Recent work in Dialogue Act (DA) classification approaches the task as a sequence labeling problem, using neural network models coupled with a Conditional Random Field (CRF) as the last layer. CRF models the conditional probability of the target DA label sequence given the input utterance sequence. However, the task involves another important input sequence, that of speakers, which is ignored by previous work. To address this limitation, this paper proposes a simple modification of the CRF layer that takes speaker-change into account. Experiments on the SwDA corpus show that our modified CRF layer outperforms the original one, with very wide margins for some DA labels. Further, visualizations demonstrate that our CRF layer can learn meaningful, sophisticated transition patterns between DA label pairs conditioned on speaker-change in an end-to-end way. Code is publicly available.

Passenger clustering based on travel records is essential for transportation operators. However, existing methods cannot easily cluster the passengers due to the hierarchical structure of the passenger trip information, namely: each passenger has multiple trips, and each trip contains multi-dimensional multi-mode information. Furthermore, existing approaches rely on an accurate specification of the clustering number to start, which is difficult when millions of commuters are using the transport systems on a daily basis. In this paper, we propose a novel Tensor Dirichlet Process Multinomial Mixture model (Tensor-DPMM), which is designed to preserve the multi-mode and hierarchical structure of the multi-dimensional trip information via tensor, and cluster them in a unified one-step manner. The model also has the ability to determine the number of clusters automatically by using the Dirichlet Process to decide the probabilities for a passenger to be either assigned in an existing cluster or to create a new cluster: This allows our model to grow the clusters as needed in a dynamic manner. Finally, existing methods do not consider spatial semantic graphs such as geographical proximity and functional similarity between the locations, which may cause inaccurate clustering. To this end, we further propose a variant of our model, namely the Tensor-DPMM with Graph. For the algorithm, we propose a tensor Collapsed Gibbs Sampling method, with an innovative step of "disband and relocating", which disbands clusters with too small amount of members and relocates them to the remaining clustering. This avoids uncontrollable growing amounts of clusters. A case study based on Hong Kong metro passenger data is conducted to demonstrate the automatic process of learning the number of clusters, and the learned clusters are better in within-cluster compactness and cross-cluster separateness.

We consider a weakly supervised learning scenario where the supervision signal is generated by a transition function $\sigma$ of labels associated with multiple input instances. We formulate this problem as \emph{multi-instance Partial Label Learning (multi-instance PLL)}, which is an extension to the standard PLL problem. Our problem is met in different fields, including latent structural learning and neuro-symbolic integration. Despite the existence of many learning techniques, limited theoretical analysis has been dedicated to this problem. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical study of multi-instance PLL with possibly an unknown transition $\sigma$. Our main contributions are as follows. Firstly, we propose a necessary and sufficient condition for the learnability of the problem. This condition non-trivially generalizes and relaxes the existing small ambiguity degree in the PLL literature, since we allow the transition to be deterministic. Secondly, we derive Rademacher-style error bounds based on a top-$k$ surrogate loss that is widely used in the neuro-symbolic literature. Furthermore, we conclude with empirical experiments for learning under unknown transitions. The empirical results align with our theoretical findings; however, they also expose the issue of scalability in the weak supervision literature.

The Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) was recently introduced in the literature as a novel machine learning method for training generative models. It has many applications in statistics such as nonparametric clustering and nonparametric conditional independence tests. However, training the GAN is notoriously difficult due to the issue of mode collapse, which refers to the lack of diversity among generated data. In this paper, we identify the reasons why the GAN suffers from this issue, and to address it, we propose a new formulation for the GAN based on randomized decision rules. In the new formulation, the discriminator converges to a fixed point while the generator converges to a distribution at the Nash equilibrium. We propose to train the GAN by an empirical Bayes-like method by treating the discriminator as a hyper-parameter of the posterior distribution of the generator. Specifically, we simulate generators from its posterior distribution conditioned on the discriminator using a stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm, and update the discriminator using stochastic gradient descent along with simulations of the generators. We establish convergence of the proposed method to the Nash equilibrium. Apart from image generation, we apply the proposed method to nonparametric clustering and nonparametric conditional independence tests. A portion of the numerical results is presented in the supplementary material.

We study the problem of certifying the robustness of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to adversarial input perturbations. Given a compact set of input points $T \subseteq \mathbb{R}^m$ and a set of output points $S \subseteq \mathbb{R}^n$, we define two notions of robustness for BNNs in an adversarial setting: probabilistic robustness and decision robustness. Probabilistic robustness is the probability that for all points in $T$ the output of a BNN sampled from the posterior is in $S$. On the other hand, decision robustness considers the optimal decision of a BNN and checks if for all points in $T$ the optimal decision of the BNN for a given loss function lies within the output set $S$. Although exact computation of these robustness properties is challenging due to the probabilistic and non-convex nature of BNNs, we present a unified computational framework for efficiently and formally bounding them. Our approach is based on weight interval sampling, integration, and bound propagation techniques, and can be applied to BNNs with a large number of parameters, and independently of the (approximate) inference method employed to train the BNN. We evaluate the effectiveness of our methods on various regression and classification tasks, including an industrial regression benchmark, MNIST, traffic sign recognition, and airborne collision avoidance, and demonstrate that our approach enables certification of robustness and uncertainty of BNN predictions.

How does language inform our downstream thinking? In particular, how do humans make meaning from language--and how can we leverage a theory of linguistic meaning to build machines that think in more human-like ways? In this paper, we propose rational meaning construction, a computational framework for language-informed thinking that combines neural language models with probabilistic models for rational inference. We frame linguistic meaning as a context-sensitive mapping from natural language into a probabilistic language of thought (PLoT)--a general-purpose symbolic substrate for generative world modeling. Our architecture integrates two computational tools that have not previously come together: we model thinking with probabilistic programs, an expressive representation for commonsense reasoning; and we model meaning construction with large language models (LLMs), which support broad-coverage translation from natural language utterances to code expressions in a probabilistic programming language. We illustrate our framework through examples covering four core domains from cognitive science: probabilistic reasoning, logical and relational reasoning, visual and physical reasoning, and social reasoning. In each, we show that LLMs can generate context-sensitive translations that capture pragmatically-appropriate linguistic meanings, while Bayesian inference with the generated programs supports coherent and robust commonsense reasoning. We extend our framework to integrate cognitively-motivated symbolic modules (physics simulators, graphics engines, and planning algorithms) to provide a unified commonsense thinking interface from language. Finally, we explore how language can drive the construction of world models themselves. We hope this work will provide a roadmap towards cognitive models and AI systems that synthesize the insights of both modern and classical computational perspectives.

Bayesian Inference offers principled tools to tackle many critical problems with modern neural networks such as poor calibration and generalization, and data inefficiency. However, scaling Bayesian inference to large architectures is challenging and requires restrictive approximations. Monte Carlo Dropout has been widely used as a relatively cheap way for approximate Inference and to estimate uncertainty with deep neural networks. Traditionally, the dropout mask is sampled independently from a fixed distribution. Recent works show that the dropout mask can be viewed as a latent variable, which can be inferred with variational inference. These methods face two important challenges: (a) the posterior distribution over masks can be highly multi-modal which can be difficult to approximate with standard variational inference and (b) it is not trivial to fully utilize sample-dependent information and correlation among dropout masks to improve posterior estimation. In this work, we propose GFlowOut to address these issues. GFlowOut leverages the recently proposed probabilistic framework of Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) to learn the posterior distribution over dropout masks. We empirically demonstrate that GFlowOut results in predictive distributions that generalize better to out-of-distribution data, and provide uncertainty estimates which lead to better performance in downstream tasks.

Discrimination in machine learning often arises along multiple dimensions (a.k.a. protected attributes); it is then desirable to ensure \emph{intersectional fairness} -- i.e., that no subgroup is discriminated against. It is known that ensuring \emph{marginal fairness} for every dimension independently is not sufficient in general. Due to the exponential number of subgroups, however, directly measuring intersectional fairness from data is impossible. In this paper, our primary goal is to understand in detail the relationship between marginal and intersectional fairness through statistical analysis. We first identify a set of sufficient conditions under which an exact relationship can be obtained. Then, we prove bounds (easily computable through marginal fairness and other meaningful statistical quantities) in high-probability on intersectional fairness in the general case. Beyond their descriptive value, we show that these theoretical bounds can be leveraged to derive a heuristic improving the approximation and bounds of intersectional fairness by choosing, in a relevant manner, protected attributes for which we describe intersectional subgroups. Finally, we test the performance of our approximations and bounds on real and synthetic data-sets.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

In this paper, we introduce a sketching algorithm for constructing a tensor train representation of a probability density from its samples. Our method deviates from the standard recursive SVD-based procedure for constructing a tensor train. Instead, we formulate and solve a sequence of small linear systems for the individual tensor train cores. This approach can avoid the curse of dimensionality that threatens both the algorithmic and sample complexities of the recovery problem. Specifically, for Markov models under natural conditions, we prove that the tensor cores can be recovered with a sample complexity that scales logarithmically in the dimensionality. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the method with several numerical experiments.