During the last decades, a myriad of fuzzy time series models have been proposed in scientific literature. Among the most accurate models found in fuzzy time series, the high-order ones are the most accurate. The research described in this paper tackles three potential limitations associated with the application of high-order fuzzy time series models. To begin with, the adequacy of forecast rules lacks consistency. Secondly, as the model's order increases, data utilization diminishes. Thirdly, the uniformity of forecast rules proves to be highly contingent on the chosen interval partitions. To address these likely drawbacks, we introduce a novel model based on fuzzy time series that amalgamates the principles of particle swarm optimization (PSO) and weighted summation. Our results show that our approach models accurately the time series in comparison with previous methods.

This paper focuses on the data-insufficiency problem in multi-task learning within an episodic training setup. Specifically, we explore the potential of heterogeneous information across tasks and meta-knowledge among episodes to effectively tackle each task with limited data. Existing meta-learning methods often fail to take advantage of crucial heterogeneous information in a single episode, while multi-task learning models neglect reusing experience from earlier episodes. To address the problem of insufficient data, we develop Heterogeneous Neural Processes (HNPs) for the episodic multi-task setup. Within the framework of hierarchical Bayes, HNPs effectively capitalize on prior experiences as meta-knowledge and capture task-relatedness among heterogeneous tasks, mitigating data-insufficiency. Meanwhile, transformer-structured inference modules are designed to enable efficient inferences toward meta-knowledge and task-relatedness. In this way, HNPs can learn more powerful functional priors for adapting to novel heterogeneous tasks in each meta-test episode. Experimental results show the superior performance of the proposed HNPs over typical baselines, and ablation studies verify the effectiveness of the designed inference modules.

Recently developed deep neural models like NetGAN, CELL, and Variational Graph Autoencoders have made progress but face limitations in replicating key graph statistics on generating large graphs. Diffusion-based methods have emerged as promising alternatives, however, most of them present challenges in computational efficiency and generative performance. EDGE is effective at modeling large networks, but its current denoising approach can be inefficient, often leading to wasted computational resources and potential mismatches in its generation process. In this paper, we propose enhancements to the EDGE model to address these issues. Specifically, we introduce a degree-specific noise schedule that optimizes the number of active nodes at each timestep, significantly reducing memory consumption. Additionally, we present an improved sampling scheme that fine-tunes the generative process, allowing for better control over the similarity between the synthesized and the true network. Our experimental results demonstrate that the proposed modifications not only improve the efficiency but also enhance the accuracy of the generated graphs, offering a robust and scalable solution for graph generation tasks.

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are vulnerable to adversarial attacks. It is found empirically that adversarially robust generalization is crucial in establishing defense algorithms against adversarial attacks. Therefore, it is interesting to study the theoretical guarantee of robust generalization. This paper focuses on norm-based complexity, based on a PAC-Bayes approach (Neyshabur et al., 2017). The main challenge lies in extending the key ingredient, which is a weight perturbation bound in standard settings, to the robust settings. Existing attempts heavily rely on additional strong assumptions, leading to loose bounds. In this paper, we address this issue and provide a spectrally-normalized robust generalization bound for DNNs. Compared to existing bounds, our bound offers two significant advantages: Firstly, it does not depend on additional assumptions. Secondly, it is considerably tighter, aligning with the bounds of standard generalization. Therefore, our result provides a different perspective on understanding robust generalization: The mismatch terms between standard and robust generalization bounds shown in previous studies do not contribute to the poor robust generalization. Instead, these disparities solely due to mathematical issues. Finally, we extend the main result to adversarial robustness against general non-$\ell_p$ attacks and other neural network architectures.

Image captioning aims to describe visual content in natural language. As 'a picture is worth a thousand words', there could be various correct descriptions for an image. However, with maximum likelihood estimation as the training objective, the captioning model is penalized whenever its prediction mismatches with the label. For instance, when the model predicts a word expressing richer semantics than the label, it will be penalized and optimized to prefer more concise expressions, referred to as conciseness optimization. In contrast, predictions that are more concise than labels lead to richness optimization. Such conflicting optimization directions could eventually result in the model generating general descriptions. In this work, we introduce Semipermeable MaxImum Likelihood Estimation (SMILE), which allows richness optimization while blocking conciseness optimization, thus encouraging the model to generate longer captions with more details. Extensive experiments on two mainstream image captioning datasets MSCOCO and Flickr30K demonstrate that SMILE significantly enhances the descriptiveness of generated captions. We further provide in-depth investigations to facilitate a better understanding of how SMILE works.

Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs which is slow to converge for many benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for marginal inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm. Our algorithm converts the PGM into a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF) with bounded clique sizes, and then uses a heuristic belief update algorithm to infer the marginals. For the special case of Bayesian networks, we show that if the incremental build step in IBIA uses the topological order of variables then (a) the prior marginals are consistent in all CTFs in the SLCTF and (b) the posterior marginals are consistent once all evidence variables are added to the SLCTF. In our approach, the belief propagation step is non-iterative and the accuracy-complexity trade-off is controlled using user-defined clique size bounds. Results for several benchmark sets from recent UAI competitions show that our method gives either better or comparable accuracy than existing variational and sampling based methods, with smaller runtimes.

Open ad hoc teamwork is the problem of training a single agent to efficiently collaborate with an unknown group of teammates whose composition may change over time. A variable team composition creates challenges for the agent, such as the requirement to adapt to new team dynamics and dealing with changing state vector sizes. These challenges are aggravated in real-world applications in which the controlled agent only has a partial view of the environment. In this work, we develop a class of solutions for open ad hoc teamwork under full and partial observability. We start by developing a solution for the fully observable case that leverages graph neural network architectures to obtain an optimal policy based on reinforcement learning. We then extend this solution to partially observable scenarios by proposing different methodologies that maintain belief estimates over the latent environment states and team composition. These belief estimates are combined with our solution for the fully observable case to compute an agent's optimal policy under partial observability in open ad hoc teamwork. Empirical results demonstrate that our solution can learn efficient policies in open ad hoc teamwork in fully and partially observable cases. Further analysis demonstrates that our methods' success is a result of effectively learning the effects of teammates' actions while also inferring the inherent state of the environment under partial observability.

Understanding human behavior from observed data is critical for transparency and accountability in decision-making. Consider real-world settings such as healthcare, in which modeling a decision-maker's policy is challenging -- with no access to underlying states, no knowledge of environment dynamics, and no allowance for live experimentation. We desire learning a data-driven representation of decision-making behavior that (1) inheres transparency by design, (2) accommodates partial observability, and (3) operates completely offline. To satisfy these key criteria, we propose a novel model-based Bayesian method for interpretable policy learning ("Interpole") that jointly estimates an agent's (possibly biased) belief-update process together with their (possibly suboptimal) belief-action mapping. Through experiments on both simulated and real-world data for the problem of Alzheimer's disease diagnosis, we illustrate the potential of our approach as an investigative device for auditing, quantifying, and understanding human decision-making behavior.

Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive, unifying perspective on inverse decision modeling: a framework for learning parameterized representations of sequential decision behavior. First, we formalize the forward problem (as a normative standard), subsuming common classes of control behavior. Second, we use this to formalize the inverse problem (as a descriptive model), generalizing existing work on imitation/reward learning -- while opening up a much broader class of research problems in behavior representation. Finally, we instantiate this approach with an example (inverse bounded rational control), illustrating how this structure enables learning (interpretable) representations of (bounded) rationality -- while naturally capturing intuitive notions of suboptimal actions, biased beliefs, and imperfect knowledge of environments.

For a real-world decision-making problem, the reward function often needs to be engineered or learned. A popular approach is to utilize human feedback to learn a reward function for training. The most straightforward way to do so is to ask humans to provide ratings for state-action pairs on an absolute scale and take these ratings as reward samples directly. Another popular way is to ask humans to rank a small set of state-action pairs by preference and learn a reward function from these preference data. Recently, preference-based methods have demonstrated substantial success in empirical applications such as InstructGPT. In this work, we develop a theoretical comparison between these human feedback approaches in offline contextual bandits and show how human bias and uncertainty in feedback modelings can affect the theoretical guarantees of these approaches. Through this, our results seek to provide a theoretical explanation for the empirical successes of preference-based methods from a modeling perspective.