Planning under uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in robotics. For multi-robot teams, the challenge is further exacerbated, since the planning problem can quickly become computationally intractable as the number of robots increase. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for planning under uncertainty using heterogeneous multi-robot teams. In particular, we leverage the notion of a dynamic topological graph and mixed-integer programming to generate multi-robot plans that deploy fast scout team members to reduce uncertainty about the environment. We test our approach in a number of representative scenarios where the robot team must move through an environment while minimizing detection in the presence of uncertain observer positions. We demonstrate that our approach is sufficiently computationally tractable for real-time re-planning in changing environments, can improve performance in the presence of imperfect information, and can be adjusted to accommodate different risk profiles.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Phylogenetics is a branch of computational biology that studies the evolutionary relationships among biological entities. Its long history and numerous applications notwithstanding, inference of phylogenetic trees from sequence data remains challenging: the high complexity of tree space poses a significant obstacle for the current combinatorial and probabilistic techniques. In this paper, we adopt the framework of generative flow networks (GFlowNets) to tackle two core problems in phylogenetics: parsimony-based and Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Because GFlowNets are well-suited for sampling complex combinatorial structures, they are a natural choice for exploring and sampling from the multimodal posterior distribution over tree topologies and evolutionary distances. We demonstrate that our amortized posterior sampler, PhyloGFN, produces diverse and high-quality evolutionary hypotheses on real benchmark datasets. PhyloGFN is competitive with prior works in marginal likelihood estimation and achieves a closer fit to the target distribution than state-of-the-art variational inference methods.

Classification models for electroencephalogram (EEG) data show a large decrease in performance when evaluated on unseen test sub jects. We reduce this performance decrease using new regularization techniques during model training. We propose several graphical models to describe an EEG classification task. From each model, we identify statistical relationships that should hold true in an idealized training scenario (with infinite data and a globally-optimal model) but that may not hold in practice. We design regularization penalties to enforce these relationships in two stages. First, we identify suitable proxy quantities (divergences such as Mutual Information and Wasserstein-1) that can be used to measure statistical independence and dependence relationships. Second, we provide algorithms to efficiently estimate these quantities during training using secondary neural network models. We conduct extensive computational experiments using a large benchmark EEG dataset, comparing our proposed techniques with a baseline method that uses an adversarial classifier. We find our proposed methods significantly increase balanced accuracy on test subjects and decrease overfitting. The proposed methods exhibit a larger benefit over a greater range of hyperparameters than the baseline method, with only a small computational cost at training time. These benefits are largest when used for a fixed training period, though there is still a significant benefit for a subset of hyperparameters when our techniques are used in conjunction with early stopping regularization.

Heavy tails is a common feature of filtering distributions that results from the nonlinear dynamical and observation processes as well as the uncertainty from physical sensors. In these settings, the Kalman filter and its ensemble version - the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) - that have been designed under Gaussian assumptions result in degraded performance. t-distributions are a parametric family of distributions whose tail-heaviness is modulated by a degree of freedom $\nu$. Interestingly, Cauchy and Gaussian distributions correspond to the extreme cases of a t-distribution for $\nu = 1$ and $\nu = \infty$, respectively. Leveraging tools from measure transport (Spantini et al., SIAM Review, 2022), we present a generalization of the EnKF whose prior-to-posterior update leads to exact inference for t-distributions. We demonstrate that this filter is less sensitive to outlying synthetic observations generated by the observation model for small $\nu$. Moreover, it recovers the Kalman filter for $\nu = \infty$. For nonlinear state-space models with heavy-tailed noise, we propose an algorithm to estimate the prior-to-posterior update from samples of joint forecast distribution of the states and observations. We rely on a regularized expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the mean, scale matrix, and degree of freedom of heavy-tailed \textit{t}-distributions from limited samples (Finegold and Drton, arXiv preprint, 2014). Leveraging the conditional independence of the joint forecast distribution, we regularize the scale matrix with an $l1$ sparsity-promoting penalization of the log-likelihood at each iteration of the EM algorithm. By sequentially estimating the degree of freedom at each analysis step, our filter can adapt its prior-to-posterior update to the tail-heaviness of the data. We demonstrate the benefits of this new ensemble filter on challenging filtering problems.

The distribution of the weights of modern deep neural networks (DNNs) - crucial for uncertainty quantification and robustness - is an eminently complex object due to its extremely high dimensionality. This paper proposes one of the first large-scale explorations of the posterior distribution of deep Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), expanding its study to real-world vision tasks and architectures. Specifically, we investigate the optimal approach for approximating the posterior, analyze the connection between posterior quality and uncertainty quantification, delve into the impact of modes on the posterior, and explore methods for visualizing the posterior. Moreover, we uncover weight-space symmetries as a critical aspect for understanding the posterior. To this extent, we develop an in-depth assessment of the impact of both permutation and scaling symmetries that tend to obfuscate the Bayesian posterior. While the first type of transformation is known for duplicating modes, we explore the relationship between the latter and L2 regularization, challenging previous misconceptions. Finally, to help the community improve our understanding of the Bayesian posterior, we will shortly release the first large-scale checkpoint dataset, including thousands of real-world models and our codes.

Estimating the counterfactual outcome of treatment is essential for decision-making in public health and clinical science, among others. Often, treatments are administered in a sequential, time-varying manner, leading to an exponentially increased number of possible counterfactual outcomes. Furthermore, in modern applications, the outcomes are high-dimensional and conventional average treatment effect estimation fails to capture disparities in individuals. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel conditional generative framework capable of producing counterfactual samples under time-varying treatment, without the need for explicit density estimation. Our method carefully addresses the distribution mismatch between the observed and counterfactual distributions via a loss function based on inverse probability weighting. We present a thorough evaluation of our method using both synthetic and real-world data. Our results demonstrate that our method is capable of generating high-quality counterfactual samples and outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines.

Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods for sampling from complex distributions and estimating normalization constants often simulate samples from a sequence of intermediate distributions along an annealing path, which bridges between a tractable initial distribution and a target density of interest. Prior work has constructed annealing paths using quasi-arithmetic means, and interpreted the resulting intermediate densities as minimizing an expected divergence to the endpoints. We provide a comprehensive analysis of this 'centroid' property using Bregman divergences under a monotonic embedding of the density function, thereby associating common divergences such as Amari's and Renyi's ${\alpha}$-divergences, ${(\alpha,\beta)}$-divergences, and the Jensen-Shannon divergence with intermediate densities along an annealing path. Our analysis highlights the interplay between parametric families, quasi-arithmetic means, and divergence functions using the rho-tau Bregman divergence framework of Zhang 2004,2013.

Understanding the power of parameterized quantum circuits (PQCs) in accomplishing machine learning tasks is one of the most important questions in quantum machine learning. In this paper, we analyze the expressivity of PQCs through the lens of function approximation. Previously established universal approximation theorems for PQCs are mainly nonconstructive, leading us to the following question: How large do the PQCs need to be to approximate the target function up to a given error? We exhibit explicit constructions of data re-uploading PQCs for approximating continuous and smooth functions and establish quantitative approximation error bounds in terms of the width, the depth and the number of trainable parameters of the PQCs. To achieve this, we utilize techniques from quantum signal processing and linear combinations of unitaries to construct PQCs that implement multivariate polynomials. We implement global and local approximation techniques using Bernstein polynomials and local Taylor expansion and analyze their performances in the quantum setting. We also compare our proposed PQCs to nearly optimal deep neural networks in approximating high-dimensional smooth functions, showing that the ratio between model sizes of PQC and deep neural networks is exponentially small with respect to the input dimension. This suggests a potentially novel avenue for showcasing quantum advantages in quantum machine learning.

Merging into dense highway traffic for an autonomous vehicle is a complex decision-making task, wherein the vehicle must identify a potential gap and coordinate with surrounding human drivers, each of whom may exhibit diverse driving behaviors. Many existing methods consider other drivers to be dynamic obstacles and, as a result, are incapable of capturing the full intent of the human drivers via this passive planning. In this paper, we propose a novel dual control framework based on Model Predictive Path-Integral control to generate interactive trajectories. This framework incorporates a Bayesian inference approach to actively learn the agents' parameters, i.e., other drivers' model parameters. The proposed framework employs a sampling-based approach that is suitable for real-time implementation through the utilization of GPUs. We illustrate the effectiveness of our proposed methodology through comprehensive numerical simulations conducted in both high and low-fidelity simulation scenarios focusing on autonomous on-ramp merging.