We are not only observers but also actors of reality. Our capability to intervene and alter the course of some events in the space and time surrounding us is an essential component of how we build our model of the world. In this doctoral thesis we introduce a generic a-priori assessment of each possible intervention, in order to select the most cost-effective interventions only, and avoid unnecessary systematic experimentation on the real world. Based on this a-priori assessment, we propose an active learning algorithm that identifies the causal relations in any given causal model, using a least cost sequence of interventions. There are several novel aspects introduced by our algorithm. It is, in most case scenarios, able to discard many causal model candidates using relatively inexpensive interventions that only test one value of the intervened variables. Also, the number of interventions performed by the algorithm can be bounded by the number of causal model candidates. Hence, fewer initial candidates (or equivalently, more prior knowledge) lead to fewer interventions for causal discovery. Causality is intimately related to time, as causes appear to precede their effects. Cyclical causal processes are a very interesting case of causality in relation to time. In this doctoral thesis we introduce a formal analysis of time cyclical causal settings by defining a causal analog to the purely observational Dynamic Bayesian Networks, and provide a sound and complete algorithm for the identification of causal effects in the cyclic setting. We introduce the existence of two types of hidden confounder variables in this framework, which affect in substantially different ways the identification procedures, a distinction with no analog in either Dynamic Bayesian Networks or standard causal graphs.

Abstract-- Robotic systems, particularly in demanding environments like narrow corridors or disaster zones, often grapple with imperfect state estimation. Addressing this challenge requires a trajectory plan that not only navigates these restrictive spaces but also manages the inherent uncertainty of the system. We present a novel approach for graph-based belief space planning via the use of an efficient covariance control algorithm. By adaptively steering state statistics via output state feedback, we efficiently craft a belief roadmap characterized by nodes with controlled uncertainty and edges representing collision-free mean trajectories. The roadmap's structured design then paves the way for precise path searches that balance control costs and uncertainty considerations. Figure 1: A belief space graph depicting sampled state beliefs I.

Generative modeling of 3D LiDAR data is an emerging task with promising applications for autonomous mobile robots, such as scalable simulation, scene manipulation, and sparse-to-dense completion of LiDAR point clouds. Existing approaches have shown the feasibility of image-based LiDAR data generation using deep generative models while still struggling with the fidelity of generated data and training instability. In this work, we present R2DM, a novel generative model for LiDAR data that can generate diverse and high-fidelity 3D scene point clouds based on the image representation of range and reflectance intensity. Our method is based on the denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs), which have demonstrated impressive results among generative model frameworks and have been significantly progressing in recent years. To effectively train DDPMs on the LiDAR domain, we first conduct an in-depth analysis regarding data representation, training objective, and spatial inductive bias. Based on our designed model R2DM, we also introduce a flexible LiDAR completion pipeline using the powerful properties of DDPMs. We demonstrate that our method outperforms the baselines on the generation task of KITTI-360 and KITTI-Raw datasets and the upsampling task of KITTI-360 datasets. Our code and pre-trained weights will be available at https://github.com/kazuto1011/r2dm.

Current methods of deploying robots that operate in dynamic, uncertain environments, such as Uncrewed Aerial Systems in search \& rescue missions, require nearly continuous human supervision for vehicle guidance and operation. These methods do not consider high-level mission context resulting in cumbersome manual operation or inefficient exhaustive search patterns. We present a human-centered autonomous framework that infers geospatial mission context through dynamic feature sets, which then guides a probabilistic target search planner. Operators provide a set of diverse inputs, including priority definition, spatial semantic information about ad-hoc geographical areas, and reference waypoints, which are probabilistically fused with geographical database information and condensed into a geospatial distribution representing an operator's preferences over an area. An online, POMDP-based planner, optimized for target searching, is augmented with this reward map to generate an operator-constrained policy. Our results, simulated based on input from five professional rescuers, display effective task mental model alignment, 18\% more victim finds, and 15 times more efficient guidance plans then current operational methods.

Given multiple non-convex objective functions and objective-specific weights, Chebyshev scalarization (CS) is a well-known approach to obtain an Exact Pareto Optimal (EPO), i.e., a solution on the Pareto front (PF) that intersects the ray defined by the inverse of the weights. First-order optimizers that use the CS formulation to find EPO solutions encounter practical problems of oscillations and stagnation that affect convergence. Moreover, when initialized with a PO solution, they do not guarantee a controlled trajectory that lies completely on the PF. These shortcomings lead to modeling limitations and computational inefficiency in multi-task learning (MTL) and multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods that utilize CS for their underlying non-convex multi-objective optimization (MOO). To address these shortcomings, we design a new MOO method, EPO Search. We prove that EPO Search converges to an EPO solution and empirically illustrate its computational efficiency and robustness to initialization. When initialized on the PF, EPO Search can trace the PF and converge to the required EPO solution at a linear rate of convergence. Using EPO Search we develop new algorithms: PESA-EPO for approximating the PF in a posteriori MCDM, and GP-EPO for preference elicitation in interactive MCDM; experiments on benchmark datasets confirm their advantages over competing alternatives. EPO Search scales linearly with the number of decision variables which enables its use for training deep networks. Empirical results on real data from personalized medicine, e-commerce and hydrometeorology demonstrate the efficacy of EPO Search for deep MTL.

The goal of this thesis is to study the use of the Kantorovich-Rubinstein distance as to build a descriptor of sample complexity in classification problems. The idea is to use the fact that the Kantorovich-Rubinstein distance is a metric in the space of measures that also takes into account the geometry and topology of the underlying metric space. We associate to each class of points a measure and thus study the geometrical information that we can obtain from the Kantorovich-Rubinstein distance between those measures. We show that a large Kantorovich-Rubinstein distance between those measures allows to conclude that there exists a 1-Lipschitz classifier that classifies well the classes of points. We also discuss the limitation of the Kantorovich-Rubinstein distance as a descriptor.

Design of process control scheme is critical for quality assurance to reduce variations in manufacturing systems. Taking semiconductor manufacturing as an example, extensive literature focuses on control optimization based on certain process models (usually linear models), which are obtained by experiments before a manufacturing process starts. However, in real applications, pre-defined models may not be accurate, especially for a complex manufacturing system. To tackle model inaccuracy, we propose a model-free reinforcement learning (MFRL) approach to conduct experiments and optimize control simultaneously according to real-time data. Specifically, we design a novel MFRL control scheme by updating the distribution of disturbances using Bayesian inference to reduce their large variations during manufacturing processes. As a result, the proposed MFRL controller is demonstrated to perform well in a nonlinear chemical mechanical planarization (CMP) process when the process model is unknown. Theoretical properties are also guaranteed when disturbances are additive. The numerical studies also demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our methodology.

Machine learning and data science heavily rely on probability distributions that are widely used to capture dependencies among large number of variables. Such high-dimensional distributions naturally appear in various domains including neuroscience [ROL02, CTY06], bioinformatics [BB01], text and image processing [Mur22], and causal inference [Pea09]. Substantial research has been devoted to developing models that represent high-dimensional probability distributions succinctly. One prevalent approach is through graphical models. In a graphical model, a graph describes the conditional dependencies among variables and the probability distribution is factorized according to the adjacency relationships in the graph [KF09]. When the underlying graph is a directed graph, the model is known as a Bayesian network or Bayes net. Two fundamental computational tasks on distributions are distance computation and probabilistic inference. In this work, we establish a novel connection between these two seemingly different computational tasks.

In combinatorial causal bandits (CCB), the learning agent chooses a subset of variables in each round to intervene and collects feedback from the observed variables to minimize expected regret or sample complexity. Previous works study this problem in both general causal models and binary generalized linear models (BGLMs). However, all of them require prior knowledge of causal graph structure. This paper studies the CCB problem without the graph structure on binary general causal models and BGLMs. We first provide an exponential lower bound of cumulative regrets for the CCB problem on general causal models. To overcome the exponentially large space of parameters, we then consider the CCB problem on BGLMs. We design a regret minimization algorithm for BGLMs even without the graph skeleton and show that it still achieves $O(\sqrt{T}\ln T)$ expected regret. This asymptotic regret is the same as the state-of-art algorithms relying on the graph structure. Moreover, we sacrifice the regret to $O(T^{\frac{2}{3}}\ln T)$ to remove the weight gap covered by the asymptotic notation. At last, we give some discussions and algorithms for pure exploration of the CCB problem without the graph structure.

We present TabPFN, a trained Transformer that can do supervised classification for small tabular datasets in less than a second, needs no hyperparameter tuning and is competitive with state-of-the-art classification methods. TabPFN performs in-context learning (ICL), it learns to make predictions using sequences of labeled examples (x, f(x)) given in the input, without requiring further parameter updates. TabPFN is fully entailed in the weights of our network, which accepts training and test samples as a set-valued input and yields predictions for the entire test set in a single forward pass. TabPFN is a Prior-Data Fitted Network (PFN) and is trained offline once, to approximate Bayesian inference on synthetic datasets drawn from our prior. This prior incorporates ideas from causal reasoning: It entails a large space of structural causal models with a preference for simple structures. On the 18 datasets in the OpenML-CC18 suite that contain up to 1 000 training data points, up to 100 purely numerical features without missing values, and up to 10 classes, we show that our method clearly outperforms boosted trees and performs on par with complex state-of-the-art AutoML systems with up to 230$\times$ speedup. This increases to a 5 700$\times$ speedup when using a GPU. We also validate these results on an additional 67 small numerical datasets from OpenML. We provide all our code, the trained TabPFN, an interactive browser demo and a Colab notebook at https://github.com/automl/TabPFN.