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 Uncertainty


Statistical physics, Bayesian inference and neural information processing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Lecture notes from the course given by Professor Sara A. Solla at the Les Houches summer school on "Statistical physics of Machine Learning". The notes discuss neural information processing through the lens of Statistical Physics. Contents include Bayesian inference and its connection to a Gibbs description of learning and generalization, Generalized Linear Models as a controlled alternative to backpropagation through time, and linear and non-linear techniques for dimensionality reduction.


Understanding Augmentation-based Self-Supervised Representation Learning via RKHS Approximation and Regression

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Data augmentation is critical to the empirical success of modern self-supervised representation learning, such as contrastive learning and masked language modeling. However, a theoretical understanding of the exact role of augmentation remains limited. Recent work has built the connection between self-supervised learning and the approximation of the top eigenspace of a graph Laplacian operator, suggesting that learning a linear probe atop such representation can be connected to RKHS regression. Building on this insight, this work delves into a statistical analysis of augmentation-based pretraining. Starting from the isometry property, a geometric characterization of the target function given by the augmentation, we disentangle the effects of the model and the augmentation, and prove two generalization bounds that are free of model complexity. Our first bound works for an arbitrary encoder, where the prediction error is decomposed as the sum of an estimation error incurred by fitting a linear probe with RKHS regression, and an approximation error entailed by RKHS approximation. Our second bound specifically addresses the case where the encoder is near-optimal, that is it approximates the top-d eigenspace of the RKHS induced by the augmentation. A key ingredient in our analysis is the augmentation complexity, which we use to quantitatively compare different augmentations and analyze their impact on downstream performance. It is widely acknowledged that better data augmentation techniques have been a major driving force in many recent breakthroughs in self-supervised representation learning. For example, contrastive learning (Chen et al., 2020) with aggressive random cropping and strong color distortion greatly improves the performance of vision tasks, and masked prediction with random masking and replacement is among the state-of-the-art representation learning methods for both natural language processing (Devlin et al., 2019) and vision (He et al., 2022). Due to their extraordinary empirical successes, developing a rigorous theoretical understanding of augmentation-based representation learning is an important open problem, and is crucial for inventing new, better and principled augmentation techniques. A key advance was recently made by HaoChen et al. (2021), who analyzed a variant of contrastive representation learning, termed spectral contrastive learning, by connecting it to learning eigenfunctions of a Laplacian operator over a population augmentation graph. This has been followed up by multiple works which extended these results to more general contrastive learning approaches (Saunshi et al., 2022; Johnson et al., 2023; Cabannes et al., 2023).


Provable Offline Preference-Based Reinforcement Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In this paper, we investigate the problem of offline Preference-based Reinforcement Learning (PbRL) with human feedback where feedback is available in the form of preference between trajectory pairs rather than explicit rewards. Our proposed algorithm consists of two main steps: (1) estimate the implicit reward using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) with general function approximation from offline data and (2) solve a distributionally robust planning problem over a confidence set around the MLE. We consider the general reward setting where the reward can be defined over the whole trajectory and provide a novel guarantee that allows us to learn any target policy with a polynomial number of samples, as long as the target policy is covered by the offline data. This guarantee is the first of its kind with general function approximation. To measure the coverage of the target policy, we introduce a new single-policy concentrability coefficient, which can be upper bounded by the per-trajectory concentrability coefficient. We also establish lower bounds that highlight the necessity of such concentrability and the difference from standard RL, where state-action-wise rewards are directly observed. We further extend and analyze our algorithm when the feedback is given over action pairs.


A Variational Perspective on Solving Inverse Problems with Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Diffusion models have emerged as a key pillar of foundation models in visual domains. One of their critical applications is to universally solve different downstream inverse tasks via a single diffusion prior without re-training for each task. Most inverse tasks can be formulated as inferring a posterior distribution over data (e.g., a full image) given a measurement (e.g., a masked image). This is however challenging in diffusion models since the nonlinear and iterative nature of the diffusion process renders the posterior intractable. To cope with this challenge, we propose a variational approach that by design seeks to approximate the true posterior distribution. We show that our approach naturally leads to regularization by denoising diffusion process (RED-Diff) where denoisers at different timesteps concurrently impose different structural constraints over the image. To gauge the contribution of denoisers from different timesteps, we propose a weighting mechanism based on signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR). Our approach provides a new variational perspective for solving inverse problems with diffusion models, allowing us to formulate sampling as stochastic optimization, where one can simply apply off-the-shelf solvers with lightweight iterates. Our experiments for image restoration tasks such as inpainting and superresolution demonstrate the strengths of our method compared with state-of-the-art sampling-based diffusion models.


Continuous-in-time Limit for Bayesian Bandits

arXiv.org Machine Learning

This paper revisits the bandit problem in the Bayesian setting. The Bayesian approach formulates the bandit problem as an optimization problem, and the goal is to find the optimal policy which minimizes the Bayesian regret. One of the main challenges facing the Bayesian approach is that computation of the optimal policy is often intractable, especially when the length of the problem horizon or the number of arms is large. In this paper, we first show that under a suitable rescaling, the Bayesian bandit problem converges toward a continuous Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. The optimal policy for the limiting HJB equation can be explicitly obtained for several common bandit problems, and we give numerical methods to solve the HJB equation when an explicit solution is not available. Based on these results, we propose an approximate Bayes-optimal policy for solving Bayesian bandit problems with large horizons. Our method has the added benefit that its computational cost does not increase as the horizon increases.


Minimising the Expected Posterior Entropy Yields Optimal Summary Statistics

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Extracting low-dimensional summary statistics from large datasets is essential for efficient (likelihood-free) inference. We characterise different classes of summaries and demonstrate their importance for correctly analysing dimensionality reduction algorithms. We propose obtaining summaries by minimising the expected posterior entropy (EPE) under the prior predictive distribution of the model. Many existing methods are equivalent to or are special or limiting cases of minimising the EPE. We develop a method to obtain high-fidelity summaries that minimise the EPE; we apply it to benchmark and real-world examples. We both offer a unifying perspective for obtaining informative summaries and provide concrete recommendations for practitioners.


Flexible and efficient spatial extremes emulation via variational autoencoders

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Many real-world processes have complex tail dependence structures that cannot be characterized using classical Gaussian processes. More flexible spatial extremes models exhibit appealing extremal dependence properties but are often exceedingly prohibitive to fit and simulate from in high dimensions. In this paper, we develop a new spatial extremes model that has flexible and non-stationary dependence properties, and we integrate it in the encoding-decoding structure of a variational autoencoder (XVAE), whose parameters are estimated via variational Bayes combined with deep learning. The XVAE can be used as a spatio-temporal emulator that characterizes the distribution of potential mechanistic model output states and produces outputs that have the same statistical properties as the inputs, especially in the tail. As an aside, our approach also provides a novel way of making fast inference with complex extreme-value processes. Through extensive simulation studies, we show that our XVAE is substantially more time-efficient than traditional Bayesian inference while also outperforming many spatial extremes models with a stationary dependence structure. To further demonstrate the computational power of the XVAE, we analyze a high-resolution satellite-derived dataset of sea surface temperature in the Red Sea, which includes 30 years of daily measurements at 16703 grid cells. We find that the extremal dependence strength is weaker in the interior of Red Sea and it has decreased slightly over time.


A Primer on Bayesian Neural Networks: Review and Debates

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural networks have achieved remarkable performance across various problem domains, but their widespread applicability is hindered by inherent limitations such as overconfidence in predictions, lack of interpretability, and vulnerability to adversarial attacks. To address these challenges, Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) have emerged as a compelling extension of conventional neural networks, integrating uncertainty estimation into their predictive capabilities. This comprehensive primer presents a systematic introduction to the fundamental concepts of neural networks and Bayesian inference, elucidating their synergistic integration for the development of BNNs. The target audience comprises statisticians with a potential background in Bayesian methods but lacking deep learning expertise, as well as machine learners proficient in deep neural networks but with limited exposure to Bayesian statistics. We provide an overview of commonly employed priors, examining their impact on model behavior and performance. Additionally, we delve into the practical considerations associated with training and inference in BNNs. Furthermore, we explore advanced topics within the realm of BNN research, acknowledging the existence of ongoing debates and controversies. By offering insights into cutting-edge developments, this primer not only equips researchers and practitioners with a solid foundation in BNNs, but also illuminates the potential applications of this dynamic field. As a valuable resource, it fosters an understanding of BNNs and their promising prospects, facilitating further advancements in the pursuit of knowledge and innovation.


Stochastic Implicit Neural Signed Distance Functions for Safe Motion Planning under Sensing Uncertainty

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motion planning under sensing uncertainty is critical for robots in unstructured environments to guarantee safety for both the robot and any nearby humans. Most work on planning under uncertainty does not scale to high-dimensional robots such as manipulators, assumes simplified geometry of the robot or environment, or requires per-object knowledge of noise. Instead, we propose a method that directly models sensor-specific aleatoric uncertainty to find safe motions for high-dimensional systems in complex environments, without exact knowledge of environment geometry. We combine a novel implicit neural model of stochastic signed distance functions with a hierarchical optimization-based motion planner to plan low-risk motions without sacrificing path quality. Our method also explicitly bounds the risk of the path, offering trustworthiness. We empirically validate that our method produces safe motions and accurate risk bounds and is safer than baseline approaches.


Multi-Bellman operator for convergence of $Q$-learning with linear function approximation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

We study the convergence of $Q$-learning with linear function approximation. Our key contribution is the introduction of a novel multi-Bellman operator that extends the traditional Bellman operator. By exploring the properties of this operator, we identify conditions under which the projected multi-Bellman operator becomes contractive, providing improved fixed-point guarantees compared to the Bellman operator. To leverage these insights, we propose the multi $Q$-learning algorithm with linear function approximation. We demonstrate that this algorithm converges to the fixed-point of the projected multi-Bellman operator, yielding solutions of arbitrary accuracy. Finally, we validate our approach by applying it to well-known environments, showcasing the effectiveness and applicability of our findings.