Uncertainty
A Review of Prospects and Opportunities in Disassembly with Human-Robot Collaboration
Lee, Meng-Lun, Liang, Xiao, Hu, Boyi, Onel, Gulcan, Behdad, Sara, Zheng, Minghui
Product disassembly plays a crucial role in the recycling, remanufacturing, and reuse of end-of-use (EoU) products. However, the current manual disassembly process is inefficient due to the complexity and variation of EoU products. While fully automating disassembly is not economically viable given the intricate nature of the task, there is potential in using human-robot collaboration (HRC) to enhance disassembly operations. HRC combines the flexibility and problem-solving abilities of humans with the precise repetition and handling of unsafe tasks by robots. Nevertheless, numerous challenges persist in technology, human workers, and remanufacturing work, that require comprehensive multidisciplinary research to bridge critical gaps. These challenges have motivated the authors to provide a detailed discussion on the opportunities and obstacles associated with introducing HRC to disassembly. In this regard, the authors have conducted a thorough review of the recent progress in HRC disassembly and present the insights gained from this analysis from three distinct perspectives: technology, workers, and work.
Tree Search in DAG Space with Model-based Reinforcement Learning for Causal Discovery
Darvariu, Victor-Alexandru, Hailes, Stephen, Musolesi, Mirco
Identifying causal structure is central to many fields ranging from strategic decision-making to biology and economics. In this work, we propose a model-based reinforcement learning method for causal discovery based on tree search, which builds directed acyclic graphs incrementally. We also formalize and prove the correctness of an efficient algorithm for excluding edges that would introduce cycles, which enables deeper discrete search and sampling in DAG space. We evaluate our approach on two real-world tasks, achieving substantially better performance than the state-of-the-art model-free method and greedy search, constituting a promising advancement for combinatorial methods.
Elastic Decision Transformer
Wu, Yueh-Hua, Wang, Xiaolong, Hamaya, Masashi
This paper introduces Elastic Decision Transformer (EDT), a significant advancement over the existing Decision Transformer (DT) and its variants. Although DT purports to generate an optimal trajectory, empirical evidence suggests it struggles with trajectory stitching, a process involving the generation of an optimal or near-optimal trajectory from the best parts of a set of sub-optimal trajectories. The proposed EDT differentiates itself by facilitating trajectory stitching during action inference at test time, achieved by adjusting the history length maintained in DT. Further, the EDT optimizes the trajectory by retaining a longer history when the previous trajectory is optimal and a shorter one when it is sub-optimal, enabling it to "stitch" with a more optimal trajectory. Extensive experimentation demonstrates EDT's ability to bridge the performance gap between DT-based and Q Learning-based approaches. In particular, the EDT outperforms Q Learning-based methods in a multi-task regime on the D4RL locomotion benchmark and Atari games. Videos are available at: https://kristery.github.io/edt/.
Selected aspects of complex, hypercomplex and fuzzy neural networks
Niemczynowicz, Agnieszka, Kycia, Radosław A., Jaworski, Maciej, Siemaszko, Artur, Calabuig, Jose M., García-Raffi, Lluis M., Schneider, Baruch, Berseghyan, Diana, Perfiljeva, Irina, Novak, Vilem, Artiemjew, Piotr
This short report reviews the current state of the research and methodology on theoretical and practical aspects of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). It was prepared to gather state-of-the-art knowledge needed to construct complex, hypercomplex and fuzzy neural networks. The report reflects the individual interests of the authors and, by now means, cannot be treated as a comprehensive review of the ANN discipline. Considering the fast development of this field, it is currently impossible to do a detailed review of a considerable number of pages. The report is an outcome of the Project 'The Strategic Research Partnership for the mathematical aspects of complex, hypercomplex and fuzzy neural networks' meeting at the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, Poland, organized in September 2022.
Compositional Deep Probabilistic Models of DNA Encoded Libraries
Chen, Benson, Sultan, Mohammad M., Karaletsos, Theofanis
DNA-Encoded Library (DEL) has proven to be a powerful tool that utilizes combinatorially constructed small molecules to facilitate highly-efficient screening assays. These selection experiments, involving multiple stages of washing, elution, and identification of potent binders via unique DNA barcodes, often generate complex data. This complexity can potentially mask the underlying signals, necessitating the application of computational tools such as machine learning to uncover valuable insights. We introduce a compositional deep probabilistic model of DEL data, DEL-Compose, which decomposes molecular representations into their mono-synthon, di-synthon, and tri-synthon building blocks and capitalizes on the inherent hierarchical structure of these molecules by modeling latent reactions between embedded synthons. Additionally, we investigate methods to improve the observation models for DEL count data such as integrating covariate factors to more effectively account for data noise. Across two popular public benchmark datasets (CA-IX and HRP), our model demonstrates strong performance compared to count baselines, enriches the correct pharmacophores, and offers valuable insights via its intrinsic interpretable structure, thereby providing a robust tool for the analysis of DEL data.
Provable Benefits of Multi-task RL under Non-Markovian Decision Making Processes
Huang, Ruiquan, Cheng, Yuan, Yang, Jing, Tan, Vincent, Liang, Yingbin
In multi-task reinforcement learning (RL) under Markov decision processes (MDPs), the presence of shared latent structures among multiple MDPs has been shown to yield significant benefits to the sample efficiency compared to single-task RL. In this paper, we investigate whether such a benefit can extend to more general sequential decision making problems, such as partially observable MDPs (POMDPs) and more general predictive state representations (PSRs). The main challenge here is that the large and complex model space makes it hard to identify what types of common latent structure of multi-task PSRs can reduce the model complexity and improve sample efficiency. To this end, we posit a joint model class for tasks and use the notion of $\eta$-bracketing number to quantify its complexity; this number also serves as a general metric to capture the similarity of tasks and thus determines the benefit of multi-task over single-task RL. We first study upstream multi-task learning over PSRs, in which all tasks share the same observation and action spaces. We propose a provably efficient algorithm UMT-PSR for finding near-optimal policies for all PSRs, and demonstrate that the advantage of multi-task learning manifests if the joint model class of PSRs has a smaller $\eta$-bracketing number compared to that of individual single-task learning. We also provide several example multi-task PSRs with small $\eta$-bracketing numbers, which reap the benefits of multi-task learning. We further investigate downstream learning, in which the agent needs to learn a new target task that shares some commonalities with the upstream tasks via a similarity constraint. By exploiting the learned PSRs from the upstream, we develop a sample-efficient algorithm that provably finds a near-optimal policy.
Calibrating Neural Simulation-Based Inference with Differentiable Coverage Probability
Falkiewicz, Maciej, Takeishi, Naoya, Shekhzadeh, Imahn, Wehenkel, Antoine, Delaunoy, Arnaud, Louppe, Gilles, Kalousis, Alexandros
Bayesian inference allows expressing the uncertainty of posterior belief under a probabilistic model given prior information and the likelihood of the evidence. Predominantly, the likelihood function is only implicitly established by a simulator posing the need for simulation-based inference (SBI). However, the existing algorithms can yield overconfident posteriors (Hermans *et al.*, 2022) defeating the whole purpose of credibility if the uncertainty quantification is inaccurate. We propose to include a calibration term directly into the training objective of the neural model in selected amortized SBI techniques. By introducing a relaxation of the classical formulation of calibration error we enable end-to-end backpropagation. The proposed method is not tied to any particular neural model and brings moderate computational overhead compared to the profits it introduces. It is directly applicable to existing computational pipelines allowing reliable black-box posterior inference. We empirically show on six benchmark problems that the proposed method achieves competitive or better results in terms of coverage and expected posterior density than the previously existing approaches.
Predicting Battery Lifetime Under Varying Usage Conditions from Early Aging Data
Li, Tingkai, Zhou, Zihao, Thelen, Adam, Howey, David, Hu, Chao
Accurate battery lifetime prediction is important for preventative maintenance, warranties, and improved cell design and manufacturing. However, manufacturing variability and usage-dependent degradation make life prediction challenging. Here, we investigate new features derived from capacity-voltage data in early life to predict the lifetime of cells cycled under widely varying charge rates, discharge rates, and depths of discharge. Features were extracted from regularly scheduled reference performance tests (i.e., low rate full cycles) during cycling. The early-life features capture a cell's state of health and the rate of change of component-level degradation modes, some of which correlate strongly with cell lifetime. Using a newly generated dataset from 225 nickel-manganese-cobalt/graphite Li-ion cells aged under a wide range of conditions, we demonstrate a lifetime prediction of in-distribution cells with 15.1% mean absolute percentage error using no more than the first 15% of data, for most cells. Further testing using a hierarchical Bayesian regression model shows improved performance on extrapolation, achieving 21.8% mean absolute percentage error for out-of-distribution cells. Our approach highlights the importance of using domain knowledge of lithium-ion battery degradation modes to inform feature engineering. Further, we provide the community with a new publicly available battery aging dataset with cells cycled beyond 80% of their rated capacity.
Bayesian tomography using polynomial chaos expansion and deep generative networks
Meles, Giovanni Angelo, Amaya, Macarena, Levy, Shiran, Marelli, Stefano, Linde, Niklas
Implementations of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods need to confront two fundamental challenges: accurate representation of prior information and efficient evaluation of likelihoods. Principal component analysis (PCA) and related techniques can in some cases facilitate the definition and sampling of the prior distribution, as well as the training of accurate surrogate models, using for instance, polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). However, complex geological priors with sharp contrasts necessitate more complex dimensionality-reduction techniques, such as, deep generative models (DGMs). By sampling a low-dimensional prior probability distribution defined in the low-dimensional latent space of such a model, it becomes possible to efficiently sample the physical domain at the price of a generator that is typically highly non-linear. Training a surrogate that is capable of capturing intricate non-linear relationships between latent parameters and outputs of forward modeling presents a notable challenge. Indeed, while PCE models provide high accuracy when the input-output relationship can be effectively approximated by relatively low-degree multivariate polynomials, this condition is typically not met when employing latent variables derived from DGMs. In this contribution, we present a strategy combining the excellent reconstruction performances of a variational autoencoder (VAE) with the accuracy of PCA-PCE surrogate modeling in the context of Bayesian ground penetrating radar (GPR) traveltime tomography. Within the MCMC process, the parametrization of the VAE is leveraged for prior exploration and sample proposals. Concurrently, surrogate modeling is conducted using PCE, which operates on either globally or locally defined principal components of the VAE samples under examination.
SE(3)-Stochastic Flow Matching for Protein Backbone Generation
Bose, Avishek Joey, Akhound-Sadegh, Tara, Fatras, Kilian, Huguet, Guillaume, Rector-Brooks, Jarrid, Liu, Cheng-Hao, Nica, Andrei Cristian, Korablyov, Maksym, Bronstein, Michael, Tong, Alexander
The computational design of novel protein structures has the potential to impact numerous scientific disciplines greatly. Toward this goal, we introduce $\text{FoldFlow}$ a series of novel generative models of increasing modeling power based on the flow-matching paradigm over $3\text{D}$ rigid motions -- i.e. the group $\text{SE(3)}$ -- enabling accurate modeling of protein backbones. We first introduce $\text{FoldFlow-Base}$, a simulation-free approach to learning deterministic continuous-time dynamics and matching invariant target distributions on $\text{SE(3)}$. We next accelerate training by incorporating Riemannian optimal transport to create $\text{FoldFlow-OT}$, leading to the construction of both more simple and stable flows. Finally, we design $\text{FoldFlow-SFM}$ coupling both Riemannian OT and simulation-free training to learn stochastic continuous-time dynamics over $\text{SE(3)}$. Our family of $\text{FoldFlow}$ generative models offer several key advantages over previous approaches to the generative modeling of proteins: they are more stable and faster to train than diffusion-based approaches, and our models enjoy the ability to map any invariant source distribution to any invariant target distribution over $\text{SE(3)}$. Empirically, we validate our FoldFlow models on protein backbone generation of up to $300$ amino acids leading to high-quality designable, diverse, and novel samples.