Sequential latent variable models (SLVMs) are essential tools in statistics and machine learning, with applications ranging from healthcare to neuroscience. As their flexibility increases, analytic inference and model learning can become challenging, necessitating approximate methods. Here we introduce neural adaptive smoothing via twisting (NAS-X), a method that extends reweighted wake-sleep (RWS) to the sequential setting by using smoothing sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) to estimate intractable posterior expectations. Combining RWS and smoothing SMC allows NAS-X to provide low-bias and low-variance gradient estimates, and fit both discrete and continuous latent variable models. We illustrate the theoretical advantages of NAS-X over previous methods and explore these advantages empirically in a variety of tasks, including a challenging application to mechanistic models of neuronal dynamics. These experiments show that NAS-X substantially outperforms previous VI- and RWS-based methods in inference and model learning, achieving lower parameter error and tighter likelihood bounds.

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets), a class of generative models over discrete and structured sample spaces, have been previously applied to the problem of inferring the marginal posterior distribution over the directed acyclic graph (DAG) of a Bayesian Network, given a dataset of observations. Based on recent advances extending this framework to non-discrete sample spaces, we propose in this paper to approximate the joint posterior over not only the structure of a Bayesian Network, but also the parameters of its conditional probability distributions. We use a single GFlowNet whose sampling policy follows a two-phase process: the DAG is first generated sequentially one edge at a time, and then the corresponding parameters are picked once the full structure is known. Since the parameters are included in the posterior distribution, this leaves more flexibility for the local probability models of the Bayesian Network, making our approach applicable even to non-linear models parametrized by neural networks. We show that our method, called JSP-GFN, offers an accurate approximation of the joint posterior, while comparing favorably against existing methods on both simulated and real data.

We propose a new class of generative models that naturally handle data of varying dimensionality by jointly modeling the state and dimension of each datapoint. The generative process is formulated as a jump diffusion process that makes jumps between different dimensional spaces. We first define a dimension destroying forward noising process, before deriving the dimension creating time-reversed generative process along with a novel evidence lower bound training objective for learning to approximate it. Simulating our learned approximation to the time-reversed generative process then provides an effective way of sampling data of varying dimensionality by jointly generating state values and dimensions. We demonstrate our approach on molecular and video datasets of varying dimensionality, reporting better compatibility with test-time diffusion guidance imputation tasks and improved interpolation capabilities versus fixed dimensional models that generate state values and dimensions separately.

Inverse optimal control can be used to characterize behavior in sequential decision-making tasks. Most existing work, however, is limited to fully observable or linear systems, or requires the action signals to be known. Here, we introduce a probabilistic approach to inverse optimal control for partially observable stochastic non-linear systems with unobserved action signals, which unifies previous approaches to inverse optimal control with maximum causal entropy formulations. Using an explicit model of the noise characteristics of the sensory and motor systems of the agent in conjunction with local linearization techniques, we derive an approximate likelihood function for the model parameters, which can be computed within a single forward pass. We present quantitative evaluations on stochastic and partially observable versions of two classic control tasks and two human behavioral tasks. Importantly, we show that our method can disentangle perceptual factors and behavioral costs despite the fact that epistemic and pragmatic actions are intertwined in sequential decision-making under uncertainty, such as in active sensing and active learning. The proposed method has broad applicability, ranging from imitation learning to sensorimotor neuroscience.

We study the problems of estimating the past and future evolutions of two diffusion processes that spread concurrently on a network. Specifically, given a known network $G=(V, \overrightarrow{E})$ and a (possibly noisy) snapshot $\mathcal{O}_n$ of its state taken at (a possibly unknown) time $W$, we wish to determine the posterior distributions of the initial state of the network and the infection times of its nodes. These distributions are useful in finding source nodes of epidemics and rumors -- $\textit{backward inference}$ -- , and estimating the spread of a fixed set of source nodes -- $\textit{forward inference}$. To model the interaction between the two processes, we study an extension of the independent-cascade (IC) model where, when a node gets infected with either process, its susceptibility to the other one changes. First, we derive the exact joint probability of the initial state of the network and the observation-snapshot $\mathcal{O}_n$. Then, using the machinery of factor-graphs, factor-graph transformations, and the generalized distributive-law, we derive a Belief-Propagation (BP) based algorithm that is scalable to large networks and can converge on graphs of arbitrary topology (at a likely expense in approximation accuracy).

Understanding the complex mechanisms of the brain can be unraveled by extracting the Dynamic Effective Connectome (DEC). Recently, score-based Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) discovery methods have shown significant improvements in extracting the causal structure and inferring effective connectivity. However, learning DEC through these methods still faces two main challenges: one with the fundamental impotence of high-dimensional dynamic DAG discovery methods and the other with the low quality of fMRI data. In this paper, we introduce Bayesian Dynamic DAG learning with M-matrices Acyclicity characterization \textbf{(BDyMA)} method to address the challenges in discovering DEC. The presented dynamic causal model enables us to discover bidirected edges as well. Leveraging an unconstrained framework in the BDyMA method leads to more accurate results in detecting high-dimensional networks, achieving sparser outcomes, making it particularly suitable for extracting DEC. Additionally, the score function of the BDyMA method allows the incorporation of prior knowledge into the process of dynamic causal discovery which further enhances the accuracy of results. Comprehensive simulations on synthetic data and experiments on Human Connectome Project (HCP) data demonstrate that our method can handle both of the two main challenges, yielding more accurate and reliable DEC compared to state-of-the-art and baseline methods. Additionally, we investigate the trustworthiness of DTI data as prior knowledge for DEC discovery and show the improvements in DEC discovery when the DTI data is incorporated into the process.

Real-world social events typically exhibit a severe class-imbalance distribution, which makes the trained detection model encounter a serious generalization challenge. Most studies solve this problem from the frequency perspective and emphasize the representation or classifier learning for tail classes. While in our observation, compared to the rarity of classes, the calibrated uncertainty estimated from well-trained evidential deep learning networks better reflects model performance. To this end, we propose a novel uncertainty-guided class imbalance learning framework - UCL$_{SED}$, and its variant - UCL-EC$_{SED}$, for imbalanced social event detection tasks. We aim to improve the overall model performance by enhancing model generalization to those uncertain classes. Considering performance degradation usually comes from misclassifying samples as their confusing neighboring classes, we focus on boundary learning in latent space and classifier learning with high-quality uncertainty estimation. First, we design a novel uncertainty-guided contrastive learning loss, namely UCL and its variant - UCL-EC, to manipulate distinguishable representation distribution for imbalanced data. During training, they force all classes, especially uncertain ones, to adaptively adjust a clear separable boundary in the feature space. Second, to obtain more robust and accurate class uncertainty, we combine the results of multi-view evidential classifiers via the Dempster-Shafer theory under the supervision of an additional calibration method. We conduct experiments on three severely imbalanced social event datasets including Events2012\_100, Events2018\_100, and CrisisLexT\_7. Our model significantly improves social event representation and classification tasks in almost all classes, especially those uncertain ones.

One attractive instance of measure transport for Bayesian Multi-agent systems are commonplace in today's technological inference is through the approximation of the Knothe-landscape, and many problems that were once cast in Rosenblatt (KR) rearrangement [13], [14]. This transformation a centralized setting, have been recast in a distributed manner can be easily approximated given only samples of [1]. With the introduction of multiple agents, various considerations a distribution and has been applied for various higherdimensional must be made due to information flow, changes and nonlinear filtering problems [15], [16].

One of the fundamental cognitive abilities of humans is to quickly resolve uncertainty by generating hypotheses and testing them via active trials. Encountering a novel phenomenon accompanied by ambiguous cause-effect relationships, humans make hypotheses against data, conduct inferences from observation, test their theory via experimentation, and correct the proposition if inconsistency arises. These iterative processes persist until the underlying mechanism becomes clear. In this work, we devise the IVRE (pronounced as "ivory") environment for evaluating artificial agents' reasoning ability under uncertainty. IVRE is an interactive environment featuring rich scenarios centered around Blicket detection. Agents in IVRE are placed into environments with various ambiguous action-effect pairs and asked to determine each object's role. They are encouraged to propose effective and efficient experiments to validate their hypotheses based on observations and actively gather new information. The game ends when all uncertainties are resolved or the maximum number of trials is consumed. By evaluating modern artificial agents in IVRE, we notice a clear failure of today's learning methods compared to humans. Such inefficacy in interactive reasoning ability under uncertainty calls for future research in building human-like intelligence.

A rare event is defined by a low probability of occurrence. Accurate estimation of such small probabilities is of utmost importance across diverse domains. Conventional Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, demanding an exorbitant number of samples to achieve reliable estimates. Inspired by the exact sampling capabilities of normalizing flows, we revisit this challenge and propose normalizing flow assisted importance sampling, termed NOFIS. NOFIS first learns a sequence of proposal distributions associated with predefined nested subset events by minimizing KL divergence losses. Next, it estimates the rare event probability by utilizing importance sampling in conjunction with the last proposal. The efficacy of our NOFIS method is substantiated through comprehensive qualitative visualizations, affirming the optimality of the learned proposal distribution, as well as a series of quantitative experiments encompassing $10$ distinct test cases, which highlight NOFIS's superiority over baseline approaches.