Uncertainty
Amortised Experimental Design and Parameter Estimation for User Models of Pointing
Keurulainen, Antti, Westerlund, Isak, Keurulainen, Oskar, Howes, Andrew
User models play an important role in interaction design, supporting automation of interaction design choices. In order to do so, model parameters must be estimated from user data. While very large amounts of user data are sometimes required, recent research has shown how experiments can be designed so as to gather data and infer parameters as efficiently as possible, thereby minimising the data requirement. In the current article, we investigate a variant of these methods that amortises the computational cost of designing experiments by training a policy for choosing experimental designs with simulated participants. Our solution learns which experiments provide the most useful data for parameter estimation by interacting with in-silico agents sampled from the model space thereby using synthetic data rather than vast amounts of human data. The approach is demonstrated for three progressively complex models of pointing.
Making Substitute Models More Bayesian Can Enhance Transferability of Adversarial Examples
Li, Qizhang, Guo, Yiwen, Zuo, Wangmeng, Chen, Hao
The transferability of adversarial examples across deep neural networks (DNNs) is the crux of many black-box attacks. Many prior efforts have been devoted to improving the transferability via increasing the diversity in inputs of some substitute models. In this paper, by contrast, we opt for the diversity in substitute models and advocate to attack a Bayesian model for achieving desirable transferability. Deriving from the Bayesian formulation, we develop a principled strategy for possible finetuning, which can be combined with many off-the-shelf Gaussian posterior approximations over DNN parameters. Extensive experiments have been conducted to verify the effectiveness of our method, on common benchmark datasets, and the results demonstrate that our method outperforms recent state-of-the-arts by large margins (roughly 19% absolute increase in average attack success rate on ImageNet), and, by combining with these recent methods, further performance gain can be obtained. The adversarial vulnerability of deep neural networks (DNNs) has attracted great attention (Szegedy et al., 2014; Goodfellow et al., 2015; Papernot et al., 2016; Carlini & Wagner, 2017; Madry et al., 2018; Athalye et al., 2018). It has been demonstrated that the prediction of state-of-the-art DNNs can be arbitrarily altered by adding perturbations, even imperceptible to human eyes, to their inputs. Threat models concerning adversarial examples can be divided into white-box and black-box ones according to the amount of information (of victim models) being exposed to the attacker. In blackbox attacks, where the attacker can hardly get access to the architecture and parameters of the victim model, the transferability of adversarial examples is often relied on, given the fact that adversarial examples crafted on a substitute model can sometimes fool other models as well.
Global Optimization with Parametric Function Approximation
We consider the problem of global optimization with noisy zeroth order oracles - a well-motivated problem useful for various applications ranging from hyper-parameter tuning for deep learning to new material design. Existing work relies on Gaussian processes or other non-parametric family, which suffers from the curse of dimensionality. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm GO-UCB that leverages a parametric family of functions (e.g., neural networks) instead. Under a realizable assumption and a few other mild geometric conditions, we show that GO-UCB achieves a cumulative regret of \~O$(\sqrt{T})$ where $T$ is the time horizon. At the core of GO-UCB is a carefully designed uncertainty set over parameters based on gradients that allows optimistic exploration. Synthetic and real-world experiments illustrate GO-UCB works better than popular Bayesian optimization approaches, even if the model is misspecified.
pyRDDLGym: From RDDL to Gym Environments
Taitler, Ayal, Gimelfarb, Michael, Jeong, Jihwan, Gopalakrishnan, Sriram, Mladenov, Martin, Liu, Xiaotian, Sanner, Scott
Reinforcement Learning (RL) Sutton and Barto [2018] and Probabilistic planning Puterman [2014] are two research branches that address stochastic problems, often under the Markov assumption for state dynamics. The planning approach requires a given model, while the learning approach improves through repeated interaction with an environment, which can be viewed as a black box. Thus, the tools and the benchmarks for these two branches have grown apart. Learning agents do not require to be able to simulate model-based transitions, and thus frameworks such as OpenAI Gym Brockman et al. [2016] have become a standard, serving also as an interface for third-party benchmarks such as Todorov et al. [2012], Bellemare et al. [2013] and more. As the model is not necessary for solving the learning problem, the environments are hard-coded in a programming language. This has several downsides; if one does wish to see the model describing the environment, it has to be reverse-engineered from the environment framework, complex problems can result in a significant development period, code bugs may make their way into the environment and finally, there is no clean way to verify the model or reuse it directly. Thus, the creation of a verified acceptable benchmark is a challenging task. Planning agents on the other hand can interact with an environment Sanner [2010a], but in many cases simulate the model within the planning agent in order to solve the problem Keller and Eyerich [2012]. The planning community has also come up with formal description languages for various types of problems; these include the Planning Domain Definition Language (PDDL) Aeronautiques et al. [1998] for classical planning problems, PDDL2.1 Fox and Long [2003] for problems involving time and continuous variables, PPDDL Bryce and Buet [2008] for classical planning problems with action probabilistic effects and rewards, and Relational Dynamic Influence Diagram Language (RDDL)
Physics-based Reduced Order Modeling for Uncertainty Quantification of Guided Wave Propagation using Bayesian Optimization
Drakoulas, G. I., Gortsas, T. V., Polyzos, D.
In the context of digital twins, structural health monitoring (SHM) constitutes the backbone of condition-based maintenance, facilitating the interconnection between virtual and physical assets. Guided wave propagation (GWP) is commonly employed for the inspection of structures in SHM. However, GWP is sensitive to variations in the material properties of the structure, leading to false alarms. In this direction, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is regularly applied to improve the reliability of predictions. Computational mechanics is a useful tool for the simulation of GWP, and is often applied for UQ. Even so, the application of UQ methods requires numerous simulations, while large-scale, transient numerical GWP solutions increase the computational cost. Reduced order models (ROMs) are commonly employed to provide numerical results in a limited amount of time. In this paper, we propose a machine learning (ML)-based ROM, mentioned as BO-ML-ROM, to decrease the computational time related to the simulation of the GWP. The ROM is integrated with a Bayesian optimization (BO) framework, to adaptively sample the parameters for the ROM training. The finite element method is used for the simulation of the high-fidelity models. The formulated ROM is used for forward UQ of the GWP in an aluminum plate with varying material properties. To determine the influence of each parameter perturbation, a global, variance-based sensitivity analysis is implemented based on Sobol' indices. It is shown that Bayesian optimization outperforms one-shot sampling methods, both in terms of accuracy and speed-up. The predicted results reveal the efficiency of BO-ML-ROM for GWP and demonstrate its value for UQ.
The Score-Difference Flow for Implicit Generative Modeling
Implicit generative modeling (IGM) aims to produce samples of synthetic data matching the characteristics of a target data distribution. Recent work (e.g. score-matching networks, diffusion models) has approached the IGM problem from the perspective of pushing synthetic source data toward the target distribution via dynamical perturbations or flows in the ambient space. In this direction, we present the score difference (SD) between arbitrary target and source distributions as a flow that optimally reduces the Kullback-Leibler divergence between them while also solving the Schroedinger bridge problem. We apply the SD flow to convenient proxy distributions, which are aligned if and only if the original distributions are aligned. We demonstrate the formal equivalence of this formulation to denoising diffusion models under certain conditions. We also show that the training of generative adversarial networks includes a hidden data-optimization sub-problem, which induces the SD flow under certain choices of loss function when the discriminator is optimal. As a result, the SD flow provides a theoretical link between model classes that individually address the three challenges of the "generative modeling trilemma" -- high sample quality, mode coverage, and fast sampling -- thereby setting the stage for a unified approach.
qecGPT: decoding Quantum Error-correcting Codes with Generative Pre-trained Transformers
Cao, Hanyan, Pan, Feng, Wang, Yijia, Zhang, Pan
We propose a general framework for decoding quantum error-correcting codes with generative modeling. The model utilizes autoregressive neural networks, specifically Transformers, to learn the joint probability of logical operators and syndromes. This training is in an unsupervised way, without the need for labeled training data, and is thus referred to as pre-training. After the pre-training, the model can efficiently compute the likelihood of logical operators for any given syndrome, using maximum likelihood decoding. It can directly generate the most-likely logical operators with computational complexity $\mathcal O(2k)$ in the number of logical qubits $k$, which is significantly better than the conventional maximum likelihood decoding algorithms that require $\mathcal O(4^k)$ computation. Based on the pre-trained model, we further propose refinement to achieve more accurately the likelihood of logical operators for a given syndrome by directly sampling the stabilizer operators. We perform numerical experiments on stabilizer codes with small code distances, using both depolarizing error models and error models with correlated noise. The results show that our approach provides significantly better decoding accuracy than the minimum weight perfect matching and belief-propagation-based algorithms. Our framework is general and can be applied to any error model and quantum codes with different topologies such as surface codes and quantum LDPC codes. Furthermore, it leverages the parallelization capabilities of GPUs, enabling simultaneous decoding of a large number of syndromes. Our approach sheds light on the efficient and accurate decoding of quantum error-correcting codes using generative artificial intelligence and modern computational power.
EVIL: Evidential Inference Learning for Trustworthy Semi-supervised Medical Image Segmentation
Chen, Yingyu, Yang, Ziyuan, Shen, Chenyu, Wang, Zhiwen, Qin, Yang, Zhang, Yi
Recently, uncertainty-aware methods have attracted increasing attention in semi-supervised medical image segmentation. However, since these methods rely heavily on the prediction However, current methods usually suffer from of pseudo label, false predictions will severely degrade the drawback that it is difficult to balance the computational the segmentation performance. To improve the quality of cost, estimation accuracy, and theoretical support in a unified pseudo labels, some uncertainty-aware methods have been framework. To alleviate this problem, we introduce proposed, including Monte Carlo dropout (MC-dropout)- the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence (DST) into semisupervised based [9], Information-Entropy-based [10], and Prediction medical image segmentation, dubbed EVidential Variance-based [11] methods. However, these methods suffer Inference Learning (EVIL). EVIL provides a theoretically from some problems: (1) Although MC-dropout is mathematically guaranteed solution to infer accurate uncertainty quantification guaranteed by Bayesian theory, its training process in a single forward pass. Trustworthy pseudo labels on is costly due to the multiple sampling operations; (2) Due unlabeled data are generated after uncertainty estimation. The to the limited sampling times, MC-dropout can't obtain accurate recently proposed consistency regularization-based training uncertainty quantification; (3) Other two uncertainty paradigm is adopted in our framework, which enforces the estimation methods have advantages in computational cost, consistency on the perturbed predictions to enhance the generalization but they lack theoretical support, leading to unstable pseudo with few labeled data. Experimental results show label generation.
A Recursive Bateson-Inspired Model for the Generation of Semantic Formal Concepts from Spatial Sensory Data
de Miguel-Rodriguez, Jaime, Sancho-Caparrini, Fernando
Neural-symbolic approaches to machine learning incorporate the advantages from both connectionist and symbolic methods. Typically, these models employ a first module based on a neural architecture to extract features from complex data. Then, these features are processed as symbols by a symbolic engine that provides reasoning, concept structures, composability, better generalization and out-of-distribution learning among other possibilities. However, neural approaches to the grounding of symbols in sensory data, albeit powerful, still require heavy training and tedious labeling for the most part. This paper presents a new symbolic-only method for the generation of hierarchical concept structures from complex spatial sensory data. The approach is based on Bateson's notion of difference as the key to the genesis of an idea or a concept. Following his suggestion, the model extracts atomic features from raw data by computing elemental sequential comparisons in a stream of multivariate numerical values. Higher-level constructs are built from these features by subjecting them to further comparisons in a recursive process. At any stage in the recursion, a concept structure may be obtained from these constructs and features by means of Formal Concept Analysis. Results show that the model is able to produce fairly rich yet human-readable conceptual representations without training. Additionally, the concept structures obtained through the model (i) present high composability, which potentially enables the generation of 'unseen' concepts, (ii) allow formal reasoning, and (iii) have inherent abilities for generalization and out-of-distribution learning. Consequently, this method may offer an interesting angle to current neural-symbolic research. Future work is required to develop a training methodology so that the model can be tested against a larger dataset.
A survey on learning from imbalanced data streams: taxonomy, challenges, empirical study, and reproducible experimental framework
Aguiar, Gabriel, Krawczyk, Bartosz, Cano, Alberto
Class imbalance poses new challenges when it comes to classifying data streams. Many algorithms recently proposed in the literature tackle this problem using a variety of data-level, algorithm-level, and ensemble approaches. However, there is a lack of standardized and agreed-upon procedures and benchmarks on how to evaluate these algorithms. This work proposes a standardized, exhaustive, and comprehensive experimental framework to evaluate algorithms in a collection of diverse and challenging imbalanced data stream scenarios. The experimental study evaluates 24 state-of-the-art data streams algorithms on 515 imbalanced data streams that combine static and dynamic class imbalance ratios, instance-level difficulties, concept drift, real-world and semi-synthetic datasets in binary and multi-class scenarios. This leads to a large-scale experimental study comparing state-of-the-art classifiers in the data stream mining domain. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of state-of-the-art classifiers in each of these scenarios and we provide general recommendations to end-users for selecting the best algorithms for imbalanced data streams. Additionally, we formulate open challenges and future directions for this domain. Our experimental framework is fully reproducible and easy to extend with new methods. This way, we propose a standardized approach to conducting experiments in imbalanced data streams that can be used by other researchers to create complete, trustworthy, and fair evaluation of newly proposed methods. Our experimental framework can be downloaded from https://github.com/canoalberto/imbalanced-streams.