Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense that the same model will yield contradictory posteriors on independent data sets from the true distribution. To define a criterion for reproducible uncertainty quantification under misspecification, we consider the probability that two confidence sets constructed from independent data sets have nonempty overlap, and we establish a lower bound on this overlap probability that holds for any valid confidence sets. We prove that credible sets from the standard posterior can strongly violate this bound, particularly in high-dimensional settings (i.e., with dimension increasing with sample size), indicating that it is not internally coherent under misspecification. To improve reproducibility in an easy-to-use and widely applicable way, we propose to apply bagging to the Bayesian posterior ("BayesBag"'); that is, to use the average of posterior distributions conditioned on bootstrapped datasets. We motivate BayesBag from first principles based on Jeffrey conditionalization and show that the bagged posterior typically satisfies the overlap lower bound. Further, we prove a Bernstein--Von Mises theorem for the bagged posterior, establishing its asymptotic normal distribution. We demonstrate the benefits of BayesBag via simulation experiments and an application to crime rate prediction.

Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a sample-efficient optimization algorithm widely employed across various applications. In some challenging BO tasks, input uncertainty arises due to the inevitable randomness in the optimization process, such as machining errors, execution noise, or contextual variability. This uncertainty deviates the input from the intended value before evaluation, resulting in significant performance fluctuations in the final result. In this paper, we introduce a novel robust Bayesian Optimization algorithm, AIRBO, which can effectively identify a robust optimum that performs consistently well under arbitrary input uncertainty. Our method directly models the uncertain inputs of arbitrary distributions by empowering the Gaussian Process with the Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) and further accelerates the posterior inference via Nystrom approximation. Rigorous theoretical regret bound is established under MMD estimation error and extensive experiments on synthetic functions and real problems demonstrate that our approach can handle various input uncertainties and achieve state-of-the-art performance.

Recent studies in reinforcement learning (RL) have made significant progress by leveraging function approximation to alleviate the sample complexity hurdle for better performance. Despite the success, existing provably efficient algorithms typically rely on the accessibility of immediate feedback upon taking actions. The failure to account for the impact of delay in observations can significantly degrade the performance of real-world systems due to the regret blow-up. In this work, we tackle the challenge of delayed feedback in RL with linear function approximation by employing posterior sampling, which has been shown to empirically outperform the popular UCB algorithms in a wide range of regimes. We first introduce Delayed-PSVI, an optimistic value-based algorithm that effectively explores the value function space via noise perturbation with posterior sampling. We provide the first analysis for posterior sampling algorithms with delayed feedback in RL and show our algorithm achieves $\widetilde{O}(\sqrt{d^3H^3 T} + d^2H^2 E[\tau])$ worst-case regret in the presence of unknown stochastic delays. Here $E[\tau]$ is the expected delay. To further improve its computational efficiency and to expand its applicability in high-dimensional RL problems, we incorporate a gradient-based approximate sampling scheme via Langevin dynamics for Delayed-LPSVI, which maintains the same order-optimal regret guarantee with $\widetilde{O}(dHK)$ computational cost. Empirical evaluations are performed to demonstrate the statistical and computational efficacy of our algorithms.

Reinforcement learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) learns from preference signals, while standard Reinforcement Learning (RL) directly learns from reward signals. Preferences arguably contain less information than rewards, which makes preference-based RL seemingly more difficult. This paper theoretically proves that, for a wide range of preference models, we can solve preference-based RL directly using existing algorithms and techniques for reward-based RL, with small or no extra costs. Specifically, (1) for preferences that are drawn from reward-based probabilistic models, we reduce the problem to robust reward-based RL that can tolerate small errors in rewards; (2) for general arbitrary preferences where the objective is to find the von Neumann winner, we reduce the problem to multiagent reward-based RL which finds Nash equilibria for factored Markov games with a restricted set of policies. The latter case can be further reduced to adversarial MDP when preferences only depend on the final state. We instantiate all reward-based RL subroutines by concrete provable algorithms, and apply our theory to a large class of models including tabular MDPs and MDPs with generic function approximation. We further provide guarantees when K-wise comparisons are available.

We establish conditions under which latent causal graphs are nonparametrically identifiable and can be reconstructed from unknown interventions in the latent space. Our primary focus is the identification of the latent structure in measurement models without parametric assumptions such as linearity or Gaussianity. Moreover, we do not assume the number of hidden variables is known, and we show that at most one unknown intervention per hidden variable is needed. This extends a recent line of work on learning causal representations from observations and interventions. The proofs are constructive and introduce two new graphical concepts -- imaginary subsets and isolated edges -- that may be useful in their own right. As a matter of independent interest, the proofs also involve a novel characterization of the limits of edge orientations within the equivalence class of DAGs induced by unknown interventions. These are the first results to characterize the conditions under which causal representations are identifiable without making any parametric assumptions in a general setting with unknown interventions and without faithfulness.

This paper introduces a novel approach for multi-task regression that connects Kernel Machines (KMs) and Extreme Learning Machines (ELMs) through the exploitation of the Random Fourier Features (RFFs) approximation of the RBF kernel. In this sense, one of the contributions of this paper shows that for the proposed models, the KM and the ELM formulations can be regarded as two sides of the same coin. These proposed models, termed RFF-BLR, stand on a Bayesian framework that simultaneously addresses two main design goals. On the one hand, it fits multitask regressors based on KMs endowed with RBF kernels. On the other hand, it enables the introduction of a common-across-tasks prior that promotes multioutput sparsity in the ELM view. This Bayesian approach facilitates the simultaneous consideration of both the KM and ELM perspectives enabling (i) the optimisation of the RBF kernel parameter $\gamma$ within a probabilistic framework, (ii) the optimisation of the model complexity, and (iii) an efficient transfer of knowledge across tasks. The experimental results show that this framework can lead to significant performance improvements compared to the state-of-the-art methods in multitask nonlinear regression.

A common assumption in causal inference from observational data is that there is no hidden confounding. Yet it is, in general, impossible to verify this assumption from a single dataset. Under the assumption of independent causal mechanisms underlying the data-generating process, we demonstrate a way to detect unobserved confounders when having multiple observational datasets coming from different environments. We present a theory for testable conditional independencies that are only absent when there is hidden confounding and examine cases where we violate its assumptions: degenerate & dependent mechanisms, and faithfulness violations. Additionally, we propose a procedure to test these independencies and study its empirical finite-sample behavior using simulation studies and semi-synthetic data based on a real-world dataset. In most cases, the proposed procedure correctly predicts the presence of hidden confounding, particularly when the confounding bias is large.

Sampling a probability distribution with an unknown normalization constant is a fundamental problem in computational science and engineering. This task may be cast as an optimization problem over all probability measures, and an initial distribution can be evolved to the desired minimizer dynamically via gradient flows. Mean-field models, whose law is governed by the gradient flow in the space of probability measures, may also be identified; particle approximations of these mean-field models form the basis of algorithms. The gradient flow approach is also the basis of algorithms for variational inference, in which the optimization is performed over a parameterized family of probability distributions such as Gaussians, and the underlying gradient flow is restricted to the parameterized family. By choosing different energy functionals and metrics for the gradient flow, different algorithms with different convergence properties arise. In this paper, we concentrate on the Kullback-Leibler divergence after showing that, up to scaling, it has the unique property that the gradient flows resulting from this choice of energy do not depend on the normalization constant. For the metrics, we focus on variants of the Fisher-Rao, Wasserstein, and Stein metrics; we introduce the affine invariance property for gradient flows, and their corresponding mean-field models, determine whether a given metric leads to affine invariance, and modify it to make it affine invariant if it does not. We study the resulting gradient flows in both probability density space and Gaussian space. The flow in the Gaussian space may be understood as a Gaussian approximation of the flow. We demonstrate that the Gaussian approximation based on the metric and through moment closure coincide, establish connections between them, and study their long-time convergence properties showing the advantages of affine invariance.

Variational autoencoders and Helmholtz machines use a recognition network (encoder) to approximate the posterior distribution of a generative model (decoder). In this paper we study the necessary and sufficient properties of a recognition network so that it can model the true posterior distribution exactly. These results are derived in the general context of probabilistic graphical modelling / Bayesian networks, for which the network represents a set of conditional independence statements. We derive both global conditions, in terms of d-separation, and local conditions for the recognition network to have the desired qualities. It turns out that for the local conditions the property perfectness (for every node, all parents are joined) plays an important role.

While robust graph neural networks (GNNs) have been widely studied for graph perturbation and attack, those for label noise have received significantly less attention. Most existing methods heavily rely on the label smoothness assumption to correct noisy labels, which adversely affects their performance on heterophilous graphs. Further, they generally perform poorly in high noise-rate scenarios. To address these problems, in this paper, we propose a novel probabilistic graphical model (PGM) based framework LNP. Given a noisy label set and a clean label set, our goal is to maximize the likelihood of labels in the clean set. We first present LNP-v1, which generates clean labels based on graphs only in the Bayesian network. To further leverage the information of clean labels in the noisy label set, we put forward LNP-v2, which incorporates the noisy label set into the Bayesian network to generate clean labels. The generative process can then be used to predict labels for unlabeled nodes. We conduct extensive experiments to show the robustness of LNP on varying noise types and rates, and also on graphs with different heterophilies. In particular, we show that LNP can lead to inspiring performance in high noise-rate situations.