Uncertainty
Nonlinear Independent Component Analysis for Principled Disentanglement in Unsupervised Deep Learning
Hyvarinen, Aapo, Khemakhem, Ilyes, Morioka, Hiroshi
A central problem in unsupervised deep learning is how to find useful representations of high-dimensional data, sometimes called "disentanglement". Most approaches are heuristic and lack a proper theoretical foundation. In linear representation learning, independent component analysis (ICA) has been successful in many applications areas, and it is principled, i.e., based on a well-defined probabilistic model. However, extension of ICA to the nonlinear case has been problematic due to the lack of identifiability, i.e., uniqueness of the representation. Recently, nonlinear extensions that utilize temporal structure or some auxiliary information have been proposed. Such models are in fact identifiable, and consequently, an increasing number of algorithms have been developed. In particular, some self-supervised algorithms can be shown to estimate nonlinear ICA, even though they have initially been proposed from heuristic perspectives. This paper reviews the state-of-the-art of nonlinear ICA theory and algorithms.
Adaptive Resource Allocation for Virtualized Base Stations in O-RAN with Online Learning
Kalntis, Michail, Iosifidis, George, Kuipers, Fernando A.
Open Radio Access Network systems, with their virtualized base stations (vBSs), offer operators the benefits of increased flexibility, reduced costs, vendor diversity, and interoperability. Optimizing the allocation of resources in a vBS is challenging since it requires knowledge of the environment, (i.e., "external'' information), such as traffic demands and channel quality, which is difficult to acquire precisely over short intervals of a few seconds. To tackle this problem, we propose an online learning algorithm that balances the effective throughput and vBS energy consumption, even under unforeseeable and "challenging'' environments; for instance, non-stationary or adversarial traffic demands. We also develop a meta-learning scheme, which leverages the power of other algorithmic approaches, tailored for more "easy'' environments, and dynamically chooses the best performing one, thus enhancing the overall system's versatility and effectiveness. We prove the proposed solutions achieve sub-linear regret, providing zero average optimality gap even in challenging environments. The performance of the algorithms is evaluated with real-world data and various trace-driven evaluations, indicating savings of up to 64.5% in the power consumption of a vBS compared with state-of-the-art benchmarks.
Fair Ranking under Disparate Uncertainty
Rastogi, Richa, Joachims, Thorsten
Ranking is a ubiquitous method for focusing the attention of human evaluators on a manageable subset of options. Its use ranges from surfacing potentially relevant products on an e-commerce site to prioritizing college applications for human review. While ranking can make human evaluation far more effective by focusing attention on the most promising options, we argue that it can introduce unfairness if the uncertainty of the underlying relevance model differs between groups of options. Unfortunately, such disparity in uncertainty appears widespread, since the relevance estimates for minority groups tend to have higher uncertainty due to a lack of data or appropriate features. To overcome this fairness issue, we propose Equal-Opportunity Ranking (EOR) as a new fairness criterion for ranking that provably corrects for the disparity in uncertainty between groups. Furthermore, we present a practical algorithm for computing EOR rankings in time $O(n \log(n))$ and prove its close approximation guarantee to the globally optimal solution. In a comprehensive empirical evaluation on synthetic data, a US Census dataset, and a real-world case study of Amazon search queries, we find that the algorithm reliably guarantees EOR fairness while providing effective rankings.
Federated cINN Clustering for Accurate Clustered Federated Learning
Zhou, Yuhao, Shi, Minjia, Tian, Yuxin, Li, Yuanxi, Ye, Qing, Lv, Jiancheng
Federated Learning (FL) presents an innovative approach to privacy-preserving distributed machine learning and enables efficient crowd intelligence on a large scale. However, a significant challenge arises when coordinating FL with crowd intelligence which diverse client groups possess disparate objectives due to data heterogeneity or distinct tasks. To address this challenge, we propose the Federated cINN Clustering Algorithm (FCCA) to robustly cluster clients into different groups, avoiding mutual interference between clients with data heterogeneity, and thereby enhancing the performance of the global model. Specifically, FCCA utilizes a global encoder to transform each client's private data into multivariate Gaussian distributions. It then employs a generative model to learn encoded latent features through maximum likelihood estimation, which eases optimization and avoids mode collapse. Finally, the central server collects converged local models to approximate similarities between clients and thus partition them into distinct clusters. Extensive experimental results demonstrate FCCA's superiority over other state-of-the-art clustered federated learning algorithms, evaluated on various models and datasets. These results suggest that our approach has substantial potential to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of real-world federated learning tasks.
Efficient computation of predictive probabilities in probit models via expectation propagation
Fasano, Augusto, Anceschi, Niccolรฒ, Franzolini, Beatrice, Rebaudo, Giovanni
Binary regression models represent a popular model-based approach for binary classification. In the Bayesian framework, computational challenges in the form of the posterior distribution motivate still-ongoing fruitful research. Here, we focus on the computation of predictive probabilities in Bayesian probit models via expectation propagation (EP). Leveraging more general results in recent literature, we show that such predictive probabilities admit a closed-form expression. Improvements over state-of-the-art approaches are shown in a simulation study.
Accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling with diffusion models
Hunt-Smith, N. T., Melnitchouk, W., Ringer, F., Sato, N., Thomas, A. W, White, M. J.
Global fits of physics models require efficient methods for exploring high-dimensional and/or multimodal posterior functions. We introduce a novel method for accelerating Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling by pairing a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm with a diffusion model that can draw global samples with the aim of approximating the posterior. We briefly review diffusion models in the context of image synthesis before providing a streamlined diffusion model tailored towards low-dimensional data arrays. We then present our adapted Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which combines local proposals with global proposals taken from a diffusion model that is regularly trained on the samples produced during the MCMC run. Our approach leads to a significant reduction in the number of likelihood evaluations required to obtain an accurate representation of the Bayesian posterior across several analytic functions, as well as for a physical example based on a global analysis of parton distribution functions. Our method is extensible to other MCMC techniques, and we briefly compare our method to similar approaches based on normalizing flows. A code implementation can be found at https://github.com/NickHunt-Smith/MCMC-diffusion.
Bayesian inference of composition-dependent phase diagrams
Miryashkin, Timofei, Klimanova, Olga, Ladygin, Vladimir, Shapeev, Alexander
Phase diagrams serve as a highly informative tool for materials design, encapsulating information about the phases that a material can manifest under specific conditions. In this work, we develop a method in which Bayesian inference is employed to combine thermodynamic data from molecular dynamics (MD), melting point simulations, and phonon calculations, process these data, and yield a temperature-concentration phase diagram. The employed Bayesian framework yields us not only the free energies of different phases as functions of temperature and concentration but also the uncertainties of these free energies originating from statistical errors inherent to finite-length MD trajectories. Furthermore, it extrapolates the results of the finite-atom calculations to the infinite-atom limit and facilitates the choice of temperature, chemical potentials, and the number of atoms conducting the next simulation with which will be the most efficient in reducing the uncertainty of the phase diagram. The developed algorithm was successfully tested on two binary systems, Ge-Si and K-Na, in the full range of concentrations and temperatures.
Cognition-Mode Aware Variational Representation Learning Framework for Knowledge Tracing
Zhang, Moyu, Zhu, Xinning, Zhang, Chunhong, Pan, Feng, Qian, Wenchen, Zhao, Hui
The Knowledge Tracing (KT) task plays a crucial role in personalized learning, and its purpose is to predict student responses based on their historical practice behavior sequence. However, the KT task suffers from data sparsity, which makes it challenging to learn robust representations for students with few practice records and increases the risk of model overfitting. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a Cognition-Mode Aware Variational Representation Learning Framework (CMVF) that can be directly applied to existing KT methods. Our framework uses a probabilistic model to generate a distribution for each student, accounting for uncertainty in those with limited practice records, and estimate the student's distribution via variational inference (VI). In addition, we also introduce a cognition-mode aware multinomial distribution as prior knowledge that constrains the posterior student distributions learning, so as to ensure that students with similar cognition modes have similar distributions, avoiding overwhelming personalization for students with few practice records. At last, extensive experimental results confirm that CMVF can effectively aid existing KT methods in learning more robust student representations. Our code is available at https://github.com/zmy-9/CMVF.
Advances in machine-learning-based sampling motivated by lattice quantum chromodynamics
Cranmer, Kyle, Kanwar, Gurtej, Racaniรจre, Sรฉbastien, Rezende, Danilo J., Shanahan, Phiala E.
Sampling from known probability distributions is a ubiquitous task in computational science, underlying calculations in domains from linguistics to biology and physics. Generative machine-learning (ML) models have emerged as a promising tool in this space, building on the success of this approach in applications such as image, text, and audio generation. Often, however, generative tasks in scientific domains have unique structures and features -- such as complex symmetries and the requirement of exactness guarantees -- that present both challenges and opportunities for ML. This Perspective outlines the advances in ML-based sampling motivated by lattice quantum field theory, in particular for the theory of quantum chromodynamics. Enabling calculations of the structure and interactions of matter from our most fundamental understanding of particle physics, lattice quantum chromodynamics is one of the main consumers of open-science supercomputing worldwide. The design of ML algorithms for this application faces profound challenges, including the necessity of scaling custom ML architectures to the largest supercomputers, but also promises immense benefits, and is spurring a wave of development in ML-based sampling more broadly. In lattice field theory, if this approach can realize its early promise it will be a transformative step towards first-principles physics calculations in particle, nuclear and condensed matter physics that are intractable with traditional approaches.
Pressmatch: Automated journalist recommendation for media coverage with Nearest Neighbor search
Slating a product for release often involves pitching journalists to run stories on your press release. Good media coverage often ensures greater product reach and drives audience engagement for those products. Hence, ensuring that those releases are pitched to the right journalists with relevant interests is crucial, since they receive several pitches daily. Keeping up with journalist beats and curating a media contacts list is often a huge and time-consuming task. This study proposes a model to automate and expedite the process by recommending suitable journalists to run media coverage on the press releases provided by the user.