Variational flows allow practitioners to learn complex continuous distributions, but approximating discrete distributions remains a challenge. Current methodologies typically embed the discrete target in a continuous space - usually via continuous relaxation or dequantization - and then apply a continuous flow. These approaches involve a surrogate target that may not capture the original discrete target, might have biased or unstable gradients, and can create a difficult optimization problem. In this work, we develop a variational flow family for discrete distributions without any continuous embedding. First, we develop a measure-preserving and discrete (MAD) invertible map that leaves the discrete target invariant, and then create a mixed variational flow (MAD Mix) based on that map. Our family provides access to i.i.d. sampling and density evaluation with virtually no tuning effort. We also develop an extension to MAD Mix that handles joint discrete and continuous models. Our experiments suggest that MAD Mix produces more reliable approximations than continuous-embedding flows while being significantly faster to train.

Quantifying the uncertainty of quantities of interest (QoIs) from physical systems is a primary objective in model validation. However, achieving this goal entails balancing the need for computational efficiency with the requirement for numerical accuracy. To address this trade-off, we propose a novel bi-fidelity formulation of variational auto-encoders (BF-VAE) designed to estimate the uncertainty associated with a QoI from low-fidelity (LF) and high-fidelity (HF) samples of the QoI. This model allows for the approximation of the statistics of the HF QoI by leveraging information derived from its LF counterpart. Specifically, we design a bi-fidelity auto-regressive model in the latent space that is integrated within the VAE's probabilistic encoder-decoder structure. An effective algorithm is proposed to maximize the variational lower bound of the HF log-likelihood in the presence of limited HF data, resulting in the synthesis of HF realizations with a reduced computational cost. Additionally, we introduce the concept of the bi-fidelity information bottleneck (BF-IB) to provide an information-theoretic interpretation of the proposed BF-VAE model. Our numerical results demonstrate that BF-VAE leads to considerably improved accuracy, as compared to a VAE trained using only HF data, when limited HF data is available.

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a widely used framework for community detection in networks, where the network structure is typically represented by an adjacency matrix. However, conventional SBMs are not directly applicable to an adjacency matrix that consists of non-negative zero-inflated continuous edge weights. To model the international trading network, where edge weights represent trading values between countries, we propose an innovative SBM based on a restricted Tweedie distribution. Additionally, we incorporate nodal information, such as the geographical distance between countries, and account for its dynamic effect on edge weights. Notably, we show that given a sufficiently large number of nodes, estimating this covariate effect becomes independent of community labels of each node when computing the maximum likelihood estimator of parameters in our model. This result enables the development of an efficient two-step algorithm that separates the estimation of covariate effects from other parameters. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method through extensive simulation studies and an application to real-world international trading data.

The majority of data assimilation (DA) methods in the geosciences are based on Gaussian assumptions. While these assumptions facilitate efficient algorithms, they cause analysis biases and subsequent forecast degradations. Non-parametric, particle-based DA algorithms have superior accuracy, but their application to high-dimensional models still poses operational challenges. Drawing inspiration from recent advances in the field of generative artificial intelligence (AI), this article introduces a new nonlinear estimation theory which attempts to bridge the existing gap in DA methodology. Specifically, a Conjugate Transform Filter (CTF) is derived and shown to generalize the celebrated Kalman filter to arbitrarily non-Gaussian distributions. The new filter has several desirable properties, such as its ability to preserve statistical relationships in the prior state and convergence to highly accurate observations. An ensemble approximation of the new theory (ECTF) is also presented and validated using idealized statistical experiments that feature bounded quantities with non-Gaussian distributions, a prevalent challenge in Earth system models. Results from these experiments indicate that the greatest benefits from ECTF occur when observation errors are small relative to the forecast uncertainty and when state variables exhibit strong nonlinear dependencies. Ultimately, the new filtering theory offers exciting avenues for improving conventional DA algorithms through their principled integration with AI techniques.

Automated event detection has emerged as one of the fundamental practices to monitor the behavior of technical systems by means of sensor data. In the automotive industry, these methods are in high demand for tracing events in time series data. For assessing the active vehicle safety systems, a diverse range of driving scenarios is conducted. These scenarios involve the recording of the vehicle's behavior using external sensors, enabling the evaluation of operational performance. In such setting, automated detection methods not only accelerate but also standardize and objectify the evaluation by avoiding subjective, human-based appraisals in the data inspection. This work proposes a novel event detection method that allows to identify frequency-based events in time series data. To this aim, the time series data is mapped to representations in the time-frequency domain, known as scalograms. After filtering scalograms to enhance relevant parts of the signal, an object detection model is trained to detect the desired event objects in the scalograms. For the analysis of unseen time series data, events can be detected in their scalograms with the trained object detection model and are thereafter mapped back to the time series data to mark the corresponding time interval. The algorithm, evaluated on unseen datasets, achieves a precision rate of 0.97 in event detection, providing sharp time interval boundaries whose accurate indication by human visual inspection is challenging. Incorporating this method into the vehicle development process enhances the accuracy and reliability of event detection, which holds major importance for rapid testing analysis.

Significant strides have been made in closed world 3D object detection, testing systems in environments with known classes. However, the challenge arises in open world scenarios where new object classes appear. Existing efforts sequentially learn novel classes from streams of labeled data at a significant annotation cost, impeding efficient deployment to the wild. To seek effective solutions, we investigate a more practical yet challenging research task: Open World Active Learning for 3D Object Detection (OWAL-3D), aiming at selecting a small number of 3D boxes to annotate while maximizing detection performance on both known and unknown classes. The core difficulty centers on striking a balance between mining more unknown instances and minimizing the labeling expenses of point clouds. Empirically, our study finds the harmonious and inverse relationship between box quantities and their confidences can help alleviate the dilemma, avoiding the repeated selection of common known instances and focusing on uncertain objects that are potentially unknown. We unify both relational constraints into a simple and effective AL strategy namely OpenCRB, which guides to acquisition of informative point clouds with the least amount of boxes to label. Furthermore, we develop a comprehensive codebase for easy reproducing and future research, supporting 15 baseline methods (i.e., active learning, out-of-distribution detection and open world detection), 2 types of modern 3D detectors (i.e., one-stage SECOND and two-stage PV-RCNN) and 3 benchmark 3D datasets (i.e., KITTI, nuScenes and Waymo). Extensive experiments evidence that the proposed Open-CRB demonstrates superiority and flexibility in recognizing both novel and shared categories with very limited labeling costs, compared to state-of-the-art baselines.

In scenarios with long-tailed distributions, the model's ability to identify tail classes is limited due to the under-representation of tail samples. Class rebalancing, information augmentation, and other techniques have been proposed to facilitate models to learn the potential distribution of tail classes. The disadvantage is that these methods generally pursue models with balanced class accuracy on the data manifold, while ignoring the ability of the model to resist interference. By constructing noisy data manifold, we found that the robustness of models trained on unbalanced data has a long-tail phenomenon. That is, even if the class accuracy is balanced on the data domain, it still has bias on the noisy data manifold. However, existing methods cannot effectively mitigate the above phenomenon, which makes the model vulnerable in long-tailed scenarios. In this work, we propose an Orthogonal Uncertainty Representation (OUR) of feature embedding and an end-to-end training strategy to improve the long-tail phenomenon of model robustness. As a general enhancement tool, OUR has excellent compatibility with other methods and does not require additional data generation, ensuring fast and efficient training. Comprehensive evaluations on long-tailed datasets show that our method significantly improves the long-tail phenomenon of robustness, bringing consistent performance gains to other long-tailed learning methods.

Causal inference from observational data is crucial for many disciplines such as medicine and economics. However, sharp bounds for causal effects under relaxations of the unconfoundedness assumption (causal sensitivity analysis) are subject to ongoing research. So far, works with sharp bounds are restricted to fairly simple settings (e.g., a single binary treatment). In this paper, we propose a unified framework for causal sensitivity analysis under unobserved confounding in various settings. For this, we propose a flexible generalization of the marginal sensitivity model (MSM) and then derive sharp bounds for a large class of causal effects. This includes (conditional) average treatment effects, effects for mediation analysis and path analysis, and distributional effects. Furthermore, our sensitivity model is applicable to discrete, continuous, and time-varying treatments. It allows us to interpret the partial identification problem under unobserved confounding as a distribution shift in the latent confounders while evaluating the causal effect of interest. In the special case of a single binary treatment, our bounds for (conditional) average treatment effects coincide with recent optimality results for causal sensitivity analysis. Finally, we propose a scalable algorithm to estimate our sharp bounds from observational data.

We propose derivative-informed neural operators (DINOs), a general family of neural networks to approximate operators as infinite-dimensional mappings from input function spaces to output function spaces or quantities of interest. After discretizations both inputs and outputs are high-dimensional. We aim to approximate not only the operators with improved accuracy but also their derivatives (Jacobians) with respect to the input function-valued parameter to empower derivative-based algorithms in many applications, e.g., Bayesian inverse problems, optimization under parameter uncertainty, and optimal experimental design. The major difficulties include the computational cost of generating derivative training data and the high dimensionality of the problem leading to large training cost. To address these challenges, we exploit the intrinsic low-dimensionality of the derivatives and develop algorithms for compressing derivative information and efficiently imposing it in neural operator training yielding derivative-informed neural operators. We demonstrate that these advances can significantly reduce the costs of both data generation and training for large classes of problems (e.g., nonlinear steady state parametric PDE maps), making the costs marginal or comparable to the costs without using derivatives, and in particular independent of the discretization dimension of the input and output functions. Moreover, we show that the proposed DINO achieves significantly higher accuracy than neural operators trained without derivative information, for both function approximation and derivative approximation (e.g., Gauss-Newton Hessian), especially when the training data are limited.

Density estimation, which estimates the distribution of data, is an important category of probabilistic machine learning. A family of density estimators is mixture models, such as Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) by expectation maximization. Another family of density estimators is the generative models which generate data from input latent variables. One of the generative models is the Masked Autoregressive Flow (MAF) which makes use of normalizing flows and autoregressive networks. In this paper, we use the density estimators for classification, although they are often used for estimating the distribution of data. We model the likelihood of classes of data by density estimation, specifically using GMM and MAF. The proposed classifiers outperform simpler classifiers such as linear discriminant analysis which model the likelihood using only a single Gaussian distribution. This work opens the research door for proposing other probabilistic classifiers based on joint density estimation.