Uncertainty
L-C2ST: Local Diagnostics for Posterior Approximations in Simulation-Based Inference
Linhart, Julia, Gramfort, Alexandre, Rodrigues, Pedro L. C.
Many recent works in simulation-based inference (SBI) rely on deep generative models to approximate complex, high-dimensional posterior distributions. However, evaluating whether or not these approximations can be trusted remains a challenge. Most approaches evaluate the posterior estimator only in expectation over the observation space. This limits their interpretability and is not sufficient to identify for which observations the approximation can be trusted or should be improved. Building upon the well-known classifier two-sample test (C2ST), we introduce L-C2ST, a new method that allows for a local evaluation of the posterior estimator at any given observation. It offers theoretically grounded and easy to interpret -- e.g. graphical -- diagnostics, and unlike C2ST, does not require access to samples from the true posterior. In the case of normalizing flow-based posterior estimators, L-C2ST can be specialized to offer better statistical power, while being computationally more efficient. On standard SBI benchmarks, L-C2ST provides comparable results to C2ST and outperforms alternative local approaches such as coverage tests based on highest predictive density (HPD). We further highlight the importance of local evaluation and the benefit of interpretability of L-C2ST on a challenging application from computational neuroscience.
Efficient Hybrid Oversampling and Intelligent Undersampling for Imbalanced Big Data Classification
Vairetti, Carla, Assadi, José Luis, Maldonado, Sebastián
Imbalanced classification is a well-known challenge faced by many real-world applications. This issue occurs when the distribution of the target variable is skewed, leading to a prediction bias toward the majority class. With the arrival of the Big Data era, there is a pressing need for efficient solutions to solve this problem. In this work, we present a novel resampling method called SMOTENN that combines intelligent undersampling and oversampling using a MapReduce framework. Both procedures are performed on the same pass over the data, conferring efficiency to the technique. The SMOTENN method is complemented with an efficient implementation of the neighborhoods related to the minority samples. Our experimental results show the virtues of this approach, outperforming alternative resampling techniques for small- and medium-sized datasets while achieving positive results on large datasets with reduced running times.
Adaptive Multi-head Contrastive Learning
Wang, Lei, Koniusz, Piotr, Gedeon, Tom, Zheng, Liang
In contrastive learning, two views of an original image generated by different augmentations are considered as a positive pair whose similarity is required to be high. Moreover, two views of two different images are considered as a negative pair, and their similarity is encouraged to be low. Normally, a single similarity measure given by a single projection head is used to evaluate positive and negative sample pairs, respectively. However, due to the various augmentation strategies and varying intra-sample similarity, augmented views from the same image are often not similar. Moreover, due to inter-sample similarity, augmented views of two different images may be more similar than augmented views from the same image. As such, enforcing a high similarity for positive pairs and a low similarity for negative pairs may not always be achievable, and in the case of some pairs, forcing so may be detrimental to the performance. To address this issue, we propose to use multiple projection heads, each producing a separate set of features. Our loss function for pre-training emerges from a solution to the maximum likelihood estimation over head-wise posterior distributions of positive samples given observations. The loss contains the similarity measure over positive and negative pairs, each re-weighted by an individual adaptive temperature that is regularized to prevent ill solutions. Our adaptive multi-head contrastive learning (AMCL) can be applied to and experimentally improves several popular contrastive learning methods such as SimCLR, MoCo and Barlow Twins. Such improvement is consistent under various backbones and linear probing epoches and is more significant when multiple augmentation methods are used.
Accelerating optimization over the space of probability measures
Chen, Shi, Li, Qin, Tse, Oliver, Wright, Stephen J.
Acceleration of gradient-based optimization methods is an issue of significant practical and theoretical interest, particularly in machine learning applications. Most research has focused on optimization over Euclidean spaces, but given the need to optimize over spaces of probability measures in many machine learning problems, it is of interest to investigate accelerated gradient methods in this context too. To this end, we introduce a Hamiltonian-flow approach that is analogous to moment-based approaches in Euclidean space. We demonstrate that algorithms based on this approach can achieve convergence rates of arbitrarily high order. Numerical examples illustrate our claim.
IBCL: Zero-shot Model Generation for Task Trade-offs in Continual Learning
Lu, Pengyuan, Caprio, Michele, Eaton, Eric, Lee, Insup
Like generic multi-task learning, continual learning has the nature of multi-objective optimization, and therefore faces a trade-off between the performance of different tasks. That is, to optimize for the current task distribution, it may need to compromise performance on some previous tasks. This means that there exist multiple models that are Pareto-optimal at different times, each addressing a distinct task performance trade-off. Researchers have discussed how to train particular models to address specific trade-off preferences. However, existing algorithms require training overheads proportional to the number of preferences -- a large burden when there are multiple, possibly infinitely many, preferences. As a response, we propose Imprecise Bayesian Continual Learning (IBCL). Upon a new task, IBCL (1) updates a knowledge base in the form of a convex hull of model parameter distributions and (2) obtains particular models to address task trade-off preferences with zero-shot. That is, IBCL does not require any additional training overhead to generate preference-addressing models from its knowledge base. We show that models obtained by IBCL have guarantees in identifying the Pareto optimal parameters. Moreover, experiments on standard image classification and NLP tasks support this guarantee. Statistically, IBCL improves average per-task accuracy by at most 23% and peak per-task accuracy by at most 15% with respect to the baseline methods, with steadily near-zero or positive backward transfer. Most importantly, IBCL significantly reduces the training overhead from training 1 model per preference to at most 3 models for all preferences.
Bayesian Renormalization
Berman, David S., Klinger, Marc S., Stapleton, Alexander G.
In this note we present a fully information theoretic approach to renormalization inspired by Bayesian statistical inference, which we refer to as Bayesian Renormalization. The main insight of Bayesian Renormalization is that the Fisher metric defines a correlation length that plays the role of an emergent RG scale quantifying the distinguishability between nearby points in the space of probability distributions. This RG scale can be interpreted as a proxy for the maximum number of unique observations that can be made about a given system during a statistical inference experiment. The role of the Bayesian Renormalization scheme is subsequently to prepare an effective model for a given system up to a precision which is bounded by the aforementioned scale. In applications of Bayesian Renormalization to physical systems, the emergent information theoretic scale is naturally identified with the maximum energy that can be probed by current experimental apparatus, and thus Bayesian Renormalization coincides with ordinary renormalization. However, Bayesian Renormalization is sufficiently general to apply even in circumstances in which an immediate physical scale is absent, and thus provides an ideal approach to renormalization in data science contexts. To this end, we provide insight into how the Bayesian Renormalization scheme relates to existing methods for data compression and data generation such as the information bottleneck and the diffusion learning paradigm. We conclude by designing an explicit form of Bayesian Renormalization inspired by Wilson's momentum shell renormalization scheme in Quantum Field Theory. We apply this Bayesian Renormalization scheme to a simple Neural Network and verify the sense in which it organizes the parameters of the model according to a hierarchy of information theoretic importance.
Learning domain-specific causal discovery from time series
Wang, Xinyue, Kording, Konrad Paul
Causal discovery (CD) from time-varying data is important in neuroscience, medicine, and machine learning. Techniques for CD encompass randomized experiments, which are generally unbiased but expensive, and algorithms such as Granger causality, conditional-independence-based, structural-equation-based, and score-based methods that are only accurate under strong assumptions made by human designers. However, as demonstrated in other areas of machine learning, human expertise is often not entirely accurate and tends to be outperformed in domains with abundant data. In this study, we examine whether we can enhance domain-specific causal discovery for time series using a data-driven approach. Our findings indicate that this procedure significantly outperforms human-designed, domain-agnostic causal discovery methods, such as Mutual Information, VAR-LiNGAM, and Granger Causality on the MOS 6502 microprocessor, the NetSim fMRI dataset, and the Dream3 gene dataset. We argue that, when feasible, the causality field should consider a supervised approach in which domain-specific CD procedures are learned from extensive datasets with known causal relationships, rather than being designed by human specialists. Our findings promise a new approach toward improving CD in neural and medical data and for the broader machine learning community.
A Bayesian framework for discovering interpretable Lagrangian of dynamical systems from data
Tripura, Tapas, Chakraborty, Souvik
Learning and predicting the dynamics of physical systems requires a profound understanding of the underlying physical laws. Recent works on learning physical laws involve generalizing the equation discovery frameworks to the discovery of Hamiltonian and Lagrangian of physical systems. While the existing methods parameterize the Lagrangian using neural networks, we propose an alternate framework for learning interpretable Lagrangian descriptions of physical systems from limited data using the sparse Bayesian approach. Unlike existing neural network-based approaches, the proposed approach (a) yields an interpretable description of Lagrangian, (b) exploits Bayesian learning to quantify the epistemic uncertainty due to limited data, (c) automates the distillation of Hamiltonian from the learned Lagrangian using Legendre transformation, and (d) provides ordinary (ODE) and partial differential equation (PDE) based descriptions of the observed systems. Six different examples involving both discrete and continuous system illustrates the efficacy of the proposed approach.
Learning Layer-wise Equivariances Automatically using Gradients
van der Ouderaa, Tycho F. A., Immer, Alexander, van der Wilk, Mark
However, symmetries provide fixed hard constraints on the functions a network can represent, need to be specified in advance, and can not be adapted. Our goal is to allow flexible symmetry constraints that can automatically be learned from data using gradients. Learning symmetry and associated weight connectivity structures from scratch is difficult for two reasons. First, it requires efficient and flexible parameterisations of layer-wise equivariances. Secondly, symmetries act as constraints and are therefore not encouraged by training losses measuring data fit. To overcome these challenges, we improve parameterisations of soft equivariance and learn the amount of equivariance in layers by optimising the marginal likelihood, estimated using differentiable Laplace approximations. The objective balances data fit and model complexity enabling layer-wise symmetry discovery in deep networks. We demonstrate the ability to automatically learn layer-wise equivariances on image classification tasks, achieving equivalent or improved performance over baselines with hard-coded symmetry.
Causal structure learning with momentum: Sampling distributions over Markov Equivalence Classes of DAGs
Schauer, Moritz, Wienöbst, Marcel
In the context of inferring a Bayesian network structure (directed acyclic graph, DAG for short), we devise a non-reversible continuous time Markov chain, the "Causal Zig-Zag sampler", that targets a probability distribution over classes of observationally equivalent (Markov equivalent) DAGs. The classes are represented as completed partially directed acyclic graphs (CPDAGs). The non-reversible Markov chain relies on the operators used in Chickering's Greedy Equivalence Search (GES) and is endowed with a momentum variable, which improves mixing significantly as we show empirically. The possible target distributions include posterior distributions based on a prior over DAGs and a Markov equivalent likelihood. We offer an efficient implementation wherein we develop new algorithms for listing, counting, uniformly sampling, and applying possible moves of the GES operators, all of which significantly improve upon the state-of-the-art.