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 Uncertainty


Content-Based Search for Deep Generative Models

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The growing proliferation of customized and pretrained generative models has made it infeasible for a user to be fully cognizant of every model in existence. To address this need, we introduce the task of content-based model search: given a query and a large set of generative models, finding the models that best match the query. As each generative model produces a distribution of images, we formulate the search task as an optimization problem to select the model with the highest probability of generating similar content as the query. We introduce a formulation to approximate this probability given the query from different modalities, e.g., image, sketch, and text. Furthermore, we propose a contrastive learning framework for model retrieval, which learns to adapt features for various query modalities. We demonstrate that our method outperforms several baselines on Generative Model Zoo, a new benchmark we create for the model retrieval task.


Bayesian imaging inverse problem with SA-Roundtrip prior via HMC-pCN sampler

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian inference with deep generative prior has received considerable interest for solving imaging inverse problems in many scientific and engineering fields. The selection of the prior distribution is learned from, and therefore an important representation learning of, available prior measurements. The SA-Roundtrip, a novel deep generative prior, is introduced to enable controlled sampling generation and identify the data's intrinsic dimension. This prior incorporates a self-attention structure within a bidirectional generative adversarial network. Subsequently, Bayesian inference is applied to the posterior distribution in the low-dimensional latent space using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo with preconditioned Crank-Nicolson (HMC-pCN) algorithm, which is proven to be ergodic under specific conditions. Experiments conducted on computed tomography (CT) reconstruction with the MNIST and TomoPhantom datasets reveal that the proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art comparisons, consistently yielding a robust and superior point estimator along with precise uncertainty quantification.


Discriminator Guidance for Autoregressive Diffusion Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We introduce discriminator guidance in the setting of Autoregressive Diffusion Models. The use of a discriminator to guide a diffusion process has previously been used for continuous diffusion models, and in this work we derive ways of using a discriminator together with a pretrained generative model in the discrete case. First, we show that using an optimal discriminator will correct the pretrained model and enable exact sampling from the underlying data distribution. Second, to account for the realistic scenario of using a sub-optimal discriminator, we derive a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm which iteratively takes the predictions from the discrimiator into account during the generation process. We test these approaches on the task of generating molecular graphs and show how the discriminator improves the generative performance over using only the pretrained model.


Amortised Inference in Neural Networks for Small-Scale Probabilistic Meta-Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

In many machine learning applications, well-calibrated posterior predictive distributions are required for a number of closely-related datasets. Given similarity between datasets, it is natural to wish to develop meta-learning algorithms that utilise other datasets to reduce the computational complexity and / or improve predictive performance when deploying models on newly-seen datasets at test time. There have been a number of significant recent developments in meta-learning for predictive distributions, most notably that of the neural process (NP) family (Garnelo et al., 2018a,b; Foong et al., 2020; Gordon et al., 2018, 2019). Despite the utility of these methods on large-scale meta-datasets, they perform poorly in settings where the number of datasets and the total number of datapoints is small. We argue that this is a result of the large number of shared model parameters overfitting to the meta-dataset.


Causal Representation Learning Made Identifiable by Grouping of Observational Variables

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A topic of great current interest is Causal Representation Learning (CRL), whose goal is to learn a causal model for hidden features in a data-driven manner. Unfortunately, CRL is severely ill-posed since it is a combination of the two notoriously ill-posed problems of representation learning and causal discovery. Yet, finding practical identifiability conditions that guarantee a unique solution is crucial for its practical applicability. Most approaches so far have been based on assumptions on the latent causal mechanisms, such as temporal causality, or existence of supervision or interventions; these can be too restrictive in actual applications. Here, we show identifiability based on novel, weak constraints, which requires no temporal structure, intervention, nor weak supervision. The approach is based assuming the observational mixing exhibits a suitable grouping of the observational variables. We also propose a novel self-supervised estimation framework consistent with the model, prove its statistical consistency, and experimentally show its superior CRL performances compared to the state-of-the-art baselines. We further demonstrate its robustness against latent confounders and causal cycles.


Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Quantifying uncertainty is important for actionable predictions in real-world applications. A crucial part of predictive uncertainty quantification is the estimation of epistemic uncertainty, which is defined as an integral of the product between a divergence function and the posterior. Current methods such as Deep Ensembles or MC dropout underperform at estimating the epistemic uncertainty, since they primarily consider the posterior when sampling models. We suggest Quantification of Uncertainty with Adversarial Models (QUAM) to better estimate the epistemic uncertainty. QUAM identifies regions where the whole product under the integral is large, not just the posterior. Consequently, QUAM has lower approximation error of the epistemic uncertainty compared to previous methods. Models for which the product is large correspond to adversarial models (not adversarial examples!). Adversarial models have both a high posterior as well as a high divergence between their predictions and that of a reference model. Our experiments show that QUAM excels in capturing epistemic uncertainty for deep learning models and outperforms previous methods on challenging tasks in the vision domain.


Large-scale Bayesian Structure Learning for Gaussian Graphical Models using Marginal Pseudo-likelihood

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Bayesian methods for learning Gaussian graphical models offer a robust framework that addresses model uncertainty and incorporates prior knowledge. Despite their theoretical strengths, the applicability of Bayesian methods is often constrained by computational needs, especially in modern contexts involving thousands of variables. To overcome this issue, we introduce two novel Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithms that have a significantly lower computational cost than leading Bayesian approaches. Our proposed MCMC-based search algorithms use the marginal pseudo-likelihood approach to bypass the complexities of computing intractable normalizing constants and iterative precision matrix sampling. These algorithms can deliver reliable results in mere minutes on standard computers, even for large-scale problems with one thousand variables. Furthermore, our proposed method is capable of addressing model uncertainty by efficiently exploring the full posterior graph space. Our simulation study indicates that the proposed algorithms, particularly for large-scale sparse graphs, outperform the leading Bayesian approaches in terms of computational efficiency and precision. The implementation supporting the new approach is available through the R package BDgraph.


Differentially Private Conditional Independence Testing

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conditional independence (CI) tests are widely used in statistical data analysis, e.g., they are the building block of many algorithms for causal graph discovery. The goal of a CI test is to accept or reject the null hypothesis that $X \perp \!\!\! \perp Y \mid Z$, where $X \in \mathbb{R}, Y \in \mathbb{R}, Z \in \mathbb{R}^d$. In this work, we investigate conditional independence testing under the constraint of differential privacy. We design two private CI testing procedures: one based on the generalized covariance measure of Shah and Peters (2020) and another based on the conditional randomization test of Cand\`es et al. (2016) (under the model-X assumption). We provide theoretical guarantees on the performance of our tests and validate them empirically. These are the first private CI tests with rigorous theoretical guarantees that work for the general case when $Z$ is continuous.


Amortized Variational Inference: A Systematic Review

arXiv.org Machine Learning

The core principle of Variational Inference (VI) is to convert the statistical inference problem of computing complex posterior probability densities into a tractable optimization problem. This property enables VI to be faster than several sampling-based techniques. However, the traditional VI algorithm is not scalable to large data sets and is unable to readily infer out-of-bounds data points without re-running the optimization process. Recent developments in the field, like stochastic-, black box-, and amortized-VI, have helped address these issues. Generative modeling tasks nowadays widely make use of amortized VI for its efficiency and scalability, as it utilizes a parameterized function to learn the approximate posterior density parameters. In this paper, we review the mathematical foundations of various VI techniques to form the basis for understanding amortized VI. Additionally, we provide an overview of the recent trends that address several issues of amortized VI, such as the amortization gap, generalization issues, inconsistent representation learning, and posterior collapse. Finally, we analyze alternate divergence measures that improve VI optimization.


Applications of ML-Based Surrogates in Bayesian Approaches to Inverse Problems

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Neural networks have become a powerful tool as surrogate models to provide numerical solutions for scientific problems with increased computational efficiency. This efficiency can be advantageous for numerically challenging problems where time to solution is important or when evaluation of many similar analysis scenarios is required. One particular area of scientific interest is the setting of inverse problems, where one knows the forward dynamics of a system are described by a partial differential equation and the task is to infer properties of the system given (potentially noisy) observations of these dynamics. We consider the inverse problem of inferring the location of a wave source on a square domain, given a noisy solution to the 2-D acoustic wave equation. Under the assumption of Gaussian noise, a likelihood function for source location can be formulated, which requires one forward simulation of the system per evaluation. Using a standard neural network as a surrogate model makes it computationally feasible to evaluate this likelihood several times, and so Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods can be used to evaluate the posterior distribution of the source location. We demonstrate that this method can accurately infer source-locations from noisy data.