Normalizing Flows (NFs) describe a class of models that express a complex target distribution as the composition of a series of bijective transformations over a simpler base distribution. By limiting the space of candidate transformations to diffeomorphisms, NFs enjoy efficient, exact sampling and density evaluation, enabling NFs to flexibly behave as both discriminative and generative models. Their restriction to diffeomorphisms, however, enforces that input, output and all intermediary spaces share the same dimension, limiting their ability to effectively represent target distributions with complex topologies (Zhang and Chen 2021). Additionally, in cases where the prior and target distributions are not homeomorphic, Normalizing Flows can leak mass outside of the support of the target (Cornish et al. 2019; Wu et al. 2020). This survey covers a selection of recent works that combine aspects of other generative model classes, such as VAEs and diffusion, and in doing so loosen the strict bijectivity constraints of NFs to achieve a balance of expressivity, training speed, sample efficiency and likelihood tractability.

Monitoring drivers' mental workload facilitates initiating and maintaining safe interactions with in-vehicle information systems, and thus delivers adaptive human machine interaction with reduced impact on the primary task of driving. In this paper, we tackle the problem of workload estimation from driving performance data. First, we present a novel on-road study for collecting subjective workload data via a modified peripheral detection task in naturalistic settings. Key environmental factors that induce a high mental workload are identified via video analysis, e.g. junctions and behaviour of vehicle in front. Second, a supervised learning framework using state-of-the-art time series classifiers (e.g. convolutional neural network and transform techniques) is introduced to profile drivers based on the average workload they experience during a journey. A Bayesian filtering approach is then proposed for sequentially estimating, in (near) real-time, the driver's instantaneous workload. This computationally efficient and flexible method can be easily personalised to a driver (e.g. incorporate their inferred average workload profile), adapted to driving/environmental contexts (e.g. road type) and extended with data streams from new sources. The efficacy of the presented profiling and instantaneous workload estimation approaches are demonstrated using the on-road study data, showing $F_{1}$ scores of up to 92% and 81%, respectively.

The advances in variational inference are providing promising paths in Bayesian estimation problems. These advances make variational phylogenetic inference an alternative approach to Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for approximating the phylogenetic posterior. However, one of the main drawbacks of such approaches is modelling the prior through fixed distributions, which could bias the posterior approximation if they are distant from the current data distribution. In this paper, we propose an approach and an implementation framework to relax the rigidity of the prior densities by learning their parameters using a gradient-based method and a neural network-based parameterization. We applied this approach for branch lengths and evolutionary parameters estimation under several Markov chain substitution models. The results of performed simulations show that the approach is powerful in estimating branch lengths and evolutionary model parameters. They also show that a flexible prior model could provide better results than a predefined prior model. Finally, the results highlight that using neural networks improves the initialization of the optimization of the prior density parameters.

A fundamental question in theoretical machine learning is generalization. Over the past decades, the PAC-Bayesian approach has been established as a flexible framework to address the generalization capabilities of machine learning algorithms, and design new ones. Recently, it has garnered increased interest due to its potential applicability for a variety of learning algorithms, including deep neural networks. In parallel, an information-theoretic view of generalization has developed, wherein the relation between generalization and various information measures has been established. This framework is intimately connected to the PAC-Bayesian approach, and a number of results have been independently discovered in both strands. In this monograph, we highlight this strong connection and present a unified treatment of generalization. We present techniques and results that the two perspectives have in common, and discuss the approaches and interpretations that differ. In particular, we demonstrate how many proofs in the area share a modular structure, through which the underlying ideas can be intuited. We pay special attention to the conditional mutual information (CMI) framework; analytical studies of the information complexity of learning algorithms; and the application of the proposed methods to deep learning. This monograph is intended to provide a comprehensive introduction to information-theoretic generalization bounds and their connection to PAC-Bayes, serving as a foundation from which the most recent developments are accessible. It is aimed broadly towards researchers with an interest in generalization and theoretical machine learning.

Acceptance-rejection (AR), Independent Metropolis Hastings (IMH) or importance sampling (IS) Monte Carlo (MC) simulation algorithms all involve computing ratios of probability density functions (pdfs). On the other hand, classifiers discriminate labeled samples produced by a mixture of two distributions and can be used for approximating the ratio of the two corresponding pdfs.This bridge between simulation and classification enables us to propose pdf-free versions of pdf-ratio-based simulation algorithms, where the ratio is replaced by a surrogate function computed via a classifier. From a probabilistic modeling perspective, our procedure involves a structured energy based model which can easily be trained and is compatible with the classical samplers.

The evaluation of noisy binary classifiers on unlabeled data is treated as a streaming task: given a data sketch of the decisions by an ensemble, estimate the true prevalence of the labels as well as each classifier's accuracy on them. Two fully algebraic evaluators are constructed to do this. Both are based on the assumption that the classifiers make independent errors. The first is based on majority voting. The second, the main contribution of the paper, is guaranteed to be correct. But how do we know the classifiers are independent on any given test? This principal/agent monitoring paradox is ameliorated by exploiting the failures of the independent evaluator to return sensible estimates. A search for nearly error independent trios is empirically carried out on the \texttt{adult}, \texttt{mushroom}, and \texttt{two-norm} datasets by using the algebraic failure modes to reject evaluation ensembles as too correlated. The searches are refined by constructing a surface in evaluation space that contains the true value point. The algebra of arbitrarily correlated classifiers permits the selection of a polynomial subset free of any correlation variables. Candidate evaluation ensembles are rejected if their data sketches produce independent estimates too far from the constructed surface. The results produced by the surviving ensembles can sometimes be as good as 1\%. But handling even small amounts of correlation remains a challenge. A Taylor expansion of the estimates produced when independence is assumed but the classifiers are, in fact, slightly correlated helps clarify how the independent evaluator has algebraic `blind spots'.

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing model variations that remain consistent with training data enables more robust predictions by reducing parameter sensitivity. This work introduces a fixed-point optimization for variational inference that is applicable when every feasible log density can be expressed as a linear combination of functions from a given basis. In such cases, the optimizer becomes a fixed-point of projective integral updates. When the basis spans univariate quadratics in each parameter, feasible densities are Gaussian and the projective integral updates yield quasi-Newton variational Bayes (QNVB). Other bases and updates are also possible. As these updates require high-dimensional integration, this work first proposes an efficient quasirandom quadrature sequence for mean-field distributions. Each iterate of the sequence contains two evaluation points that combine to correctly integrate all univariate quadratics and, if the mean-field factors are symmetric, all univariate cubics. More importantly, averaging results over short subsequences achieves periodic exactness on a much larger space of multivariate quadratics. The corresponding variational updates require 4 loss evaluations with standard (not second-order) backpropagation to eliminate error terms from over half of all multivariate quadratic basis functions. This integration technique is motivated by first proposing stochastic blocked mean-field quadratures, which may be useful in other contexts. A PyTorch implementation of QNVB allows for better control over model uncertainty during training than competing methods. Experiments demonstrate superior generalizability for multiple learning problems and architectures.

One of the core problems of modern Bayesian inference is to compute the posterior distribution, a joint probability measure over unknown quantities, such as model parameters and unobserved latent variables, obtained by combining data information with prior knowledge in a principled manner. Modern statistics often rely on complex models for which the posterior distribution is analytically intractable and requires approximate computation. As a common alternative strategy to conventional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach for approximating the posterior, variational inference (VI, [10]), or variational Bayes [27], finds the closest member in a user specified class of analytically tractable distributions, referred to as the variational (distribution) family, to approximate the target posterior. Although MCMC is asymptotically exact, VI is usually orders of magnitude faster [12, 62] since it turns the sampling or integration into an optimization problem. VI has successfully demonstrated its power in a wide variety of applications, including clustering [11, 23], semi-supervised learning [38], neural-network training [5, 52], and probabilistic modeling [13, 36]. Among various approximating schemes, the mean-field (MF) approximation, which originates from statistical mechanics and uses the approximating family consisting of all fully factorized density functions over (blocks of) the unknown quantities, is the most widely used and representative instance of VI that is conceptually simple yet practically powerful. On the downside, VI still requires certain conditional conjugacy structure to facilitate efficient computation (c.f.

Image-based visual servoing (IBVS) is a widely-used approach in robotics that employs visual information to guide robots towards desired positions. However, occlusions in this approach can lead to visual servoing failure and degrade the control performance due to the obstructed vision feature points that are essential for providing visual feedback. In this paper, we propose a Control Barrier Function (CBF) based controller that enables occlusion-free IBVS tasks by automatically adjusting the robot's configuration to keep the feature points in the field of view and away from obstacles. In particular, to account for measurement noise of the feature points, we develop the Probabilistic Control Barrier Certificates (PrCBC) using control barrier functions that encode the chance-constrained occlusion avoidance constraints under uncertainty into deterministic admissible control space for the robot, from which the resulting configuration of robot ensures that the feature points stay occlusion free from obstacles with a satisfying predefined probability. By integrating such constraints with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework, the sequence of optimized control inputs can be derived to achieve the primary IBVS task while enforcing the occlusion avoidance during robot movements. Simulation results are provided to validate the performance of our proposed method.

Graph neural networks (GNNs) have gained an increasing amount of popularity due to their superior capability in learning node embeddings for various graph inference tasks, but training them can raise privacy concerns. To address this, we propose using link local differential privacy over decentralized nodes, enabling collaboration with an untrusted server to train GNNs without revealing the existence of any link. Our approach spends the privacy budget separately on links and degrees of the graph for the server to better denoise the graph topology using Bayesian estimation, alleviating the negative impact of LDP on the accuracy of the trained GNNs. We bound the mean absolute error of the inferred link probabilities against the ground truth graph topology. We then propose two variants of our LDP mechanism complementing each other in different privacy settings, one of which estimates fewer links under lower privacy budgets to avoid false positive link estimates when the uncertainty is high, while the other utilizes more information and performs better given relatively higher privacy budgets. Furthermore, we propose a hybrid variant that combines both strategies and is able to perform better across different privacy budgets. Extensive experiments show that our approach outperforms existing methods in terms of accuracy under varying privacy budgets.