Uncertainty
Bandit Social Learning: Exploration under Myopic Behavior
Banihashem, Kiarash, Hajiaghayi, MohammadTaghi, Shin, Suho, Slivkins, Aleksandrs
Reviews and ratings are pervasive in many online platforms. A customer consults reviews/ratings, then chooses a product and then (often) leaves feedback, which is aggregated by the platform and served to future customers. Collectively, customers face a tradeoff between exploration and exploitation, i.e., between acquiring new information while making potentially suboptimal decisions and making optimal decisions using available information. However, individual customers tend to act myopically and favor exploitation, without regards to exploration for the sake of the others. On a high level, we ask whether/how the myopic behavior interferes with efficient exploration. We are particularly interested in learning failures when only a few agents choose an optimal action.
Sampling via Gradient Flows in the Space of Probability Measures
Chen, Yifan, Huang, Daniel Zhengyu, Huang, Jiaoyang, Reich, Sebastian, Stuart, Andrew M
Sampling a target probability distribution with an unknown normalization constant is a fundamental challenge in computational science and engineering. Recent work shows that algorithms derived by considering gradient flows in the space of probability measures open up new avenues for algorithm development. This paper makes three contributions to this sampling approach by scrutinizing the design components of such gradient flows. Any instantiation of a gradient flow for sampling needs an energy functional and a metric to determine the flow, as well as numerical approximations of the flow to derive algorithms. Our first contribution is to show that the Kullback-Leibler divergence, as an energy functional, has the unique property (among all f-divergences) that gradient flows resulting from it do not depend on the normalization constant of the target distribution. Our second contribution is to study the choice of metric from the perspective of invariance. The Fisher-Rao metric is known as the unique choice (up to scaling) that is diffeomorphism invariant. As a computationally tractable alternative, we introduce a relaxed, affine invariance property for the metrics and gradient flows. In particular, we construct various affine invariant Wasserstein and Stein gradient flows. Affine invariant gradient flows are shown to behave more favorably than their non-affine-invariant counterparts when sampling highly anisotropic distributions, in theory and by using particle methods. Our third contribution is to study, and develop efficient algorithms based on Gaussian approximations of the gradient flows; this leads to an alternative to particle methods. We establish connections between various Gaussian approximate gradient flows, discuss their relation to gradient methods arising from parametric variational inference, and study their convergence properties both theoretically and numerically.
Learning Sparse Codes with Entropy-Based ELBOs
Velychko, Dmytro, Damm, Simon, Fischer, Asja, Lücke, Jörg
Standard probabilistic sparse coding assumes a Laplace prior, a linear mapping from latents to observables, and Gaussian observable distributions. We here derive a solely entropy-based learning objective for the parameters of standard sparse coding. The novel variational objective has the following features: (A) unlike MAP approximations, it uses non-trivial posterior approximations for probabilistic inference; (B) unlike for previous non-trivial approximations, the novel objective is fully analytical; and (C) the objective allows for a novel principled form of annealing. The objective is derived by first showing that the standard ELBO objective converges to a sum of entropies, which matches similar recent results for generative models with Gaussian priors. The conditions under which the ELBO becomes equal to entropies are then shown to have analytical solutions, which leads to the fully analytical objective. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the feasibility of learning with such entropy-based ELBOs. We investigate different posterior approximations including Gaussians with correlated latents and deep amortized approximations. Furthermore, we numerically investigate entropy-based annealing which results in improved learning. Our main contributions are theoretical, however, and they are twofold: (1) for non-trivial posterior approximations, we provide the (to the knowledge of the authors) first analytical ELBO objective for standard probabilistic sparse coding; and (2) we provide the first demonstration on how a recently shown convergence of the ELBO to entropy sums can be used for learning.
Causal Models Applied to the Patterns of Human Migration due to Climate Change
Lai, Kenneth, Yanushkevich, Svetlana
The impacts of mass migration, such as crisis induced by climate change, extend beyond environmental concerns and can greatly affect social infrastructure and public services, such as education, healthcare, and security. These crises exacerbate certain elements like cultural barriers, and discrimination by amplifying the challenges faced by these affected communities. This paper proposes an innovative approach to address migration crises in the context of crisis management through a combination of modeling and imbalance assessment tools. By employing deep learning for forecasting and integrating causal reasoning via Bayesian networks, this methodology enables the evaluation of imbalances and risks in the socio-technological landscape, providing crucial insights for informed decision-making. Through this framework, critical systems can be analyzed to understand how fluctuations in migration levels may impact them, facilitating effective crisis governance strategies.
Intelligent Stress Assessment for e-Coaching
Lai, Kenneth, Yanushkevich, Svetlana, Shmerko, Vlad
Abstract--This paper considers the adaptation of the e-continuously learn the user's stress pattern in order to adjust The measure of usefulness includes accuracy, among others. As stated in In this paper, two-stage intelligent processing, as seen in [3], e-coaching "may contribute to a better understanding of Figure 1, is used: people's affective responses to the COVID-19 crisis. Stage I is aimed at gathering physiological information legal, and social implications are addressed appropriately, from a subject for human decision-making (reasoning). Stage II is aimed at supporting the human decisionmaker society by monitoring and improving people's mental health". Typical symptoms include anxiety, panic, avoidance, and stress.
Towards model-free RL algorithms that scale well with unstructured data
Modayil, Joseph, Abbas, Zaheer
Conventional reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms exhibit broad generality in their theoretical formulation and high performance on several challenging domains when combined with powerful function approximation. However, developing RL algorithms that perform well across problems with unstructured observations at scale remains challenging because most function approximation methods rely on externally provisioned knowledge about the structure of the input for good performance (e.g. convolutional networks, graph neural networks, tile-coding). A common practice in RL is to evaluate algorithms on a single problem, or on problems with limited variation in the observation scale. RL practitioners lack a systematic way to study how well a single RL algorithm performs when instantiated across a range of problem scales, and they lack function approximation techniques that scale well with unstructured observations. We address these limitations by providing environments and algorithms to study scaling for unstructured observation vectors and flat action spaces. We introduce a family of combinatorial RL problems with an exponentially large state space and high-dimensional dynamics but where linear computation is sufficient to learn a (nonlinear) value function estimate for performant control. We provide an algorithm that constructs reward-relevant general value function (GVF) questions to find and exploit predictive structure directly from the experience stream. In an empirical evaluation of the approach on synthetic problems, we observe a sample complexity that scales linearly with the observation size. The proposed algorithm reliably outperforms a conventional deep RL algorithm on these scaling problems, and they exhibit several desirable auxiliary properties. These results suggest new algorithmic mechanisms by which algorithms can learn at scale from unstructured data.
Joint Composite Latent Space Bayesian Optimization
Maus, Natalie, Lin, Zhiyuan Jerry, Balandat, Maximilian, Bakshy, Eytan
Bayesian Optimization (BO) is a technique for sample-efficient black-box optimization that employs probabilistic models to identify promising input locations for evaluation. When dealing with composite-structured functions, such as f=g o h, evaluating a specific location x yields observations of both the final outcome f(x) = g(h(x)) as well as the intermediate output(s) h(x). Previous research has shown that integrating information from these intermediate outputs can enhance BO performance substantially. However, existing methods struggle if the outputs h(x) are high-dimensional. Many relevant problems fall into this setting, including in the context of generative AI, molecular design, or robotics. To effectively tackle these challenges, we introduce Joint Composite Latent Space Bayesian Optimization (JoCo), a novel framework that jointly trains neural network encoders and probabilistic models to adaptively compress high-dimensional input and output spaces into manageable latent representations. This enables viable BO on these compressed representations, allowing JoCo to outperform other state-of-the-art methods in high-dimensional BO on a wide variety of simulated and real-world problems.
Client Orchestration and Cost-Efficient Joint Optimization for NOMA-Enabled Hierarchical Federated Learning
Wu, Bibo, Fang, Fang, Wang, Xianbin, Cai, Donghong, Fu, Shu, Ding, Zhiguo
Hierarchical federated learning (HFL) shows great advantages over conventional two-layer federated learning (FL) in reducing network overhead and interaction latency while still retaining the data privacy of distributed FL clients. However, the communication and energy overhead still pose a bottleneck for HFL performance, especially as the number of clients raises dramatically. To tackle this issue, we propose a non-orthogonal multiple access (NOMA) enabled HFL system under semi-synchronous cloud model aggregation in this paper, aiming to minimize the total cost of time and energy at each HFL global round. Specifically, we first propose a novel fuzzy logic based client orchestration policy considering client heterogenerity in multiple aspects, including channel quality, data quantity and model staleness. Subsequently, given the fuzzy based client-edge association, a joint edge server scheduling and resource allocation problem is formulated. Utilizing problem decomposition, we firstly derive the closed-form solution for the edge server scheduling subproblem via the penalty dual decomposition (PDD) method. Next, a deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG) based algorithm is proposed to tackle the resource allocation subproblem considering time-varying environments. Finally, extensive simulations demonstrate that the proposed scheme outperforms the considered benchmarks regarding HFL performance improvement and total cost reduction.
Active Reasoning in an Open-World Environment
Xu, Manjie, Jiang, Guangyuan, Liang, Wei, Zhang, Chi, Zhu, Yixin
Recent advances in vision-language learning have achieved notable success on complete-information question-answering datasets through the integration of extensive world knowledge. Yet, most models operate passively, responding to questions based on pre-stored knowledge. In stark contrast, humans possess the ability to actively explore, accumulate, and reason using both newfound and existing information to tackle incomplete-information questions. In response to this gap, we introduce $Conan$, an interactive open-world environment devised for the assessment of active reasoning. $Conan$ facilitates active exploration and promotes multi-round abductive inference, reminiscent of rich, open-world settings like Minecraft. Diverging from previous works that lean primarily on single-round deduction via instruction following, $Conan$ compels agents to actively interact with their surroundings, amalgamating new evidence with prior knowledge to elucidate events from incomplete observations. Our analysis on $Conan$ underscores the shortcomings of contemporary state-of-the-art models in active exploration and understanding complex scenarios. Additionally, we explore Abduction from Deduction, where agents harness Bayesian rules to recast the challenge of abduction as a deductive process. Through $Conan$, we aim to galvanize advancements in active reasoning and set the stage for the next generation of artificial intelligence agents adept at dynamically engaging in environments.
Trust-Preserved Human-Robot Shared Autonomy enabled by Bayesian Relational Event Modeling
Shared autonomy functions as a flexible framework that empowers robots to operate across a spectrum of autonomy levels, allowing for efficient task execution with minimal human oversight. However, humans might be intimidated by the autonomous decision-making capabilities of robots due to perceived risks and a lack of trust. This paper proposed a trust-preserved shared autonomy strategy that grants robots to seamlessly adjust their autonomy level, striving to optimize team performance and enhance their acceptance among human collaborators. By enhancing the Relational Event Modeling framework with Bayesian learning techniques, this paper enables dynamic inference of human trust based solely on time-stamped relational events within human-robot teams. Adopting a longitudinal perspective on trust development and calibration in human-robot teams, the proposed shared autonomy strategy warrants robots to preserve human trust by not only passively adapting to it but also actively participating in trust repair when violations occur. We validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach through a user study on human-robot collaborative search and rescue scenarios. The objective and subjective evaluations demonstrate its merits over teleoperation on both task execution and user acceptability.