We consider probabilistic models for sequential observations which exhibit gradual transitions among a finite number of states. We are particularly motivated by applications such as human activity analysis where observed accelerometer time series contains segments representing distinct activities, which we call pure states, as well as periods characterized by continuous transition among these pure states. To capture this transitory behavior, the dynamical Wasserstein barycenter (DWB) model of [1] associates with each pure state a data-generating distribution and models the continuous transitions among these states as a Wasserstein barycenter of these distributions with dynamically evolving weights. Focusing on the univariate case where Wasserstein distances and barycenters can be computed in closed form, we extend [1] specifically relaxing the parameterization of the pure states as Gaussian distributions. We highlight issues related to the uniqueness in identifying the model parameters as well as uncertainties induced when estimating a dynamically evolving distribution from a limited number of samples. To ameliorate non-uniqueness, we introduce regularization that imposes temporal smoothness on the dynamics of the barycentric weights. A quantile-based approximation of the pure state distributions yields a finite dimensional estimation problem which we numerically solve using cyclic descent alternating between updates to the pure-state quantile functions and the barycentric weights. We demonstrate the utility of the proposed algorithm in segmenting both simulated and real world human activity time series. We consider a probabilistic model for sequentially observed data where the observation at each point in time depends on a dynamically evolving latent state. We are particularly motivated by systems that continuously move among a set of canonical behaviors, which we call pure states.

Many ontologies, i.e., Description Logic (DL) knowledge bases, have been developed to provide rich knowledge about various domains, and a lot of them are based on ALC, i.e., a prototypical and expressive DL, or its extensions. The main task that explores ALC ontologies is to compute semantic entailment. We developed FALCON, a Fuzzy ALC Ontology Neural reasoner, which uses fuzzy logic operators to generate model structures for arbitrary ALC ontologies, and uses multiple model structures to compute faithful semantic entailments. Theoretical results show that FALCON faithfully approximates semantic entailment over ALC ontologies and therefore endows neural networks with world models and the ability to reason over them. Experimental results show that FALCON enables approximate reasoning, paraconsistent reasoning (reasoning with inconsistencies), and improves machine learning in the biomedical domain by incorporating knowledge expressed in ALC.

Multi-label classification can effectively identify the relevant labels of an instance from a given set of labels. However,the modeling of the relationship between the features and the labels is critical to the classification performance. To this end, we propose a new multi-label classification method, called Multi-Label Takagi-Sugeno-Kang Fuzzy System (ML-TSK FS), to improve the classification performance. The structure of ML-TSK FS is designed using fuzzy rules to model the relationship between features and labels. The fuzzy system is trained by integrating fuzzy inference based multi-label correlation learning with multi-label regression loss. The proposed ML-TSK FS is evaluated experimentally on 12 benchmark multi-label datasets. 1 The results show that the performance of ML-TSK FS is competitive with existing methods in terms of various evaluation metrics, indicating that it is able to model the feature-label relationship effectively using fuzzy inference rules and enhances the classification performance.

The rapid and massive diffusion of electric vehicles poses new challenges to the electric system, which must be able to supply these new loads, but at the same time opens up new opportunities thanks to the possible provision of ancillary services. Indeed, in the so-called Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) set-up, the charging power can be modulated throughout the day so that a fleet of vehicles can absorb an excess of power from the grid or provide extra power during a shortage.To this end, many works in the literature focus on the optimization of each vehicle daily charging profiles to offer the requested ancillary services while guaranteeing a charged battery for each vehicle at the end of the day. However, the size of the economic benefits related to the provision of ancillary services varies significantly with the modeling approaches, different assumptions, and considered scenarios. In this paper we propose a profitability analysis with reference to a recently proposed framework for V2G optimal operation in presence of uncertainty. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for profitability in a simplified case and we show via simulation that they also hold for the general case.

This paper addresses the prediction stability, prediction accuracy and control capability of the current probabilistic model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) built on neural networks. A novel approach dropout-based probabilistic ensembles with trajectory sampling (DPETS) is proposed where the system uncertainty is stably predicted by combining the Monte-Carlo dropout and trajectory sampling in one framework. Its loss function is designed to correct the fitting error of neural networks for more accurate prediction of probabilistic models. The state propagation in its policy is extended to filter the aleatoric uncertainty for superior control capability. Evaluated by several Mujoco benchmark control tasks under additional disturbances and one practical robot arm manipulation task, DPETS outperforms related MBRL approaches in both average return and convergence velocity while achieving superior performance than well-known model-free baselines with significant sample efficiency. The open source code of DPETS is available at https://github.com/mrjun123/DPETS.

Privacy-preserving crowd density analysis finds application across a wide range of scenarios, substantially enhancing smart building operation and management while upholding privacy expectations in various spaces. We propose a non-speech audio-based approach for crowd analytics, leveraging a transformer-based model. Our results demonstrate that non-speech audio alone can be used to conduct such analysis with remarkable accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time when non-speech audio signals are proposed for predicting occupancy. As far as we know, there has been no other similar approach of its kind prior to this. To accomplish this, we deployed our sensor-based platform in the waiting room of a large hospital with IRB approval over a period of several months to capture non-speech audio and thermal images for the training and evaluation of our models. The proposed non-speech-based approach outperformed the thermal camera-based model and all other baselines. In addition to demonstrating superior performance without utilizing speech audio, we conduct further analysis using differential privacy techniques to provide additional privacy guarantees. Overall, our work demonstrates the viability of employing non-speech audio data for accurate occupancy estimation, while also ensuring the exclusion of speech-related content and providing robust privacy protections through differential privacy guarantees.

Fuzzy systems (FSs) have enjoyed wide applications in various fields, including pattern recognition, intelligent control, data mining and bioinformatics, which is attributed to the strong interpretation and learning ability. In traditional application scenarios, FSs are mainly applied to model Euclidean space data and cannot be used to handle graph data of non-Euclidean structure in nature, such as social networks and traffic route maps. Therefore, development of FS modeling method that is suitable for graph data and can retain the advantages of traditional FSs is an important research. To meet this challenge, a new type of FS for graph data modeling called Graph Fuzzy System (GFS) is proposed in this paper, where the concepts, modeling framework and construction algorithms are systematically developed. First, GFS related concepts, including graph fuzzy rule base, graph fuzzy sets and graph consequent processing unit (GCPU), are defined. A GFS modeling framework is then constructed and the antecedents and consequents of the GFS are presented and analyzed. Finally, a learning framework of GFS is proposed, in which a kernel K-prototype graph clustering (K2PGC) is proposed to develop the construction algorithm for the GFS antecedent generation, and then based on graph neural network (GNNs), consequent parameters learning algorithm is proposed for GFS. Specifically, three different versions of the GFS implementation algorithm are developed for comprehensive evaluations with experiments on various benchmark graph classification datasets. The results demonstrate that the proposed GFS inherits the advantages of both existing mainstream GNNs methods and conventional FSs methods while achieving better performance than the counterparts.

This work describes the TrueLearn Python library, which contains a family of online learning Bayesian models for building educational (or more generally, informational) recommendation systems. This family of models was designed following the "open learner" concept, using humanly-intuitive user representations. For the sake of interpretability and putting the user in control, the TrueLearn library also contains different representations to help end-users visualise the learner models, which may in the future facilitate user interaction with their own models. Together with the library, we include a previously publicly released implicit feedback educational dataset with evaluation metrics to measure the performance of the models. The extensive documentation and coding examples make the library highly accessible to both machine learning developers and educational data mining and learning analytic practitioners. The library and the support documentation with examples are available at https://truelearn.readthedocs.io/en/latest.

For many scientific inverse problems we are required to evaluate an expensive forward model. Moreover, the model is often given in such a form that it is unrealistic to access its gradients. In such a scenario, standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms quickly become impractical, requiring a large number of serial model evaluations to converge on the target distribution. In this paper we introduce Flow Annealed Kalman Inversion (FAKI). This is a generalization of Ensemble Kalman Inversion (EKI), where we embed the Kalman filter updates in a temperature annealing scheme, and use normalizing flows (NF) to map the intermediate measures corresponding to each temperature level to the standard Gaussian. In doing so, we relax the Gaussian ansatz for the intermediate measures used in standard EKI, allowing us to achieve higher fidelity approximations to non-Gaussian targets. We demonstrate the performance of FAKI on two numerical benchmarks, showing dramatic improvements over standard EKI in terms of accuracy whilst accelerating its already rapid convergence properties (typically in $\mathcal{O}(10)$ steps).

Mathematical models of cognition are often memoryless and ignore potential fluctuations of their parameters. However, human cognition is inherently dynamic. Thus, we propose to augment mechanistic cognitive models with a temporal dimension and estimate the resulting dynamics from a superstatistics perspective. Such a model entails a hierarchy between a low-level observation model and a high-level transition model. The observation model describes the local behavior of a system, and the transition model specifies how the parameters of the observation model evolve over time. To overcome the estimation challenges resulting from the complexity of superstatistical models, we develop and validate a simulation-based deep learning method for Bayesian inference, which can recover both time-varying and time-invariant parameters. We first benchmark our method against two existing frameworks capable of estimating time-varying parameters. We then apply our method to fit a dynamic version of the diffusion decision model to long time series of human response times data. Our results show that the deep learning approach is very efficient in capturing the temporal dynamics of the model. Furthermore, we show that the erroneous assumption of static or homogeneous parameters will hide important temporal information.