Uncertainty
K-VIL: Keypoints-based Visual Imitation Learning
Gao, Jianfeng, Tao, Zhi, Jaquier, Noémie, Asfour, Tamim
Visual imitation learning provides efficient and intuitive solutions for robotic systems to acquire novel manipulation skills. However, simultaneously learning geometric task constraints and control policies from visual inputs alone remains a challenging problem. In this paper, we propose an approach for keypoint-based visual imitation (K-VIL) that automatically extracts sparse, object-centric, and embodiment-independent task representations from a small number of human demonstration videos. The task representation is composed of keypoint-based geometric constraints on principal manifolds, their associated local frames, and the movement primitives that are then needed for the task execution. Our approach is capable of extracting such task representations from a single demonstration video, and of incrementally updating them when new demonstrations become available. To reproduce manipulation skills using the learned set of prioritized geometric constraints in novel scenes, we introduce a novel keypoint-based admittance controller. We evaluate our approach in several real-world applications, showcasing its ability to deal with cluttered scenes, viewpoint mismatch, new instances of categorical objects, and large object pose and shape variations, as well as its efficiency and robustness in both one-shot and few-shot imitation learning settings. Videos and source code are available at https://sites.google.com/view/k-vil.
A Nonparametric Approach with Marginals for Modeling Consumer Choice
Ruan, Yanqiu, Li, Xiaobo, Murthy, Karthyek, Natarajan, Karthik
Given data on the choices made by consumers for different offer sets, a key challenge is to develop parsimonious models that describe and predict consumer choice behavior while being amenable to prescriptive tasks such as pricing and assortment optimization. The marginal distribution model (MDM) is one such model, that requires only the specification of marginal distributions of the random utilities. This paper aims to establish necessary and sufficient conditions for given choice data to be consistent with the MDM hypothesis, inspired by the utility of similar characterizations for the random utility model (RUM). This endeavor leads to an exact characterization of the set of choice probabilities that the MDM can represent. Verifying the consistency of choice data with this characterization is equivalent to solving a polynomial-sized linear program. Since the analogous verification task for RUM is computationally intractable and neither of these models subsumes the other, MDM is helpful in striking a balance between tractability and representational power. The characterization is convenient to be used with robust optimization for making data-driven sales and revenue predictions for new unseen assortments. When the choice data lacks consistency with the MDM hypothesis, finding the best-fitting MDM choice probabilities reduces to solving a mixed integer convex program. The results extend naturally to the case where the alternatives can be grouped based on the similarity of the marginal distributions of the utilities. Numerical experiments show that MDM provides better representational power and prediction accuracy than multinominal logit and significantly better computational performance than RUM.
A Primer on the Data Cleaning Pipeline
The availability of both structured and unstructured databases, such as electronic health data, social media data, patent data, and surveys that are often updated in real time, among others, has grown rapidly over the past decade. With this expansion, the statistical and methodological questions around data integration, or rather merging multiple data sources, has also grown. Specifically, the science of the "data cleaning pipeline" contains four stages that allow an analyst to perform downstream tasks, predictive analyses, or statistical analyses on "cleaned data." This article provides a review of this emerging field, introducing technical terminology and commonly used methods. Statement of Significance: The article reviews the data cleaning pipeline, introducing technical terminology and commonly used methods.
A Statistical View of Column Subset Selection
We consider the problem of selecting a small subset of representative variables from a large dataset. In the computer science literature, this dimensionality reduction problem is typically formalized as Column Subset Selection (CSS). Meanwhile, the typical statistical formalization is to find an information-maximizing set of Principal Variables. This paper shows that these two approaches are equivalent, and moreover, both can be viewed as maximum likelihood estimation within a certain semi-parametric model. Using these connections, we show how to efficiently (1) perform CSS using only summary statistics from the original dataset; (2) perform CSS in the presence of missing and/or censored data; and (3) select the subset size for CSS in a hypothesis testing framework.
Multifidelity Covariance Estimation via Regression on the Manifold of Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices
Maurais, Aimee, Alsup, Terrence, Peherstorfer, Benjamin, Marzouk, Youssef
We introduce a multifidelity estimator of covariance matrices formulated as the solution to a regression problem on the manifold of symmetric positive definite matrices. The estimator is positive definite by construction, and the Mahalanobis distance minimized to obtain it possesses properties which enable practical computation. We show that our manifold regression multifidelity (MRMF) covariance estimator is a maximum likelihood estimator under a certain error model on manifold tangent space. More broadly, we show that our Riemannian regression framework encompasses existing multifidelity covariance estimators constructed from control variates. We demonstrate via numerical examples that our estimator can provide significant decreases, up to one order of magnitude, in squared estimation error relative to both single-fidelity and other multifidelity covariance estimators. Furthermore, preservation of positive definiteness ensures that our estimator is compatible with downstream tasks, such as data assimilation and metric learning, in which this property is essential.
Approximate blocked Gibbs sampling for Bayesian neural networks
In this work, minibatch MCMC sampling for feedforward neural networks is made more feasible. To this end, it is proposed to sample subgroups of parameters via a blocked Gibbs sampling scheme. By partitioning the parameter space, sampling is possible irrespective of layer width. It is also possible to alleviate vanishing acceptance rates for increasing depth by reducing the proposal variance in deeper layers. Increasing the length of a non-convergent chain increases the predictive accuracy in classification tasks, so avoiding vanishing acceptance rates and consequently enabling longer chain runs have practical benefits. Moreover, non-convergent chain realizations aid in the quantification of predictive uncertainty. An open problem is how to perform minibatch MCMC sampling for feedforward neural networks in the presence of augmented data.
How to DP-fy ML: A Practical Guide to Machine Learning with Differential Privacy
Ponomareva, Natalia (a:1:{s:5:"en_US";s:6:"Google";}) | Hazimeh, Hussein (Google) | Kurakin, Alex | Xu, Zheng | Denison, Carson | McMahan, H. Brendan | Vassilvitskii, Sergei | Chien, Steve | Thakurta, Abhradeep Guha
Machine Learning (ML) models are ubiquitous in real-world applications and are a constant focus of research. Modern ML models have become more complex, deeper, and harder to reason about. At the same time, the community has started to realize the importance of protecting the privacy of the training data that goes into these models. Differential Privacy (DP) has become a gold standard for making formal statements about data anonymization. However, while some adoption of DP has happened in industry, attempts to apply DP to real world complex ML models are still few and far between. The adoption of DP is hindered by limited practical guidance of what DP protection entails, what privacy guarantees to aim for, and the difficulty of achieving good privacy-utility-computation trade-offs for ML models. Tricks for tuning and maximizing performance are scattered among papers or stored in the heads of practitioners, particularly with respect to the challenging task of hyperparameter tuning. Furthermore, the literature seems to present conflicting evidence on how and whether to apply architectural adjustments and which components are “safe” to use with DP. In this survey paper, we attempt to create a self-contained guide that gives an in-depth overview of the field of DP ML. We aim to assemble information about achieving the best possible DP ML model with rigorous privacy guarantees. Our target audience is both researchers and practitioners. Researchers interested in DP for ML will benefit from a clear overview of current advances and areas for improvement. We also include theory-focused sections that highlight important topics such as privacy accounting and convergence. For a practitioner, this survey provides a background in DP theory and a clear step-by-step guide for choosing an appropriate privacy definition and approach, implementing DP training, potentially updating the model architecture, and tuning hyperparameters. For both researchers and practitioners, consistently and fully reporting privacy guarantees is critical, so we propose a set of specific best practices for stating guarantees. With sufficient computation and a sufficiently large training set or supplemental nonprivate data, both good accuracy (that is, almost as good as a non-private model) and good privacy can often be achievable. And even when computation and dataset size are limited, there are advantages to training with even a weak (but still finite) formal DP guarantee. Hence, we hope this work will facilitate more widespread deployments of DP ML models.
Model-free generalized fiducial inference
Motivated by the need for the development of safe and reliable methods for uncertainty quantification in machine learning, I propose and develop ideas for a model-free statistical framework for imprecise probabilistic prediction inference. This framework facilitates uncertainty quantification in the form of prediction sets that offer finite sample control of type 1 errors, a property shared with conformal prediction sets, but this new approach also offers more versatile tools for imprecise probabilistic reasoning. Furthermore, I propose and consider the theoretical and empirical properties of a precise probabilistic approximation to the model-free imprecise framework. Approximating a belief/plausibility measure pair by an [optimal in some sense] probability measure in the credal set is a critical resolution needed for the broader adoption of imprecise probabilistic approaches to inference in statistical and machine learning communities. It is largely undetermined in the statistical and machine learning literatures, more generally, how to properly quantify uncertainty in that there is no generally accepted standard of accountability of stated uncertainties. The research I present in this manuscript is aimed at motivating a framework for statistical inference with reliability and accountability as the guiding principles.
Information-theoretic Analysis of Test Data Sensitivity in Uncertainty
Futami, Futoshi, Iwata, Tomoharu
Bayesian inference is often utilized for uncertainty quantification tasks. A recent analysis by Xu and Raginsky 2022 rigorously decomposed the predictive uncertainty in Bayesian inference into two uncertainties, called aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties, which represent the inherent randomness in the data-generating process and the variability due to insufficient data, respectively. They analyzed those uncertainties in an information-theoretic way, assuming that the model is well-specified and treating the model's parameters as latent variables. However, the existing information-theoretic analysis of uncertainty cannot explain the widely believed property of uncertainty, known as the sensitivity between the test and training data. It implies that when test data are similar to training data in some sense, the epistemic uncertainty should become small. In this work, we study such uncertainty sensitivity using our novel decomposition method for the predictive uncertainty. Our analysis successfully defines such sensitivity using information-theoretic quantities. Furthermore, we extend the existing analysis of Bayesian meta-learning and show the novel sensitivities among tasks for the first time.
A Comprehensive Survey of Forgetting in Deep Learning Beyond Continual Learning
Wang, Zhenyi, Yang, Enneng, Shen, Li, Huang, Heng
Forgetting refers to the loss or deterioration of previously acquired information or knowledge. While the existing surveys on forgetting have primarily focused on continual learning, forgetting is a prevalent phenomenon observed in various other research domains within deep learning. Forgetting manifests in research fields such as generative models due to generator shifts, and federated learning due to heterogeneous data distributions across clients. Addressing forgetting encompasses several challenges, including balancing the retention of old task knowledge with fast learning of new tasks, managing task interference with conflicting goals, and preventing privacy leakage, etc. Moreover, most existing surveys on continual learning implicitly assume that forgetting is always harmful. In contrast, our survey argues that forgetting is a double-edged sword and can be beneficial and desirable in certain cases, such as privacy-preserving scenarios. By exploring forgetting in a broader context, we aim to present a more nuanced understanding of this phenomenon and highlight its potential advantages. Through this comprehensive survey, we aspire to uncover potential solutions by drawing upon ideas and approaches from various fields that have dealt with forgetting. By examining forgetting beyond its conventional boundaries, in future work, we hope to encourage the development of novel strategies for mitigating, harnessing, or even embracing forgetting in real applications. A comprehensive list of papers about forgetting in various research fields is available at \url{https://github.com/EnnengYang/Awesome-Forgetting-in-Deep-Learning}.