Exact inference of marginals in probabilistic graphical models (PGM) is known to be intractable, necessitating the use of approximate methods. Most of the existing variational techniques perform iterative message passing in loopy graphs which is slow to converge for many benchmarks. In this paper, we propose a new algorithm for marginal inference that is based on the incremental build-infer-approximate (IBIA) paradigm. Our algorithm converts the PGM into a sequence of linked clique tree forests (SLCTF) with bounded clique sizes, and then uses a heuristic belief update algorithm to infer the marginals. For the special case of Bayesian networks, we show that if the incremental build step in IBIA uses the topological order of variables then (a) the prior marginals are consistent in all CTFs in the SLCTF and (b) the posterior marginals are consistent once all evidence variables are added to the SLCTF. In our approach, the belief propagation step is non-iterative and the accuracy-complexity trade-off is controlled using user-defined clique size bounds. Results for several benchmark sets from recent UAI competitions show that our method gives either better or comparable accuracy than existing variational and sampling based methods, with smaller runtimes.

Open ad hoc teamwork is the problem of training a single agent to efficiently collaborate with an unknown group of teammates whose composition may change over time. A variable team composition creates challenges for the agent, such as the requirement to adapt to new team dynamics and dealing with changing state vector sizes. These challenges are aggravated in real-world applications in which the controlled agent only has a partial view of the environment. In this work, we develop a class of solutions for open ad hoc teamwork under full and partial observability. We start by developing a solution for the fully observable case that leverages graph neural network architectures to obtain an optimal policy based on reinforcement learning. We then extend this solution to partially observable scenarios by proposing different methodologies that maintain belief estimates over the latent environment states and team composition. These belief estimates are combined with our solution for the fully observable case to compute an agent's optimal policy under partial observability in open ad hoc teamwork. Empirical results demonstrate that our solution can learn efficient policies in open ad hoc teamwork in fully and partially observable cases. Further analysis demonstrates that our methods' success is a result of effectively learning the effects of teammates' actions while also inferring the inherent state of the environment under partial observability.

Understanding human behavior from observed data is critical for transparency and accountability in decision-making. Consider real-world settings such as healthcare, in which modeling a decision-maker's policy is challenging -- with no access to underlying states, no knowledge of environment dynamics, and no allowance for live experimentation. We desire learning a data-driven representation of decision-making behavior that (1) inheres transparency by design, (2) accommodates partial observability, and (3) operates completely offline. To satisfy these key criteria, we propose a novel model-based Bayesian method for interpretable policy learning ("Interpole") that jointly estimates an agent's (possibly biased) belief-update process together with their (possibly suboptimal) belief-action mapping. Through experiments on both simulated and real-world data for the problem of Alzheimer's disease diagnosis, we illustrate the potential of our approach as an investigative device for auditing, quantifying, and understanding human decision-making behavior.

Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive, unifying perspective on inverse decision modeling: a framework for learning parameterized representations of sequential decision behavior. First, we formalize the forward problem (as a normative standard), subsuming common classes of control behavior. Second, we use this to formalize the inverse problem (as a descriptive model), generalizing existing work on imitation/reward learning -- while opening up a much broader class of research problems in behavior representation. Finally, we instantiate this approach with an example (inverse bounded rational control), illustrating how this structure enables learning (interpretable) representations of (bounded) rationality -- while naturally capturing intuitive notions of suboptimal actions, biased beliefs, and imperfect knowledge of environments.

For a real-world decision-making problem, the reward function often needs to be engineered or learned. A popular approach is to utilize human feedback to learn a reward function for training. The most straightforward way to do so is to ask humans to provide ratings for state-action pairs on an absolute scale and take these ratings as reward samples directly. Another popular way is to ask humans to rank a small set of state-action pairs by preference and learn a reward function from these preference data. Recently, preference-based methods have demonstrated substantial success in empirical applications such as InstructGPT. In this work, we develop a theoretical comparison between these human feedback approaches in offline contextual bandits and show how human bias and uncertainty in feedback modelings can affect the theoretical guarantees of these approaches. Through this, our results seek to provide a theoretical explanation for the empirical successes of preference-based methods from a modeling perspective.

In this paper, we investigate the impact of numerical instability on the reliability of sampling, density evaluation, and evidence lower bound (ELBO) estimation in variational flows. We first empirically demonstrate that common flows can exhibit a catastrophic accumulation of error: the numerical flow map deviates significantly from the exact map -- which affects sampling -- and the numerical inverse flow map does not accurately recover the initial input -- which affects density and ELBO computations. Surprisingly though, we find that results produced by flows are often accurate enough for applications despite the presence of serious numerical instability. In this work, we treat variational flows as dynamical systems, and leverage shadowing theory to elucidate this behavior via theoretical guarantees on the error of sampling, density evaluation, and ELBO estimation. Finally, we develop and empirically test a diagnostic procedure that can be used to validate results produced by numerically unstable flows in practice.

Independent Component Analysis (ICA) aims to recover independent latent variables from observed mixtures thereof. Causal Representation Learning (CRL) aims instead to infer causally related (thus often statistically dependent) latent variables, together with the unknown graph encoding their causal relationships. We introduce an intermediate problem termed Causal Component Analysis (CauCA). CauCA can be viewed as a generalization of ICA, modelling the causal dependence among the latent components, and as a special case of CRL. In contrast to CRL, it presupposes knowledge of the causal graph, focusing solely on learning the unmixing function and the causal mechanisms. Any impossibility results regarding the recovery of the ground truth in CauCA also apply for CRL, while possibility results may serve as a stepping stone for extensions to CRL. We characterize CauCA identifiability from multiple datasets generated through different types of interventions on the latent causal variables. As a corollary, this interventional perspective also leads to new identifiability results for nonlinear ICA -- a special case of CauCA with an empty graph -- requiring strictly fewer datasets than previous results. We introduce a likelihood-based approach using normalizing flows to estimate both the unmixing function and the causal mechanisms, and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive synthetic experiments in the CauCA and ICA setting.

In this paper, we establish a connection between the parameterization of flow-based and energy-based generative models, and present a new flow-based modeling approach called energy-based normalizing flow (EBFlow). We demonstrate that by optimizing EBFlow with score-matching objectives, the computation of Jacobian determinants for linear transformations can be entirely bypassed. This feature enables the use of arbitrary linear layers in the construction of flow-based models without increasing the computational time complexity of each training iteration from $O(D^2L)$ to $O(D^3L)$ for an $L$-layered model that accepts $D$-dimensional inputs. This makes the training of EBFlow more efficient than the commonly-adopted maximum likelihood training method. In addition to the reduction in runtime, we enhance the training stability and empirical performance of EBFlow through a number of techniques developed based on our analysis of the score-matching methods. The experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves a significant speedup compared to maximum likelihood estimation while outperforming prior methods with a noticeable margin in terms of negative log-likelihood (NLL).

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) provide the foundation for the recent breakthroughs in generative modeling. Their Markovian structure makes it difficult to define DDPMs with distributions other than Gaussian or discrete. In this paper, we introduce Star-Shaped DDPM (SS-DDPM). Its star-shaped diffusion process allows us to bypass the need to define the transition probabilities or compute posteriors. We establish duality between star-shaped and specific Markovian diffusions for the exponential family of distributions and derive efficient algorithms for training and sampling from SS-DDPMs. In the case of Gaussian distributions, SS-DDPM is equivalent to DDPM. However, SS-DDPMs provide a simple recipe for designing diffusion models with distributions such as Beta, von Mises$\unicode{x2013}$Fisher, Dirichlet, Wishart and others, which can be especially useful when data lies on a constrained manifold. We evaluate the model in different settings and find it competitive even on image data, where Beta SS-DDPM achieves results comparable to a Gaussian DDPM. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/andrey-okhotin/star-shaped .

Constraint-based causal discovery algorithms learn part of the causal graph structure by systematically testing conditional independences observed in the data. These algorithms, such as the PC algorithm and its variants, rely on graphical characterizations of the so-called equivalence class of causal graphs proposed by Pearl. However, constraint-based causal discovery algorithms struggle when data is limited since conditional independence tests quickly lose their statistical power, especially when the conditioning set is large. To address this, we propose using conditional independence tests where the size of the conditioning set is upper bounded by some integer $k$ for robust causal discovery. The existing graphical characterizations of the equivalence classes of causal graphs are not applicable when we cannot leverage all the conditional independence statements. We first define the notion of $k$-Markov equivalence: Two causal graphs are $k$-Markov equivalent if they entail the same conditional independence constraints where the conditioning set size is upper bounded by $k$. We propose a novel representation that allows us to graphically characterize $k$-Markov equivalence between two causal graphs. We propose a sound constraint-based algorithm called the $k$-PC algorithm for learning this equivalence class. Finally, we conduct synthetic, and semi-synthetic experiments to demonstrate that the $k$-PC algorithm enables more robust causal discovery in the small sample regime compared to the baseline algorithms.