric clustering and nonparametric conditional independence tests. A portion of the numerical results is presented in the supplementary material.


Adversarial Robustness Certification for Bayesian Neural Networks

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the problem of certifying the robustness of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to adversarial input perturbations. Given a compact set of input points $T \subseteq \mathbb{R}^m$ and a set of output points $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}^n$, we define two notions of robustness for BNNs in an adversarial setting: probabilistic robustness and decision robustness. Probabilistic robustness is the probability that for all points in $T$ the output of a BNN sampled from the posterior is in $S$. On the other hand, decision robustness considers the optimal decision of a BNN and checks if for all points in $T$ the optimal decision of the BNN for a given loss function lies within the output set $S$. Although exact computation of these robustness properties is challenging due to the probabilistic and non-convex nature of BNNs, we present a unified computational framework for efficiently and formally bounding them. Our approach is based on weight interval sampling, integration, and bound propagation techniques, and can be applied to BNNs with a large number of parameters, and independently of the (approximate) inference method employed to train the BNN. We evaluate the effectiveness of our methods on various regression and classification tasks, including an industrial regression benchmark, MNIST, traffic sign recognition, and airborne collision avoidance, and demonstrate that our approach enables certification of robustness and uncertainty of BNN predictions.